Cliff Lee

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

You gotta get 6 wins at some juncture--if not at this deadline (and honestly, how many teams in recent memory have added 6 wins worth of players at the deadline?), then you start all over again in the offseason, when you're trying to match dollars, not just prospects. The Reds lose two average starters this offseason--they're going to chase their own tails just to replace those innings.

How many teams have added 6 wins of production at the deadline, none. it's cost prohibitive and very risky given the amount of future production you'd have to give up to get it. Most .500 talent teams aren't stupid enough to try and go all-in.

The Reds have options on both Harang and Arroyo. Arroyo's is at the same $$ we're paying him this year. Haragn's salary goes up by all of $250k. You only lose them if you want to lose them. And even if you do choose to let them go, you have $20M to "chase your tail" trying to replace them. You also have a number of guys in AAA who are much better than the options we've had in years past -- legitimate prospects.

It seems that you're simply unable or unwilling to distinguish our current circumstance from the situations we've been in over the last 10 years.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Bailey's going to implode; Arroyo's at best a league average starter; Harang is the same; Cueto's good, maybe really good; Leake looks good, but he's a rookie.

This team probably a .500 team. Unless they remove a bad starter and replace him with a great one. And get another offensive player.

I've been as hard on Bailey as anyone, but I don't think he'll be significantly worse that his current 5.66 ERA- in fact, I think he will be at least slightly better, so I don't know how he'll "implode."

Arroyo has a 4.76 ERA which is half a run worse than his career average and a full run worse than his 2009 numbers. Harang's ERA is almost two full runs worse than both his career and last year's numbers (even if you try to make the argument that he is on a downward trend.)

Like you said, Cueto and Leake are both good if not very good, so again, what makes you think what the Reds are currently doing isn't legit?

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by mth123

Volquez will be back. Chapman will be ready. Get Lee in the offseason using those dollars. Deal Alonso for Lee. Heck throw in Wood, but subtracting solid production from the major league roster mean's you'll come up short, you won't have bruce and then you won't have Lee.

Chapman will be ready when he can throw strikes. Volquez might come back from surgery; he might not.

Look, don't confuse what I'm saying: of course, I'd trade Alonso for Lee sooner than I would Bruce. But I would go as far as Bruce.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

It seems that you're simply unable or unwilling to distinguish our current circumstance from the situations we've been in over the last 10 years.

They'll have talent when they produce.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I've been as hard on Bailey as anyone, but I don't think he'll be significantly worse that his current 5.66 ERA- in fact, I think he will be at least slightly better, so I don't know how he'll "implode."

Bailey's done nothing but implode; you're defending a 5.66 ERA. Stockholm syndrome.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Bailey's done nothing but implode; you're defending a 5.66 ERA. Stockholm syndrome.

Again, I'm not in the business of defending Bailey or a 5.66 ERA. But to "implode" means that you will deteriorate significantly from the status quo. And I don't think Bailey will be much worse than a 5.66 ERA. Therefore, I am not expecting an "implosion" of Bailey or the ballclub that is currently in 1st place.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

They'll have talent when they produce.

Have they not produced a 1st place team?

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Have they not produced a 1st place team?

They've produced a pythag .500 team.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Chapman will be ready when he can throw strikes. Volquez might come back from surgery; he might not.

Look, don't confuse what I'm saying: of course, I'd trade Alonso for Lee sooner than I would Bruce. But I would go as far as Bruce.

Getting Lee w/o Bruce means you still won't win in 2010. Then you start the offseason without Lee and without Bruce. Don't see how that is a positive.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by mth123

Getting Lee w/o Bruce means you still won't win in 2010. Then you start the offseason without Lee and without Bruce. Don't see how that is a positive.

Get Lee and a bat at the deadline (or weeks before), then you're cookin'.

Eh, it's moot, it won't happen. They'll peter out and I'll enjoy my summer hobbies.

[MWM]

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I guess I just don't see how the current circumstances are so much different than the last 10 years. The strengths and deficiencies might be different, but they're still nothing more than a fringe contender, IMO. And before I get shouts back of how they're in first place, they've been in first place before and very close much later in the season more than once over that stretch. Let's not forget that in several of those years there was a belief that they were a contender and just a player or two away at the least. I do agree that they're better off than those other years, but i don't think the degree to which they're better off is all that significant. The difference is right now is right now and we know the result from the past seasons.

I don't think getting Lee is enough to make them legit WS contenders, but if it did, I wouldn't care what the price would be I'd do it. When you've been as long away from a legit contender as the Reds you don't worry about next year or the year after if you're in a position to win it all. At least's that's my philosophy. If you told me right now that the Reds would make the world series this year, and lose even, but they'd be dreadful for the next 3, I wouldn't blink an eye.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by MWM

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I guess I just don't see how the current circumstances are so much different than the last 10. The strengths and deficiencies might be different, but they're still nothing more than a fringe contender, IMO. And before I get shouts back of how they're in first place, they've been in first place before and very close much later in the season more than once over that stretch. Let's not forget that in several of those years there was a belief that they were a contender and just a player or two away at the least. I do agree that they're better off than those other years, but i don't think the degree to which they're better off is all that significant. The difference is right now is right now and we know the result from the past seasons.

I don't think getting Lee is enough to make them legit WS contenders, but if it did, I wouldn't care what the price would be I'd do it. When you've been as long away from a legit contender as the Reds you don't worry about next year or the year after if you're in a position to win it all. At least's that's my philosophy. If you told me right now that the Reds would make the world series this year, and lose even, but they'd be dreadful for the next 3, I wouldn't blink an eye.

Right.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Eh, it's moot, it won't happen. They'll peter out and I'll enjoy my summer hobbies.

Sounds like wishful thinking.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Sounds like wishful thinking.

I'd love to be wrong, but I want a winner. A real contender.

I've seen two weeks of strong play like this before.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I'd love to be wrong, but I want a winner. A real contender.

I've seen two weeks of strong play like this before.

Only one way to have a real contender. Build the rotation and keep your best position players. Period. Giving away an Alonso, or, God in Heaven, a Bruce for the marginal improvement you'll get with Lee over Volquez seems to me a formula for continued mediocrity.