Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects - and a shocker

[lollipopcurve]

The rankings have always favored Smoak because he's a switch hitter and is said to play better defense.

Only time will tell.

[New Fever]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I'm not sure how recent some of those grads are.

I don't think that Stubbs would be very high on the list.

I am speaking about drafts only.

We've had better than average draft positioning over the past few years so, all things being equal, we should have better than average performance. 2 draftees in the top 101 sucks.

KG loves Stubbs he would have been in the Top 50 on this list easy. He ranked Stubbs #4 in the system under 25 list, ahead of Cueto, Leake, Frazier. He was only behind Bailey, Bruce, and Chapman.

[RedsManRick]

A few Alonso tidbits from Goldstein:

Lincoln (Dallas): You've been reasonaly high on Yonder Alonso in the past, what made him drop off the list this time when a guy like Carter is so high?

Kevin Goldstein: The fact that he showed little power and did utterly nothing against lefties. I've written many times my feelings on first base prospects. If you don't look like some kind of No. 3 or 4 hitter on a championship level team, just how good of a first base prospect are you?

Doug (Cincinnati): So you are down on Alonso for not showing power (despite slugging nearly .500 in the FSL) but love Justin Smoak for slugging .440 in the PCL and Texas League combined, while hitting lefties just as bad as Alonso did in 2009? Care to go into that one?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure. Smoak is a much, much better pure HITTER than Alonso, and more scouts believe in Smoak's power blossoming than those that believe in Alonso's.

I'm guessing I know who that Doug is... I wonder what he means by "HITTER". What sort of performance difference will that make? It must be nice to never have to back up an argument with numbers....

Here's what I don't understand (and I submitted questions in the chat accordingly)

Aaron (YYZ): Brett Wallace: Offensive dynamo or younger, cheaper Lyle Overbay?

Kevin Goldstein: You stole my Brett Wallace comp!

1B prospect Brett Wallace is ranked #44 overall. Lyle Overbay has an .812 career OPS and has eclipsed .850 just twice. Clearly that is not "some kind of No. 3 or 4 hitter on a championship level team" territory. What gives, Kevin?

[OnBaseMachine]

Great catch Rick. I overlooked Brett Wallace. Give me Yonder Alonso over Wallace any day of the week.

[lollipopcurve]

I'd rather Reds prospects get underhyped than overhyped -- it motivates.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm guessing I know who that Doug is...

If you guessed me, then you guessed right. Its just all confusing. Everything we have ever seen/read/heard says Alonso is flat out a pure hitter. If Smoak is that much better, is he going to be Ted Williams? Last season KG said Alonso's ceiling was .300/.400/.550. Somewhere this season that turned into less than an .800 OPS or so given where Brett Wallace is ranked.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If you guessed me, then you guessed right. Its just all confusing. Everything we have ever seen/read/heard says Alonso is flat out a pure hitter. If Smoak is that much better, is he going to be Ted Williams? Last season KG said Alonso's ceiling was .300/.400/.550. Somewhere this season that turned into less than an .800 OPS or so given where Brett Wallace is ranked.

I think the combination of the AA performance, the wrist injury, and the lefties split issue have significantly reduced Goldstein's expectation that Alonso will reach that ceiling. Mostly just one of those "gut" calls where the warts trumped the pedigree in his mind.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I think the combination of the AA performance, the wrist injury, and the lefties split issue have significantly reduced Goldstein's expectation that Alonso will reach that ceiling. Mostly just one of those "gut" calls where the warts trumped the pedigree in his mind.

Sure, but it still doesn't explain the combo of AA/AAA performance for Smoak, which was worse than Alonso's (.861 OPS for Alonso - .853 for Smoak) despite Smoak playing in two much more friendly run environments, or Smoak hitting lefties just as bad as Alonso did.

[Benihana]

Trade Joey Votto!

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Sure, but it still doesn't explain the combo of AA/AAA performance for Smoak, which was worse than Alonso's (.861 OPS for Alonso - .853 for Smoak) despite Smoak playing in two much more friendly run environments, or Smoak hitting lefties just as bad as Alonso did.

Run friendly? Maybe.

But it's also two levels ahead. Don't forget that.

I'd take a guy who OPSed .50 points lower in run friendly GAB than a guy who in the pitching friendly Southern League, especially if they were the same age.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Run friendly? Maybe.

But it's also two levels ahead. Don't forget that.

I'd take a guy who OPSed .200 points lower in run friendly GAB than a guy who in the pitching friendly Southern League, especially if they were the same age.

Smoak was only 1 level ahead. Alonso was at A+ and AA, Smoak at AA and AAA. He also played in a largely different league setting. The difference between where Alonso was playing and where Smoak was playing is about the difference between Petco and GABP. Alonso still out hit him.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Smoak was only 1 level ahead. Alonso was at A+ and AA, Smoak at AA and AAA. He also played in a largely different league setting. The difference between where Alonso was playing and where Smoak was playing is about the difference between Petco and GABP. Alonso still out hit him.

Don't buy it, not for a second.

Smoak OPS'ed .930 in AA. Alonso OPS'ed .820 in AA.

Where was he outhit?

Smoak switch-hits, plays better defense, and has always been considered a better prospect by at least 90% of analysts, including prior to the draft. Smoak has mashed in AA, whereas Alonso was underwhelming. Where is the comparison?

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Smoak was only 1 level ahead. Alonso was at A+ and AA, Smoak at AA and AAA. He also played in a largely different league setting. The difference between where Alonso was playing and where Smoak was playing is about the difference between Petco and GABP. Alonso still out hit him.

Isn't Smoak a plus defender?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Don't buy it, not for a second.

Smoak OPS'ed .930 in AA. Alonso OPS'ed .820 in AA.

Where was he outhit?

Smoak switch-hits, plays better defense, and has always been considered a better prospect by at least 90% of analysts, including prior to the draft. Smoak has mashed in AA, whereas Alonso was underwhelming. Where is the comparison?

Smoak after his injury fell apart in AAA (sounds just like Alonso, but one level lower). Smoak may switch hit, but he can't hit lefties (at least not if you think Alonso can't hit lefties - peripherals and numbers are almost exactly the same vs lefties). Smoak plays better defense, but its a small amount better. Pre draft reports on Smoak having plus defense were far exaggerated and still hang around some for some reason. Is Smoak a better prospect? I can buy the argument that he is, though I think if he is its by a small amount. The comparison is that we have two guys with extremely similar skills who beat up a league in the first half, got injured and then didn't perform as well after the injury in the second half who both play the same position and have not proven they can hit lefties (though I believe both will be able to in time). One guy goes from a .950 OPS ceiling (KG said this last year on Alonso) to a guy at least 58 spots behind another first baseman who was compared to Lyle Overbay (Brett Wallace), while Justin Smoak stays a Top 20 prospect.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Isn't Smoak a plus defender?

No. There were some reports pre draft about that and well, its simply not true. Right now he is an average first baseman.