Can The Reds Win With Bailey and Cueto?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I just don't get this. Look at their last 3 outings from the thread Brutus posted. Johnny had one great outing in there while Homer had one bad outing in there. Otherwise, they were nearly identical. A handful of poor outing in the beginning of the season from a young kid is NOT enough to earn the kind of lambasting he's gotten in this thread. Everyone is so quick to dismiss Homer's second half last year due to a couple poor outings. Fickle crowd.

(this wasn't at you specifically reds44...just in general about the quick triggers around here)

Last three outings? How about the last three years:

Bailey: 227 IP, 5.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, not better numbers every year
Cueto: 387 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, better numbers every year

2010 Bailey (24 years old): 7.24 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, .311 BAA
2010 Cueto (24 years old): 4.07 ERA 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, .248 BAA

Yeah, I'd say they look nearly identical

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Last three outings? How about the last three years:

Bailey: 227 IP, 5.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, not better numbers every year
Cueto: 387 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, better numbers every year

2010 Bailey (24 years old): 7.24 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, .311 BAA
2010 Cueto (24 years old): 4.07 ERA 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, .248 BAA

Yeah, I'd say they look nearly identical

[membengal]

Re: the thread title.

Apparently, yes.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Originally Posted by membengal

Re: the thread title.

Apparently, yes.

Especially against the Pirates!

[LoganBuck]

Gotta love stats this time of year. Bailey shaves his ERA to 5.66 and Whip to 1.55, in one game.

[11larkin11]

FCB?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Gotta love stats this time of year. Bailey shaves his ERA to 5.66 and Whip to 1.55, in one game.

True, but there is still a pretty wide gap between those two's stat lines.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

FCB?

Hats off to him. Now I hope we can dispense with the excuses about his pitch counts.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Last three outings? How about the last three years:

Bailey: 227 IP, 5.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, not better numbers every year
Cueto: 387 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, better numbers every year

2010 Bailey (24 years old): 7.24 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, .311 BAA
2010 Cueto (24 years old): 4.07 ERA 1.21 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, .248 BAA

Yeah, I'd say they look nearly identical

Did I say Homer was better than Cueto the past 3 years? No. Roll your eyes all you want, but I'm referring to RIGHT NOW. They'll both have bad games once in a while, but I think they have very similar ceilings and stuff right now. If Cueto was bounced up and down on the Cincy-Louisville shuttle his minor league & mlb numbers might look eerily similar to Homer's. It just seems like many here are much too quick to call Homer a bust or to ship him out. His age gets overlooked much too easily imo.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

That's why you don't conflate Bailey and Cueto.

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Eh. I fully expect Bailey to perform CPR on the Pirates' offense tomorrow.

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

As I fully expect you to be wrong.

11larkin11 stand up and take a bow!

[reds44]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Did I say Homer was better than Cueto the past 3 years? No. Roll your eyes all you want, but I'm referring to RIGHT NOW. They'll both have bad games once in a while, but I think they have very similar ceilings and stuff right now. If Cueto was bounced up and down on the Cincy-Louisville shuttle his minor league & mlb numbers might look eerily similar to Homer's. It just seems like many here are much too quick to call Homer a bust or to ship him out. His age gets overlooked much too easily imo.

He didn't get shuttled because he showed he could be a productive big league pitcher on a consistent basis, Homer hasn't.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Good and bad. It's what you get, a lot of times, with young pitchers. I'm surprised that more people can't understand it before they are ready to jump off the ledge.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by reds44

He didn't get shuttled because he showed he could be a productive big league pitcher on a consistent basis, Homer hasn't.

My point was that Homer was rushed to the bigs WELL before he was even close to ready. He got killed as you would expect. His confidence plummets...and then they send him back down. Then he starts to pull it together in the minors again...and they rush him back up only to get creamed because he's again not ready yet. And they reward him by pushing him back down and further lowering his confidence. Rinse and repeat. Add in the spring training where he dominated and was rewarded by being shipped down again. If this sort of thing was done to Cueto...he wouldn't have had the success he's had at the bigs. He was developed properly and has slowly settled in at the majors. Everyone...no, scratch that (I get in trouble when I say everyone even though I 'mean' lots of people)....SOME people tend to only look at the results and forget the process. With a young pitcher coming out of high school with the kind of hype Homer had...the process matters a great deal.

It's taken Homer longer to reach a balance point of sorts, but right now I say he's pretty comparable to Cueto currently. Hopefully that's clearer.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

My point was that Homer was rushed to the bigs WELL before he was even close to ready. He got killed as you would expect. His confidence plummets...and then they send him back down. Then he starts to pull it together in the minors again...and they rush him back up only to get creamed because he's again not ready yet. And they reward him by pushing him back down and further lowering his confidence. Rinse and repeat. Add in the spring training where he dominated and was rewarded by being shipped down again. If this sort of thing was done to Cueto...he wouldn't have had the success he's had at the bigs. He was developed properly and has slowly settled in at the majors. Everyone...no, scratch that (I get in trouble when I say everyone even though I 'mean' lots of people)....SOME people tend to only look at the results and forget the process. With a young pitcher coming out of high school with the kind of hype Homer had...the process matters a great deal.

It's taken Homer longer to reach a balance point of sorts, but right now I say he's pretty comparable to Cueto currently. Hopefully that's clearer.

Wow, if this isn't a pot full of excuses. If Bailey was pretty comparable to Cueto currently, then why are their 2010 numbers so different? And they're not just kind of different. They are very different, even after today's performance (which I congratulate him on.)

I hope Bailey pitches the way he did today for the rest of the year, and many years after that. I also hope that Devin Mesoraco continues to OPS over 1.000, and Drew Stubbs continues to hit like he did today, and blah blah blah. Sadly, reality and past performance tells us that some (if not all) of this won't happen.

Enough with the negativity. My point is that I'll still take Cueto over Bailey, every day of the week.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Wow, if this isn't a pot full of excuses. If Bailey was pretty comparable to Cueto currently, then why are their 2010 numbers so different? And they're not just kind of different. They are very different, even after today's performance (which I congratulate him on.)

You're reading too much into it. The original topic was about the last 3 or 4 starts. I was pointing out the fact that Cueto had one monster game and Bailey had one stinker of a game in those 3 (4 for cueto at the time...before today's game). Take out those 2 starts and their numbers are very similar. I wasn't talking about all year, or their whole careers...but these past 3 starts (now 4).

As for a pot full of excuses...I'm not making excuses...just pointing out facts in regards to how the Reds mishandled Bailey. Is anybody here going to dispute that they bungled his development in a BIG way?

As for them being comparable and similar...
Both are quite young
Both are fireballers
Both are terribly inconsistent
Both are considered to have TOR type of stuff
Both have problems with long balls
Both have problems with pitch counts and going deep into games
Both have problems with getting rattled after a big inning
Both have problems with focus
Both have had stretches where they simply dominated
Both have had stretches where the fans wanted to dump them in the Ohio River

I'd say they're pretty comparable. The numbers will fluctuate, but the similarities abound IMO.