Cliff Lee

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Only one way to have a real contender. Build the rotation and keep your best position players. Period. Giving away an Alonso, or, God in Heaven, a Bruce for the marginal improvement you'll get with Lee over Volquez seems to me a formula for continued mediocrity.

I hope a roid-less Volquez still has it.

[Eric_the_Red]

I don't see how the outcome of past Reds seasons, with different players and current players in different stages of development, has anything to do with this season. It's a different year, so the results may be different as well.

How many "real contenders" are there? Yanks, Rays, Phillies. That's my list. That doesn't mean that one of those three teams is going to win it all. That, as they say, is why they play the game.

Seems to me, the people that are doom and gloom are right most of the time, but you could say that about almost any team. More teams fail than succeed if the goal is the World Series. Ask the 1991 Braves and Twins about how past failures predict future failure. The 2004 Red Sox. The 2008 Rays.

Can't we just enjoy this team??

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

They've produced a pythag .500 team.

Sure, but pythag isn't always right, especially in the middle of May. The Reds pythag is off because of a few poor games in April. Pay little attention to it at this point. Simply because they were lucky to finish April where they did, doesn't mean that they are lucky to have the record in May that they do have, or moving forward that it will catch up to them as long as they keep playing like they have been for the last 4 weeks.

[MWM]

Maybe I just think Cliff Lee is a lot better than others do. That's possible. I've seen how he's pitched down the stretch in pennant races and how he's pitched in the actual playoffs. I think he's a HUGE upgrade over Volquez, especially coming off surgery.

In reality, if you don't have a guy like Lee, getting to the playoffs is pointless. My willingness to pay a steep price for that guy if it meant they were legit WS contenders is because he's one of only a small handful of pitchers who can actually get a team to the WS. That's rare and something worth paying for.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Eric_the_Red

I don't see how the outcome of past Reds seasons, with different players and current players in different stages of development, has anything to do with this season. It's a different year, so the results may be different as well.

How many "real contenders" are there? Yanks, Rays, Phillies. That's my list. That doesn't mean that one of those three teams is going to win it all. That, as they say, is why they play the game.

Seems to me, the people that are doom and gloom are right most of the time, but you could say that about almost any team. More teams fail than succeed if the goal is the World Series. Ask the 1991 Braves and Twins about how past failures predict future failure. The 2004 Red Sox. The 2008 Rays.

Can't we just enjoy this team??

I have no doubt they'll play out the string this season, come what may. You've got three starters who are almost certainly going to be somewhere between slightly below league average to a lot below league average. A guy who probably shouldn't throw more than 160 MLB innings, no matter how effortlessly he works. And a guy who's 5' 10" and expected to anchor the staff. I know how this story's going to end.

[Degenerate39]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Get Lee and a bat at the deadline (or weeks before), then you're cookin'.

Eh, it's moot, it won't happen. They'll peter out and I'll enjoy my summer hobbies.

You mean this isn't one of your hobbies?

[MWM]

Originally Posted by Eric_the_Red

Can't we just enjoy this team??

I will, and I am. I always do. But I've also heard that line before when the Reds have faked it for a stretch of time and some of us pointed out the obvious flaws. I pretty much always enjoy the team, but I am a tough guy to convince that the team has what it takes to sustain success over 6 months. Like others have said, when it's been 15 years, I'll most likely need to see it first.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I'd love to be wrong, but I want a winner. A real contender.

I've seen two weeks of strong play like this before.

We all want a contender. The question is how you get there. Adding 2 wins to a .500 team isn't contending. And when doing so subtracts production from your team in the future, you're just making it that much harder to contend down the road.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Only one way to have a real contender. Build the rotation and keep your best position players. Period. Giving away an Alonso, or, God in Heaven, a Bruce for the marginal improvement you'll get with Lee over Volquez seems to me a formula for continued mediocrity.

Not to side with FCB here, but believing Cliff Lee to be a marginal upgrade over a post-surgery, post-PED suspension Edinson Volquez is a formula for continued insanity.

People need to get over Yonder Alonso. The guy doesn't have a position to play in Cincinnati. The only thing he is good for is to acquire another player. The sooner people start understanding and embracing that idea the better.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

We all want a contender. The question is how you get there. Adding 2 wins to a .500 team isn't contending. And when doing so subtracts production from your team in the future, you're just making it that much harder to contend down the road.

A lot of things make contention down the road very, very difficult for a team with a $70 million payroll. There's nothing linear about sustained contention for a small market club. And while I'd love to be the Rays, that philosophy's not going to become the Reds' any time soon.

[MWM]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Adding 2 wins to a .500 team isn't contending.

I agree wholeheartedly with this. But you're admitting this is a .500 team which is also something i agree with. I was merely opining on the hypothetical of the Reds being closer than they are where a guy like Lee could put them over the edge. Lee is a guy you get if you're pretty sure you're going to get to the playoffs. His value in the playoffs is tough to underestimate. But he's not a guy you get when you're a borderline contender hoping he'll just get you in.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by MWM

Maybe I just think Cliff Lee is a lot better than others do. That's possible. I've seen how he's pitched down the stretch in pennant races and how he's pitched in the actual playoffs. I think he's a HUGE upgrade over Volquez, especially coming off surgery.

In reality, if you don't have a guy like Lee, getting to the playoffs is pointless. My willingness to pay a steep price for that guy if it meant they were legit WS contenders is because he's one of only a small handful of pitchers who can actually get a team to the WS. That's rare and something worth paying for.

I get it, but w/o Bruce they still aren't legit contenders. Votto, Bruce, Rolen and those are your good position players. Others are serviceable stop gaps, but only these three are good players IMO. Take one away and it won't matter if you have 5 Cy Young winners in the rotation.

If I thought Dealing Bruce for Lee would guarantee 2010, I'd be for it, but w/o Bruce, getting Lee won't matter.

[Will M]

i doubt anyone believes the team as is will be a serious world series contender. i think where the problem lies is that people differ on how to improve the team. for me one of the issues is that the team on the field doesn't have giant gaping holes. it does have a lot of question marks as to will the good players (say Gomes) keep it up? will the bad but talented players (Say Stubbs) improve? will the erratic players (Homer, Harang) show us their true colors? so if I was Walt i certainly wouldn't be going 'all in' on Cliff Lee & find out that its really some other position that needs help. also it may take a little more time to see if certain guys like Alonso or Chapman can help us this year. i just believe its too soon for the mega deal.

one thing i think Walt CAN do now is to weed out the dregs on the 25 man roster (sorry Cairo, Nix & Fisher) and replace them with better players. one potential problem i see with the team is the poor depth on the 25 man roster. this kind of approach could be cheap & would not prevent a big blockbuster deal later if it came together. so what might the team need? bench IF who can play 2B/3B & hit a little, left handed OF bat better than Nix & maybe another late inning reliever. i'd search through the rosters of the really bad teams looking for targets. who could be offer to get these guys? well it shouldn't take Alonso or Travis Wood. guys like Maloney, LeCure, Heisey or Valaika are the guys I am thinking of.

[HokieRed]

I think the team is on the brink of being a serious, multi-year contender, primarily because the pitching is improved vastly over what it's been at any time in the last ten years. It still isn't quite where it needs to be, but there is more depth of starting pitching available now than there has been in a long while. If it were an absolutely sure thing that Cliff Lee would get us two rounds into the playoffs, I'd consider trading Yonder Alonso, but, as mth123 points out, trading Jay Bruce is just self-defeating. I don't, however, consider Yonder Alonso blocked, even at first base, because I don't think it's anything like a lock that Joey Votto will be on this team for more than two more years. I guess for some of you younger folks who have never seen the team win anything, it'd be a big deal to win the division. To some of us older folks, it's not that much of a big deal. I want to see them win every game and be in contention every year. And I don't believe you can get to that goal by very short-term thinking.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I don't, however, consider Yonder Alonso blocked, even at first base, because I don't think it's anything like a lock that Joey Votto will be on this team for more than two more years.

So let's be sure to keep a 23 year old guy in AAA because he might get some PT three years from now? Awesome.

I guess for some of you younger folks who have never seen the team win anything, it'd be a big deal to win the division. To some of us older folks, it's not that much of a big deal. I want to see them win every game and be in contention every year. And I don't believe you can get to that goal by very short-term thinking.

Actually, I think it is the complete opposite. I think it's the younger posters that want to hoard prospects, while the older (you pick- wiser or more skeptical) among us are willing to cash them in for postseason contention. See MWM's, FCB's, and my own (as three people who have been around for a while) posts for more clarity on that issue, if you need it.