Who will be the best overall pitcher at AAA

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Betterread

Why would Leake be pushed to AAA and Cincinnati (unless there is a current starter traded?) when he is #3 or #4 starter?
I think he will spend a lot of time in AA this year and very likely even start out at high A, unless his stuff is a lot better this year than previously advertised.

Leake has 3 above average pitches with his fastball (good moving 88-92 MPH that touches 94), a plus slider, a plus change up and he also throws a curveball that is at least an average pitch. All of which he can throw for strikes. Toss in his plus control and his upside is incredibly understated.

[klw]

I would not be surprised to see Leake start at AA and Chapman at Lynchburg with the expectation they will quickly be bumped up to AAA. (Maybe by May) Sending Chapmen to the new affiliate make good PR sense to build brand loyalty and allows him to start in a low pressure environment. Of course if his performance may make it impossible to start him that low.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by TRF

I am probably the only person that thinks Chapman might spend the whole year in Louisville. I really think Maloney is going to surprise a lot of people as the Reds 5th starter.

Im pretty sure he will spend some time in Cincy. That being the time he spends after rosters expand in Sept. I just don't see any way the Reds don't bring him up to Cincy this season. I do agree that he spends the meaningful part of the season in the minors.

[mace]

I still find it astonishing that, out of 51 votes, there's not a single one for Justin Lehr. I mean, the question is who will have the best season at AAA. Over the last two years at Louisville, Lehr is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA. This year, after skipping winter ball, he is reportedly stronger. He is also a longshot to make the Reds, which means that he'll probably again be working in a league that he has apparently mastered.

That said, I didn't vote for him, either (although it was a close call). It certainly speaks to the compelling concentration of talent at that level. It's just weird that he would be so neglected . . .

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Betterread

Why would Leake be pushed to AAA and Cincinnati (unless there is a current starter traded?) when he is #3 or #4 starter?
I think he will spend a lot of time in AA this year and very likely even start out at high A, unless his stuff is a lot better this year than previously advertised.

Leake has great stuff. As Doug said, he's got four quality pitches and plus-plus command. Great stuff isn't just defined by how hard you throw. Don't expect to see him in High-A because the Reds have already said he'll begin the season in Double-A Carolina.

[OnBaseMachine]

Article on Travis Wood from Louisville's website:

http://louisville.bats.milb.com/news...=.jsp&sid=t416

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Leake has 3 above average pitches with his fastball (good moving 88-92 MPH that touches 94), a plus slider, a plus change up and he also throws a curveball that is at least an average pitch. All of which he can throw for strikes. Toss in his plus control and his upside is incredibly understated.

That sounds awesome. We have no-one at the ML level with 3 plus pitches and plus control. You make him sound like a surefire ace. Let's hope so.

[Degenerate39]

I doubt Chapman will be in Triple A for much more than 2 or 3 starts. I think he'll be in a lower class to begin with then get moved up for Triple A for a the last few weeks then when June comes around he'll be with the Reds

[Scrap Irony]

If Chapman continues to pitch well, he's going to be the fifth starter in Cincinnati at the beginning of the season. Cincinnati brass will insist he'll sell tickets (and he may), while the on-field staff likes his talent.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Leake has 3 above average pitches with his fastball (good moving 88-92 MPH that touches 94), a plus slider, a plus change up and he also throws a curveball that is at least an average pitch. All of which he can throw for strikes. Toss in his plus control and his upside is incredibly understated.

Chapman hit 100 MPH today. His slider moved more than a foot. You and OBM say Leake has better stuff than that. I really want to see what Leake that is better than that.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Betterread

Chapman hit 100 MPH today. His slider moved more than a foot. You and OBM say Leake has better stuff than that. I really want to see what Leake that is better than that.

Um, no where did I say Leake had better stuff than Chapman. I'm not sure where in the world you came up with that idea.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Um, no where did I say Leake had better stuff than Chapman. I'm not sure where in the world you came up with that idea.

Ditto.

[BLEEDS]

Originally Posted by Degenerate39

I doubt Chapman will be in Triple A for much more than 2 or 3 starts. I think he'll be in a lower class to begin with then get moved up for Triple A for a the last few weeks then when June comes around he'll be with the Reds

I believe you are spot-on. This is the best case scenario.

The same talk is being bantered about re: Strasburg. Give your affiliates a bone - let him play some games at AA and then AAA, early in the season when people don't really get excited for MiLB.
Let him prove that MiL hitters pose him no challenge, then bring him up.

In our case there's the little issue of saving $10-$15M and perhaps another year of control under his current contract.
Also, I think the "cultural" adaption is something that has not been brought up much. I think he will feel MORE comfortable with the Big League team - there are more guys that speak spanish there, etc... although starting out in the Majors he doesn't get a feel for the "transition" from Cuba to the BrightLights/BigCity that being a major leaguer commands, let him get a taste of the minor leagues first, to get an appreciation.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[TRF]

Chapman is under the Reds control for 6 years, regardless of when he is called up. His contract has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe there is nothing in his contract that can void the MLB players agreement regarding control of a player. All his contract does is change from salary to bonus money regarding his arbitration status.

Potentially, IF he reached his ceiling right away, it could cost the Reds an additional 10-15 mil over the life of his current contract, or what comes to an additional 3 million per year. If it goes the full 6 years, we are talking $45 mil over 5 years. He'll be paid 1 mil for this year. And if he does indeed reach said ceiling this year and maintains it, it averages 9 mil per year, but the big money won't take place until, what year 3? 4? Well after Harang, Arroyo and possibly even BP come off the books. Rolen too.

I am soooo not worried about the contract. IMO it should be a non issue, especially regarding his development.

The Reds retain his rights for six years (I believe) regardless. I really think there needs to be a sticky just for chapman's contract.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

Chapman is under the Reds control for 6 years, regardless of when he is called up. His contract has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe there is nothing in his contract that can void the MLB players agreement regarding control of a player. All his contract does is change from salary to bonus money regarding his arbitration status.

Potentially, IF he reached his ceiling right away, it could cost the Reds an additional 10-15 mil over the life of his current contract, or what comes to an additional 3 million per year. If it goes the full 6 years, we are talking $45 mil over 5 years. He'll be paid 1 mil for this year. And if he does indeed reach said ceiling this year and maintains it, it averages 9 mil per year, but the big money won't take place until, what year 3? 4? Well after Harang, Arroyo and possibly even BP come off the books. Rolen too.

I am soooo not worried about the contract. IMO it should be a non issue, especially regarding his development.

The Reds retain his rights for six years (I believe) regardless. I really think there needs to be a sticky just for chapman's contract.

However just like everything else. If the Reds wait until June 1st to call him up they can control his first 6 years as 2011-2016 rather than 2010-2015. That is likely a very large difference. You also run the risk of him becoming a Super 2, which would put him at just 5 years, so perhaps 2010-2014 is all we get.