Drew Stubbs

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Firstly, neither Patterson nor Taveras would be on my team.

I never thought of that to begin the questions, I should have known that. I mean I am sure that those two (Patterson/Taveras) came with red flags and bells going off attached to themselves before ever getting to Cincinnati.

And if they were on my team, they'd primarily have been defensive replacements and pinch runners. When they did bat, they would have bat low in the order. Patterson 7th or 8th, Taveras 9th. Stubbs would be batting 7th or 8th. He's struggled mightily, but I'm not going to render on a judgement until he's had another few hundred PA. It's not like we have other options beating down our door and he does have potential.

That's right, he does have to have a lot more PA/AB to even begin to see what he really might be. I believe in Stubbs. We know he is an outstanding CF, and I am pretty sure that most of us think that he is better than the two predecessors in center which helps the pitching, to me that is a big deal.

I would caution us to not lump Taveras with Patterson and Stubbs. Taveras is Juan Pierre with only good contact rates instead of elite ones. Patterson and Stubbs are more similar, in that they both have power potential, but are hampered in their ability to use it due low contact rates resulting from a long swing. The difference between the two is that Stubbs has better discipline than Patterson, which gives him a better shot of sticking.

However, unless and until Stubbs starts making more contact on balls in the zone, he's got no shot. His contact rate is 4th lowest in baseball. While you can get away with low contact rates if you have great plate discipline and prodigious power, his discipline is merely good and he's not found a way to consistently hit for power. The 3 guys below him: Reynolds, Blanks and Upton (Justin). The 3 above him Kemp, Dunn and Hamilton.

I think that Stubbs should have been allowed to get acclimated, to get some time and experience against the pitchers that he faces at this level, and down in the order where there is less pressure, and a bit less lime light or demands on him to approach the leadoff a bit differently than he might have to down below. Not to mention giving time for his confidence to grow vs maybe hurting it in the leadoff. Of course I can't support that his swing or contact rates would improve down below, but I would really like to see what he can do with more time and adjusting down there. Of course by suggesting that it says that I believe that he will do better and grow from there.

Bottom line, I don't think the Reds have a better CF option right now than Stubbs (unless you count Bruce, which the Reds don't), so he should be playing every day. But it's not a good idea to continue batting him leadoff everyday. Speed is more valuable lower in the lineup (where bases are harder to advance and less costly to lose) and we should be giving more PA to our best hitters. I'd be playing Hanigan 4 days a week and leading him off when he plays. When Hernandez plays, push Phillips to leadoff, Rolen to 2nd.

Stubbs is it. I just think that they could utilize his time to adjust to how they are pitching him at this level better down in the order.

I think that I understand why you say Hanigan and Rolen.

Me with the way the team is short as made up, unless Votto really rejected strongly, I would have moved him to left for days when Hanigan is catching and played Hernandez at first, then loaded the OBP SLG to get the most PA/AB and worked the splits some depending on the left or right. Phillips I think will adjust and adapt hitting either one or two. If he can, he will.

I like the idea of switching the catchers back and forth to keep them fresher in the catching duties. I want run support for the pitching too. I don't want them thinking they have to be perfect, because that isn't going to happen.

Nothing absolute or in stone, all with adapting and adjusting in mind as it comes.

[mth123]

Drew Stubbs is like the Thanksgiving meal that was removed from the oven before it was finished cooking. If it was left to cook a while longer it may have been something memorable, but by taking it out too soon its making everyone sick. Same can be said of Homer Bailey and to a lesser extent Jay Bruce. Many are calling for the team to make the same mistake with Aroldis Chapman. I think when Stubbs is in his late 20's he'll be a pretty good major league CF, but if he did find some power stroke about when he hit the majors last year, he really could have used a season in AAA to develop consistency with it and to avoid the pitfals of falling into a long swing.

Guy had a .713 OPS at AAA for a reason. Another year was called for so I'm not surprised, but it didn't play out that way. On the heels of his big league debut he had a good spring, he knocked down the door and I think he should get another month at this point.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by Benihana

As I've said a dozen times, when he doesn't punish pitchers with power, they are going to come at him (as they have done.) The plate discipline he showed in the minors really doesn't mean much if he doesn't have the power to scare major league pitchers away.

Despite not showing any power this season (.257 SLG, 0.81 IsoP) and pitchers coming at him, Stubbs still has an excellent .111 IsoD (Votto, for example, has an IsoD of .122 in '10), so clearly the walks haven't dried up. It's not really a matter of his plate discipline not working at ML level, but rather it's a contact issue he's struggling with. Like RMR said, it's an absolute necessity for him to make more contact in order to be productive and ultimately, sustain a ML career.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by mth123

Drew Stubbs is like the Thanksgiving meal that was removed from the oven before it was finished cooking. If it was left to cook a while longer it may have been something memorable, but by taking it out too soon its making everyone sick. Same can be said of Homer Bailey and to a lesser extent Jay Bruce. Many are calling for the team to make the same mistake with Aroldis Chapman. I think when Stubbs is in his late 20's he'll be a pretty good major league CF, but if he did find some power stroke about when he hit the majors last year, he really could have used a season in AAA to develop consistency with it and to avoid the pitfals of falling into a long swing.

Guy had a .713 OPS at AAA for a reason. Another year was called for so I'm not surprised, but it didn't play out that way. On the heels of his big league debut he had a good spring, he knocked down the door and I think he should get another month at this point.

That’s a good way to put it.

Wasn’t Stubbs kind of moved around and up in the minors in odd manner too? I have it in my head that he was not given the time at any level that he might have needed. Am I wrong about that?

I think that I learned my lesson from the time of wanting Bailey and Bruce pushed up here. I am very willing to wait on Chapman to make sure that he gets the right amount of seasoning and experience for him before exposing him to the dog eat dog world of major league baseball.

I would give Stubbs the entire year in center field for this Reds team. With a reasonable amount of days off here and there. I would not quit on him, and I would tell him so, even if he does struggle. But, he would not be leading off, because the Reds are OBP challenged, and even more so against right handed pitching, or at least they were coming into the season. The Reds could live with an outstanding centerfielder supporting the pitching staff on defense, while he gets better with the bat down in the order. It has been done before with teams. Of course I think that they could live with a Cabrera/Janish platoon too, which seems to go against the grain of the consensus choice.

Doesn’t Stubbs have more to think about when leading off? Maybe too much to think about. Vs down in the order where making good contact on better pitch recognition might be his priority?

If it wasn’t for speed, or the tradition of leading CF off, wouldn’t Stubbs normally be batting down in the order in his first full year of PA/AB unless he was an exceptional phenom type?

2008 23 3 Teams 3 Lgs A+-AA-AAA
548 PA .788
2008 23 Sarasota FLOR A+
358 PA .772
2008 23 Chattanooga SOUL AA
106 PA .802
2008 23 Louisville IL AAA
84 PA .834

2009 24 Louisville IL AAA
472 PA .713

[Benihana]

While I know every player is unique in the time they need to develop, 1800 minor league plate appearances is hardly rushing a guy who was a Top 10 pick out of a big time college program.

I'm not sure that rushing Drew Stubbs was the problem. I think the fact that is power never really developed at any level (including the combined 800 ABs he had in A ball as a 22 and 23 year old, and 3 HRs in over 450 plate appearances in AAA as a 24 year old) is a much bigger concern. With that kind of power -or lack thereof- you better be a damn good contact hitter if you are going to stick in a major league lineup, and we all know what kind of contact hitter he has been.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by Screwball

Despite not showing any power this season (.257 SLG, 0.81 IsoP) and pitchers coming at him, Stubbs still has an excellent .111 IsoD (Votto, for example, has an IsoD of .122 in '10), so clearly the walks haven't dried up. It's not really a matter of his plate discipline not working at ML level, but rather it's a contact issue he's struggling with. Like RMR said, it's an absolute necessity for him to make more contact in order to be productive and ultimately, sustain a ML career.

I wouldn't be adverse to Stubbs attempting to bunt a little more frequently. Anything to get him on base, because his out-machine routine isn't doing the offense any favors.

Unfortunately, unless Stubbs can get his BA up to around .250-.260, the team will probably have to go out and address the CF problem in FA this offseasn.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Benihana

While I know every player is unique in the time they need to develop, 1800 minor league plate appearances is hardly rushing a guy who was a Top 10 pick out of a big time college program.

I'm not sure that rushing Drew Stubbs was the problem. I think the fact that is power never really developed at any level (including the combined 800 ABs he had in A ball as a 22 and 23 year old, and 3 HRs in over 450 plate appearances in AAA as a 24 year old) is a much bigger concern. With that kind of power -or lack thereof- you better be a damn good contact hitter if you are going to stick in a major league lineup, and we all know what kind of contact hitter he has been.

Promoting a player to the majors after a .713 OPS in AAA is rushing - especially when he is still working on his swing. I don't care how many PAs he got in Billings and Dayton to prop up his stats (he was a big time college guy after all). If I understand it, Stubbs was in the process of changing his swing when recalled and showed power with the revamped swing in the big leagues. Even with the newfound pop, his OPS was below .800 in his major league '09 season. He needed to use that swing (if that is the one he sticks with) in AAA over a period of time to see if its going to work for him and if he can be consistent with it. The contact issues that RMR rightly points to, may be even worse with the new swing and we're just now getting enough data to really see it.

IMO, Stubbs should have taken the Dickerson path where he repeated AAA until he got it right, but we're past that now and the team should stick with this path for a while longer to see what happens. Its possible that what we saw in 2009 was simply a hot streak which many of us have pointed out, but its also possible that what we're seeing now is just a slump. Given the alternatives, I'd stick with him for a while and find out once and for all.

[Falls City Beer]

Stubbs is pretty darn old, as well. We could very well be seeing what he already is.

Though I'm sure he'll weave his magic against AAAA pitching in September, when there's nothing at all to lose and 70% of the teams have no shot at the postseason.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mth123

Promoting a player to the majors after a .713 OPS in AAA is rushing - especially when he is still working on his swing. I don't care how many PAs he got in Billings and Dayton to prop up his stats (he was a big time college guy after all). If I understand it, Stubbs was in the process of changing his swing when recalled and showed power with the revamped swing in the big leagues. Even with the newfound pop, his OPS was below .800 in his major league '09 season. He needed to use that swing (if that is the one he sticks with) in AAA over a period of time to see if its going to work for him and if he can be consistent with it. The contact issues that RMR rightly points to, may be even worse with the new swing and we're just now getting enough data to really see it.

IMO, Stubbs should have taken the Dickerson path where he repeated AAA until he got it right, but we're past that now and the team should stick with this path for a while longer to see what happens. Its possible that what we saw in 2009 was simply a hot streak which many of us have pointed out, but its also possible that what we're seeing now is just a slump. Given the alternatives, I'd stick with him for a while and find out once and for all.

You are ignoring the issue of why he had to change his swing in the first place- it wasn't working. What if a 32 year old career minor leaguer wanted to change his swing because his previous swing hadn't been working for the past 10 years? Should we give him an extra year to change and perfect it before calling him up? Even if he had already had thousands of minor league plate appearances, and there was a need on the big club?

I just don't buy it with Stubbs. He had a .713 OPS in >450 PAs in AAA, but that was after underwhelming and unsustained performances at other levels. The guy turns 26 years old this year, and he wasn't brought up incredibly prematurely like Homer Bailey. Plus, conventional wisdom says to challenge hitters while coddling pitchers. Bailey was a pitcher coming out of high school. Stubbs is a bat coming from a Top 10 college program. Big difference.

Jay Bruce, who you say was "barely rushed" was in the majors by age 21. Drew Stubbs wasn't even drafted yet at age 21, and didn't sniff the bigs until just before his 24th birthday. You will be hard pressed to find anyone in the league who says that is rushing a prospect, especially for a Top 10 pick out of UT.

[edabbs44]

Rushing guys is usually just an excuse. Rushing a guy who played at a big time college program and spent multiple years in the minors is, at best, a reach. The knock on Stubbs coming out of college was that he might not hit in the majors. That's why the selection was questionable at the time.

[membengal]

I can't be the only one who has been within an inch of starting a new thread entitled

Drew Stubbs: Aunt

can I?

[klw]

I think we have our Drew Stubbs nickname. If Jay Bruce is the Boss, Drew Stubbs is


"Uncle"

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by mth123

Promoting a player to the majors after a .713 OPS in AAA is rushing - especially when he is still working on his swing. I don't care how many PAs he got in Billings and Dayton to prop up his stats (he was a big time college guy after all). If I understand it, Stubbs was in the process of changing his swing when recalled and showed power with the revamped swing in the big leagues. Even with the newfound pop, his OPS was below .800 in his major league '09 season. He needed to use that swing (if that is the one he sticks with) in AAA over a period of time to see if its going to work for him and if he can be consistent with it. The contact issues that RMR rightly points to, may be even worse with the new swing and we're just now getting enough data to really see it.

IMO, Stubbs should have taken the Dickerson path where he repeated AAA until he got it right, but we're past that now and the team should stick with this path for a while longer to see what happens. Its possible that what we saw in 2009 was simply a hot streak which many of us have pointed out, but its also possible that what we're seeing now is just a slump. Given the alternatives, I'd stick with him for a while and find out once and for all.

But what if he never DID get it right? There's no guarantee that more time in the minors would have resulted in better performance. I don't think the Reds have mishandled Drew Stubbs. I just think he is what he is, which is a below average baseball player. The speed and the power are a tease, because while it's there, I don't think he's ever going to be able to put it consistently together as a major league player.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by cincrazy

But what if he never DID get it right? There's no guarantee that more time in the minors would have resulted in better performance. I don't think the Reds have mishandled Drew Stubbs. I just think he is what he is, which is a below average baseball player. The speed and the power are a tease, because while it's there, I don't think he's ever going to be able to put it consistently together as a major league player.

So what's the harm in leaving him in the minors then? Leave him down and if he never gets it he fades away. I'm sleptical of guys who OPS so little in AAA ever being much in the majors, but the Reds seem to think there is a reason to give him a job, and if that is the case, I don't think April is enough time to change that. Give him another month. If he hits he stays. If not, back to AAA. Its not that hard.

As I've said since last year when most were penciling Stubbs in as a strenghth that he needs to hit. In Spring he did and earned a look. I just don't think its time to change yet (even though I'm skeptical of Stubbs OPSing more than .675 or so). But the Reds want him to take charge, so they need to give him enough rope to see if these are just streaks or slumps and who the real guy is. I'm guessing its the .715 AAA OPS guy, but lets keep running him out there for now. There aren't any alternatives.

[fearofpopvol1]

Dude hit a bomb his first plate appearence. 436 feet tonight. He's having a good night tonight at the plate.