Drew Stubbs: Why Doesn't He Make Enough Contact?

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by reds44

So why were you so high on him?

Yeah, Doug?

Inquiring minds want to know.

I'm guessing the skill set was to alluring to pass up?

Kind of like the really pretty girl you date in High School. She's cool, funny, and smart. However, that ill placed mole is an eyesore, and you just can't stop staring at it.

[TRF]

In doug's defense, he didn't want the Reds to pick him. But he tends to support most of the team's decisions, especially regarding #1 picks. He was/is a staunch supporter of Devin Mesoraco, when NOBODY was supporting him. And that is looking like a good call.

My problem with Stubbs the player is he was never developed properly. He was rushed through the system with no plan for what type of hitter he should be based on his skillset. All anyone saw was the blazing speed and someone said leadoff hitter. He could be a very good middle of the order hitter, a 25 HR guy that happens to have speed and can steal a base. You know like Brandon Phillips thinks he is.

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by TRF

In doug's defense, he didn't want the Reds to pick him. But he tends to support most of the team's decisions, especially regarding #1 picks. He was/is a staunch supporter of Devin Mesoraco, when NOBODY was supporting him. And that is looking like a good call.

My problem with Stubbs the player is he was never developed properly. He was rushed through the system with no plan for what type of hitter he should be based on his skillset. All anyone saw was the blazing speed and someone said leadoff hitter. He could be a very good middle of the order hitter, a 25 HR guy that happens to have speed and can steal a base. You know like Brandon Phillips thinks he is.

Recently, he's looked better.

However, can you really judge a number 1 draft pick until he actually gets to the bigs?

While Meso may end up being a quality ML catcher, there are a ton of catchers that come from the depths of the draft to be average at their position. Logic seems to favor quality pitching in the draft: early and often.

And, in no way, am I bashing Doug. Stubbs was a scout's dream. Like you said though, his development is nearly non-existent. He's been essentially the same player.... he's just facing better pitching now.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by forfreelin04

Recently, he's looked better.

However, can you really judge a number 1 draft pick until he actually gets to the bigs?

While Meso may end up being a quality ML catcher, there are a ton of catchers that come from the depths of the draft to be average at their position. Logic seems to favor quality pitching in the draft: early and often.

And, in no way, am I bashing Doug. Stubbs was a scout's dream. Like you said though, his development is nearly non-existent. He's been essentially the same player.... he's just facing better pitching now.

My how the RZ aura can change on a player and I mean quickly. Just a month ago after Stubbs hit that grand slam there were folks touting him as a potential All Star.

I think his true landing point will be somewhere between the two. Until Dickerson got hurt I was for sending Stubbs to AAA to work on things and gain some confidence. For now I'd like to see Heisey get a few starts. We don't have wonderful CF options so as a small market club we're left with the hope that a guy like Stubbs will improve. A club like ours can't go out and buy 8 sure bets when setting up its starting lineup.

I do agree with Doug when he said that Stubbs is not one of the club's biggest problems

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

My how the RZ aura can change on a player and I mean quickly. Just a month ago after Stubbs hit that grand slam there were folks touting him as a potential All Star.

I think his true landing point will be somewhere between the two. Until Dickerson got hurt I was for sending Stubbs to AAA to work on things and gain some confidence. For now I'd like to see Heisey get a few starts. We don't have wonderful CF options so as a small market club we're left with the hope that a guy like Stubbs will improve. A club like ours can't go out and buy 8 sure bets when setting up its starting lineup.

I do agree with Doug when he said that Stubbs is not one of the club's biggest problems

Their leadoff hitter (getting probably 5 at bats per game) not getting on base is A BIG PROBLEM. It's been a BIG problem for several years now.

The starting pitching is starting to throw much better. The bullpen has been spotty at times, but overall hasn't been an eyesore. (Minus some bouts with control) Stubbs has been consistently poor with the stick for over a month now.

I don't want to bench him or send him AAA. I just want him moved down to seventh or preferably 8th in the order.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

My how the RZ aura can change on a player and I mean quickly. Just a month ago after Stubbs hit that grand slam there were folks touting him as a potential All Star.

I think his true landing point will be somewhere between the two. Until Dickerson got hurt I was for sending Stubbs to AAA to work on things and gain some confidence. For now I'd like to see Heisey get a few starts. We don't have wonderful CF options so as a small market club we're left with the hope that a guy like Stubbs will improve. A club like ours can't go out and buy 8 sure bets when setting up its starting lineup.

I do agree with Doug when he said that Stubbs is not one of the club's biggest problems

Some have wavered back and forth, it's the nature of being a fan. Some have held fast too. On both sides.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by forfreelin04

Their leadoff hitter (getting probably 5 at bats per game) not getting on base is A BIG PROBLEM. It's been a BIG problem for several years now.

The starting pitching is starting to throw much better. The bullpen has been spotty at times, but overall hasn't been an eyesore. (Minus some bouts with control) Stubbs has been consistently poor with the stick for over a month now.

I don't want to bench him or send him AAA. I just want him moved down to seventh or preferably 8th in the order.

Which means Stubbs isn't really the problem. Dusty's lineups are.

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by BRM

Which means Stubbs isn't really the problem. Dusty's lineups are.

True, but a hitter with a .267 OBP really doesn't have a place on a Major League starting lineup.

That being said, I think he gets healthy in the 8th hole. Sees more fastballs, gets one at bat less per game.

[bucksfan2]

I think Stubbs is off and guessing at pitches. He is struggling right now and thats about it. He may never be a great hitter but he also isn't a sub .200 hitter.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by forfreelin04

True, but a hitter with a .267 OBP really doesn't have a place on a Major League starting lineup.

That being said, I think he gets healthy in the 8th hole. Sees more fastballs, gets one at bat less per game.

I agree with both statements. The .267 has to improve or he needs to get sent down. Move him down, give him time to improve. It's not like there's any better options at this point.

[VR]

Originally Posted by dabvu2498

He's listed at 6'4", 205 lbs.

Not exactly David Eckstein.

Got me. But to me it's akin to Prince Fielder trying to adapt his game to get more infield hits and bunt singles.

Body aside....he's the fastest guy from home to first that I've witnessed in a Reds uniform. That does no good when you're striking out or hitting fly balls at an alarming rate.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by reds44

So why were you so high on him?

Because as poor as he has shown, he isn't this bad. I figured he would probably be a .250/.340/.400 type hitter now and could develop into a .260/.350/.450 hitter in the future with plus defense. If Drew Stubbs could be a .350/.450 guy, and I still think that there is a chance of that, the guy is an elite center fielder. If the guy turns out to be a .700 OPS guy, he is still a quality major leaguer who is overall around league average.

It isn't that was I 'so high on him', its that I was higher than most others on this board on him.

Right now Stubbs has a BABIP below .250. For a player with his wheels, there is simply no reason to expect that to continue. Yeah, he strikes out a lot, but he is walking at a good rate as well and I expect the power to show back up soon enough too.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Right now Stubbs has a BABIP below .250. For a player with his wheels, there is simply no reason to expect that to continue. Yeah, he strikes out a lot, but he is walking at a good rate as well and I expect the power to show back up soon enough too.

The power has to show up in the first place. His approach is all wrong at the plate. And he's ill suited to leadoff.

The Reds have got to stop seeing him as a speedster first. He should be a power guy, even if that doesn't mean HR power, but gap power. Janis in about a quarter of the AB's Stubbs has, has 1 more double. That's ridiculous, and shows that he isn't close to using the natural power he has. His approach needs to be that of a middle of the order hitter. He needs to be more aggressive. The BB's will still come when pitchers see he can hurt them.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

The power has to show up in the first place. His approach is all wrong at the plate. And he's ill suited to leadoff.

The Reds have got to stop seeing him as a speedster first. He should be a power guy, even if that doesn't mean HR power, but gap power. Janis in about a quarter of the AB's Stubbs has, has 1 more double. That's ridiculous, and shows that he isn't close to using the natural power he has. His approach needs to be that of a middle of the order hitter. He needs to be more aggressive. The BB's will still come when pitchers see he can hurt them.

I think the power has showed up in the past. Dude hit 8 HR's last year in 150 at bats. I do agree that he needs to be out of the leadoff spot. I have never wanted him there.

[Spring~Fields]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Because as poor as he has shown, he isn't this bad.

Right now Stubbs has a BABIP below .250. For a player with his wheels, there is simply no reason to expect that to continue. Yeah, he strikes out a lot, but he is walking at a good rate as well and I expect the power to show back up soon enough too.

BABIP
Cairo .143
Nix .217
Gomes .226
Stubbs .230
Rolen .239
Cabrera .253
Phillips .270
Bruce .275
Janish .294
Hernandez .302
Votto .362
Hanigan .412

I don’t know, but I get the impression that when there are various players in the .700 ops area that lower BABIP might be a norm for them.

A lot of bad luck on this team.