Drew Stubbs

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

He reminds me a bit of another wiry miscast leadoff hitter who hit .268/.304/.432 as a 25 year old rookie after a not terribly impressive AAA stint. Of course, that guy has done his best work batting leadoff, despite not being a good fit for it.

We're supposed to guess? Red or non Red? Or at least what team did he play for in his rookie year?

[BRM]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

We're supposed to guess? Red or non Red? Or at least what team did he play for in his rookie year?

Alfonso Soriano

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by BRM

Alfonso Soriano

Thanks.

A long as Stubbs doesn't field like Soriano, I'll be happy.

[TRF]

I'm trying to imagine Stubbs hitting .268.

Here is the thing, Soriano never abandoned his power in the leadoff spot. From 2006 to 2008, he was the leadoff hitter for WAS and CHI. His power and contact was never a problem. Because he could hit .285+, and as high as .308 added to his power meant he wasn't an easy out. He walked as many as 58 times, but his OBP was heavily hit driven. Truth is, Soriano could flat out hit, something Stubbs has yet to do really at any level. Soriano may have been a hacker, sort of a Vlad-lite, but with immense power. Stubbs so far lacks the skill to put the bat on the ball like that. Or rather he hasn't shown it in the leadoff spot. He is showing it lower in the order. Thats the human part of the game. He just isn't a leadoff hitter, where Soriano could hit anywhere.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by TRF

I'm trying to imagine Stubbs hitting .268.

He did it in his trial last year.
His "last 28 day" split at Baseball reference reads 264/333/483.

I know you can't cherry pick like that and all the games count. His numbers last year come during a September league and over the last 28 days the reds have had some healthy doses of pirate and astro's....but still it's pretty plain that he CAN do it.

His line against righties is what's holding him back. He hits righties worse than Brandon Phillips does and there is a lot of right handed pitching in the league.

He's miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that's not Stubb's fault any more than it is Phillips fault that he's not a cleanup hitter.

A healthy Chris Dickerson that would take away some of those at bats against tough righties would make Stubbs line look better.

I don't see Eric Davis, but he doesn't have to be Eric Davis in order to be a useful player and that's what he is.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dfs

He did it in his trial last year.
His "last 28 day" split at Baseball reference reads 264/333/483.

I know you can't cherry pick like that and all the games count. His numbers last year come during a September league and over the last 28 days the reds have had some healthy doses of pirate and astro's....but still it's pretty plain that he CAN do it.

His line against righties is what's holding him back. He hits righties worse than Brandon Phillips does and there is a lot of right handed pitching in the league.

He's miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that's not Stubb's fault any more than it is Phillips fault that he's not a cleanup hitter.

A healthy Chris Dickerson that would take away some of those at bats against tough righties would make Stubbs line look better.

I don't see Eric Davis, but he doesn't have to be Eric Davis in order to be a useful player and that's what he is.

Again, I'm not critiquing Stubbs as much as I am how the Reds have handled him to date.

[RedsManRick]

I wasn't trying make any specific point using the Stubbs/Soriano comparison other than to point out that it's an interesting comp.

The issue with Stubbs has always been two-fold:
1) Can he make enough contact?
2) Can he still hit for power if he's making enough contact?

His contact rate has been better in the 7-hole, as evidenced by his lowered strikeout (and walk) rates. However, his BABIP is WAY up in the 7 hole, from .189 to .389 as is his ISO, from .120 to .259. However, I don't know how much of that is due to him actually making better contact and, more importantly, we have no clue if that's a function of moving in the lineup, facing easier pitching, experience, dumb luck or what-have-you.

In any event, I'd like to see him stick in the 7 hole for awhile just to keep the pressure off and take one variable out of the equation. He can succeed striking out as much as he does -- he's right at the edge. But to do so, he's going to need to take a fair share of walks and he's going to have to hit for power when he does make contact. You can not be a productive singles hitter and a poor contact hitter -- they just don't jive.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I wasn't trying make any specific point using the Stubbs/Soriano comparison other than to point out that it's an interesting comp.

The issue with Stubbs has always been two-fold:
1) Can he make enough contact?
2) Can he still hit for power if he's making enough contact?

His contact rate has been better in the 7-hole, as evidenced by his lowered strikeout (and walk) rates. However, his BABIP is WAY up in the 7 hole, from .189 to .389 as is his ISO, from .120 to .259. However, I don't know how much of that is due to him actually making better contact and, more importantly, we have no clue if that's a function of moving in the lineup, facing easier pitching, experience, dumb luck or what-have-you.

In any event, I'd like to see him stick in the 7 hole for awhile just to keep the pressure off and take one variable out of the equation. He can succeed striking out as much as he does -- he's right at the edge. But to do so, he's going to need to take a fair share of walks and he's going to have to hit for power when he does make contact. You can not be a productive singles hitter and a poor contact hitter -- they just don't jive.

Exactly. I'm starting to buy into the power. Its the human element of the game that seems screwed up. If he buys into himself as a power guy, it completely changes him as a hitter. All the rest, the speed, SB's, the walks then supplement his game, and are not the focus. I choe Davis as his comp because he was a Red, but I see the Soriano comp, especially if he can get over the contact issue and focus on power over singles. the walks and SB's will take care of themself as he'll be on base more.

simply put... he needs to hit better.

[fearofpopvol1]

Stubbs' OPS for the season now is almost .700. Not amazing, but not bad either...especially whilst he is batting lower in the lineup. He had a good night last night.

[camisadelgolf]

Stubbs is outperforming B.J. Upton this season.

[PuffyPig]

Stubbs has his OPS close to .700, and amonth ago many thought he'd have trouble hitting above .600.

At .700 , with his speed and defense, he's a bona fide major league player.

If he can hit .240-250 (he's about .220 now), his OPS should be in the .750-.760 range, and he's actually be an above average CF for us.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm just glad he's getting consistent PA. All players need to adjust when they come up to the majors. I don't know if he'll adjust enough to stick, but with his glove and speed, he should get every opportunity to do so.

Yes I agree. Stubbs is part of the youth movement/rebuild that everyone has been screaming for. Now that we finally have a decent CF prospect, we need to show a little bit of patience. Maybe Stubbs will stick at the ML level, maybe not. The guy certainly has the tools. Let's give him the entire year at CF and at least give him the opportunity to grow into the job. He's a great defender, that certainly makes it easier to be patient (as opposed to someone like Larson who had fewer tools and could not field worth a darn).

[VR]

Speed/ Defense were mentioned. He also eats up a lot of pitches...4.2 per plate appearance...tied w/ Dunner for 15th in the NL.

[dougdirt]

Drew Stubbs triple tonight showed just how fast he is. I went back and timed him with my stop watch. From home to third he ran 10.4 seconds. I have timed a bunch of guys in the minor leagues on triples. I have never even had another sub 11 second time on a triple.

[fearofpopvol1]

I imagine his OPS is over 700 now?