John Sickels farm system rankings

[icehole3]

argue what, it's only a wish, not allowed to wish???

[jojo]

Originally Posted by icehole3

argue what, it's only a wish, not allowed to wish???

I'm honestly curious about your thoughts because, to me, the table Doug posted suggests the best way to add value to your farm is through drafting position players. I'd love to hear your take is all-maybe I'm thinking about it the wrong way.

[nmculbreth]

Originally Posted by jojo

I'm honestly curious about your thoughts because, to me, the table Doug posted suggests the best way to add value to your farm is through drafting position players. I'd love to hear your take is all-maybe I'm thinking about it the wrong way.

This is my take as well. Given that there is a greater gap in value between elite position player and the second / third tier position players than there is between the elite pitchers and their second / third tier counterparts, it seems that if a club wanted to maximize the value of their draft picks they'd try to use their early round picks to acquire impact position players and focus on pitching afterward.

I'm not sure how anyone could use this data to support drafting nothing but pitching at the top of every draft...

[dougdirt]

From the historical data, it looks like it would probably be a good idea to take a hitter in spots 1-60 in the draft, then gravitate toward pitchers for a while. The C grade pitchers tend to have quite a bit more value than the C type hitters.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I suppose I'm just a bonehead but I don't get what you have going on here Doug. I understand what your trying to say but the numbers don't seem to make sense. Could you please enlighten me?

Each player gets paid X amount of money once they reach the majors. What the value is, is the amount of money they were worth over what they were actually paid. For example, Ryan Braun so far in his career. He has made $1.8M as a major leaguer. He has been worth $51.6 over that time, so his surplus value was 51.6-1.8=$49.8.

What Wang did was figure out every player just like that who got these grades/rankings from John Sickels and Baseball America. The numbers shown are what the average person with that player/grade has been worth in a surplus dollar value over their 'controlled' years (typically the first 6 seasons).

I then just ran the grades of those guys and gave each player a value from Wang's research in order to figure out which farm system was 'best'.

[nmculbreth]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Each player gets paid X amount of money once they reach the majors. What the value is, is the amount of money they were worth over what they were actually paid. For example, Ryan Braun so far in his career. He has made $1.8M as a major leaguer. He has been worth $51.6 over that time, so his surplus value was 51.6-1.8=$49.8.

What Wang did was figure out every player just like that who got these grades/rankings from John Sickels and Baseball America. The numbers shown are what the average person with that player/grade has been worth in a surplus dollar value over their 'controlled' years (typically the first 6 seasons).

I then just ran the grades of those guys and gave each player a value from Wang's research in order to figure out which farm system was 'best'.

Interesting.

The only problem I can see with this methodology is that you're trying to use one data point (a player's current rating) and do a lot of extrapolation. That may work well for players at the end of their development process, say Matt Maloney, but I question how well it works for players at the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Take the case of Yorman Rodriguez. Sickels currently has him graded out as a C prospect but given his age it seems safe to assume that his grade will fluctuate over time and if he is able to live up to his ability, he'll grade out much higher when he is close to matriculation. The question then becomes how do you pinpoint his value?

[jojo]

Originally Posted by nmculbreth

Interesting.

The only problem I can see with this methodology is that you're trying to use one data point (a player's current rating) and do a lot of extrapolation. That may work well for players at the end of their development process, say Matt Maloney, but I question how well it works for players at the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Take the case of Yorman Rodriguez. Sickels currently has him graded out as a C prospect but given his age it seems safe to assume that his grade will fluctuate over time and if he is able to live up to his ability, he'll grade out much higher when he is close to matriculation. The question then becomes how do you pinpoint his value?

To me, i'd like to see the spread around the means in order to get a better handle on how much risk is associated with each category's dollar values......

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by nmculbreth

Interesting.

The only problem I can see with this methodology is that you're trying to use one data point (a player's current rating) and do a lot of extrapolation. That may work well for players at the end of their development process, say Matt Maloney, but I question how well it works for players at the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Take the case of Yorman Rodriguez. Sickels currently has him graded out as a C prospect but given his age it seems safe to assume that his grade will fluctuate over time and if he is able to live up to his ability, he'll grade out much higher when he is close to matriculation. The question then becomes how do you pinpoint his value?

Clearly there is a lot of give in the rankings and data. For example, Ryan Braun is clearly going to be worth a lot more than his grade would have suggested (already $19M ahead). That means someone was well below as well. This really just gives us more of a baseline to work with than anything else.

Yorman Rodriguez is an outlier to things of course. With the way Sickels handed him, if we assume he was the best C grade prospect out there and was behind all A or B grade pitchers, at best Sickels has him rated as the 362nd best prospect in baseball. I think most would clearly disagree with that rating. But it is what it is. Just a way to objectively look at farm system rankings without a lot of the hoopla.

[BoxingRed]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Alonso = Edgar Martinez

Alonzo= Travis Hafner IMHO

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by BoxingRed

Alonzo= Travis Hafner IMHO

also in response to Alonso = Edgar Martinez...

Alonzo is a fine 1B while both of these guys are atrocious in the field...how are these comparisons even arrived at?

Bum

[Lockdwn11]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

also in response to Alonso = Edgar Martinez...

Alonzo is a fine 1B while both of these guys are atrocious in the field...how are these comparisons even arrived at?

Bum

I don't think I have seen anyone say that Alonzo was a FINE 1B. Well besides you. Passable yes but "fine" no but he is pretty young and could improve in the field

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by Lockdwn11

I don't think I have seen anyone say that Alonzo was a FINE 1B. Well besides you. Passable yes but "fine" no.

Where have you seen anyone say he is below average defensively? Where has anyone said anything that would lead one to think he is a DH-only? Those are my questions. Fine can mean a lot of things, but when he starts getting compared to DH-only type players there should be something that triggers it. Where is the trigger? Personally, I have an opinion on why people say that but I don't believe it has anything to do with Alonzo or his talent.

Bum

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Bumstead

Where have you seen anyone say he is below average defensively? Where has anyone said anything that would lead one to think he is a DH-only? Those are my questions. Fine can mean a lot of things, but when he starts getting compared to DH-only type players there should be something that triggers it. Where is the trigger? Personally, I have an opinion on why people say that but I don't believe it has anything to do with Alonzo or his talent.

Bum

I think he has some on the bag glove issues, something that's correctible but he certainly doesn't appear comfortable in that respect and who knows if he ever will. Also his range (compared to other 1st baseman) is average at best and could get worse as he goes. Shabby glove + ever worsening range could eventually force him to DH well before it should.

[Bumstead]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I think he has some on the bag glove issues, something that's correctible but he certainly doesn't appear comfortable in that respect and who knows if he ever will. Also his range (compared to other 1st baseman) is average at best and could get worse as he goes. Shabby glove + ever worsening range could eventually force him to DH well before it should.

His range last season was similar to Votto's (Alonso RF/G 8.74; Votto RF/G 8.16). Where do you get the "on the bag glove issues?" Thin air? Or is there a real source? Everyone's range "could" get worse as they go...easy statement to make...source?

Bum

[lollipopcurve]

Alonso is not considered a good defender. Not necessarily poor, but a bit shaky. Anybody see the televised AFL game where he whiffed on a couple throws (these were balls in the air, one a simple pickoff, not balls in the dirt)? Maybe the lighting was bad, I don't know, but you almost never see a 1B whiff on plays like that.