Drew Stubbs

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Right. And I get that argument. But you were concluding that because he wasn't using it in the minor leagues that therefore it didn't exist. The crux of the issue was that many players don't start developing their power until closer to 'prime' age and thereby it doesn't start showing until they're in the majors.

The old adage, "minor league doubles become major league homers," applies here. If you look at Stubbs' extra base hit percentage from the minors until now, it's virtually the same - but those doubles are going now for home runs.

Major League XBH% - 7.5%
Minor League XBH% - 7.6%

The difference is that he's now hitting homers at 3.5% in the majors versus 1.6% in the minors.

What little power he displayed at Dayton, evaporated over the next two seasons. His development as a leadoff hitter IMO quashed his power as the organization emphasized an approach that made his power secondary at best. Had he not made the Reds out of ST, that same development path may have continued. BTW, that old adage is silly. It's an outlier adage when scouts/coaches like a skillset that hasn't really made itself known. Will Michael Stanton's HR's be longer once he gets called up? Of course not.

Stubbs problem wasn't that he didn't hit the ball hard, his approach to hitting period was flawed. Now that he's not as concerned about getting on base, guess what? he's getting on base. It's building his confidence. He's still drawing BB's, but now pitchers are respecting his power. I've only managed to see a few games, but he looks different at the plate batting lower in the order. I can only guess why, and maybe its just a small sample size and he'll go back to being the player he was in April/early May.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

And I still say its wrong. Willy Taveras does not have power. Corey Patterson does. Neither guy used it in Cincinnati, but one guy had it and one guy didn't. There is a large difference between using it and having the ability to use it. Some guys don't have it. Some guys don't use it. Large difference. Stubbs has always had it. He just didn't always use it.

My point is it doesn't matter. Don't have it. Don't use it. Same result. And it wasn't like Stubbs didn't use it by choice. He lost the ability to use it after Dayton.

And that is all on the Reds minor league coaches.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

My point is it doesn't matter. Don't have it. Don't use it. Same result. And it wasn't like Stubbs didn't use it by choice. He lost the ability to use it after Dayton.

And that is all on the Reds minor league coaches.

Errrr, incorrect again. Stubbs used it in the FSL, but it went unnoticed because you are only looking at his numbers and not paying attention to the context. He then went to AA/AAA and slugged .437 that same season. Sure, in 2009 he didn't use it in AAA.

And the largest difference you continue to overlook is not having it means you will never have it. Not using it means you could hit for power one day. Willy Taveras will never hit for power. Drew Stubbs will and has. Pretending its the same is just flat out ridiculous.

[Will M]

Originally Posted by nate

He currently is at 0.6 WAR. I think UZR is selling him short in CF so that's probably a little lighter than his true contribution. As the season goes on, UZR will capture his defensive value more accurately and he could end up with the 2-ish WAR projection.

i don't know. he has the wheels but i haven't been seeing a super defender in CF in the games i have watched. he has dropped a few. he has misplayed a few. i'm not saying he is a bad defender. just that so far IMO i wouldn't be giving him a gold glove.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by TRF

Sometimes players shouldn't hit in certain slots.

I think the issue is less with the slot # that Drew Stubbs is hitting in but, rather, who is batting around Drew Stubbs.

When Joey Votto is sitting in the hole, you pitch carefully to avoid letting him hit with runners on. When Johnny Cueto or Aaron Harang is sitting in the hole, you can let it rip to Stubbs and feel confident in retiring one of the next two guys.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Will M

i don't know. he has the wheels but i haven't been seeing a super defender in CF in the games i have watched. he has dropped a few. he has misplayed a few. i'm not saying he is a bad defender. just that so far IMO i wouldn't be giving him a gold glove.

Really? In my eyes, Stubbs has been a super defender. Yeah, he's lost a couple of balls in the lights but other than that he's been great, IMO. I saw Franklin Gutierrez take a terrible route on a flyball a few days ago and turned it into an extra-base hit. It happens to even the best of defenders sometimes. I think Stubbs is one of the top two defensive center fielders in the game.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by TRF

I think there is a human element to the game that often gets overlooked. Much like Todd Coffey wasn't suited to close, but often excelled in the setup role. Sometimes players shouldn't hit in certain slots.

Brandon Phillips as the #2 hitter: .304 .370 .478 .848

Yes, it's 115 AB's, but for whatever reason, he's been tremendous there. Is his approach different? His mindset? I have no idea, but it sure is working.


Stubbs as the #7 hitter, 91 AB's .330 .386 .571 .957. That is an astounding line. It's a Joey Votto line. Add in his defense, and he's likely the team's best player.

You bring up a very good point. I don't agree with most, if not all of what you have said about Stubbs and his development during his time in the Reds organization. I think there is a large human element that does get over looked especially when you deal with certain slots in the order, as well as the players who are in those slots.

For example I think Stubbs was doing everything that is typically wanted in the lead off slot, he just wasn't successful. You wanted him to take pitches and he did that, he just often got behind in the count and ended up walking back to the dugout after a strike out. Its a tough position to put a rookie in, but is compounded even more by Stubbs contact issues. Most people scoffed this preseason when Larkin said he liked Cabrera in the lead off role but Cabrera has played pretty well in that capacity. He will see a lot of pitches and is a good contact hitter. He can fall behind in the count 1-2 or 2-2, foul pitches off, and see a number of pitches. He can do something that Stubbs was unable to do.

Phillips is another interesting case in that I cringe whenever he is inserted into the 4 spot. I really think he plays mind games because he thinks he needs to be the power hitter in the order. Its never good when you have a player try and change his approach based upon line up slot.

[lollipopcurve]

My point is it doesn't matter. Don't have it. Don't use it. Same result.

This kind of evaluation would not get a scout very far.

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Really? In my eyes, Stubbs has been a super defender. Yeah, he's lost a couple of balls in the lights but other than that he's been great, IMO. I saw Franklin Gutierrez take a terrible route on a flyball a few days ago and turned it into an extra-base hit. It happens to even the best of defenders sometimes. I think Stubbs is one of the top two defensive center fielders in the game.

Happens when fans watch EVERY single play during a season.

Stubbs has made some amazing plays this year. His range is the best I have seen in person by far this year.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Errrr, incorrect again. Stubbs used it in the FSL, but it went unnoticed because you are only looking at his numbers and not paying attention to the context. He then went to AA/AAA and slugged .437 that same season. Sure, in 2009 he didn't use it in AAA.

And the largest difference you continue to overlook is not having it means you will never have it. Not using it means you could hit for power one day. Willy Taveras will never hit for power. Drew Stubbs will and has. Pretending its the same is just flat out ridiculous.

And you continue to ignore the sample sizes of that 2008 season, which in my mind is ridiculous. You also excuse his performance in the AFL saying he was tired. Funny how other players that logged just as many innings weren't. You also hold fast to subjective stats like LD% which are unreliable in the lower minors.

You also keep thinking my statement is a criticism of Stubbs, when I have clearly stated it's on the Reds development staff. If you have a skill, but aren't taught BY YOUR INSTRUCTORS how to properly use it, then you aren't likely to develop it to its true potential. The Reds were incorrectly trying to address his contact issues by trying to get him to see more pitches. As you have stated he was letting a lot of pitches he could drive go right down the middle. The result was less contact, more K's and his OBP suffered, because he wasn't getting hits. Now he seems more aggressive, looking for pitches to drive. That's because of Baker and the coaches at the MLB level. And wow, he's still drawing the BB's. But its approach that is important. Had the Reds not promoted him out of ST, and kept him at AAA, I have no doubt he'd have been leading off and duplicating his numbers from last year, .675 as a leadoff hitter, .748 as #2 hitter with BABIP's of .344 and .358 respectfully, indicating he was lucky to post the numbers he did.

The Reds development staff gets an F for Stubbs, the Reds MLB coaches a B and climbing for recognizing he's not a leadoff hitter and emphasizing his power game.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

This kind of evaluation would not get a scout very far.

Scouting is different from developing.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by TRF

Do you have any idea how hard that was for me to type?!

Are you ready to type that he's not a bust?

[lollipopcurve]

Scouting is different from developing.

It's hard to make the argument that Stubbs was poorly developed given his performance in the major leagues so far.

You've misunderstood things about this player for a long time, though.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Will M

i don't know. he has the wheels but i haven't been seeing a super defender in CF in the games i have watched. he has dropped a few. he has misplayed a few. i'm not saying he is a bad defender. just that so far IMO i wouldn't be giving him a gold glove.

Very much like Jay Bruce's rookie yr when he booted quite a few

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by TRF

The Reds development staff gets an F for Stubbs, the Reds MLB coaches a B and climbing for recognizing he's not a leadoff hitter and emphasizing his power game.

This makes no sense. The Reds get an F for developing a player for over 3 years that is now producing at the Major League level?

So those 3 years they did terrible with Stubbs, but somehow, miraculously, the Major League staff was able to correct 3 years of poor instruction in roughly 5 months of hands-on work?

Right.

The fact that Stubbs is now starting to reach some of his offensive potential, to me, is evidence maybe all those years of development wasn't so poor after all.