Drew Stubbs

[TRF]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

One of Frazier's biggest plus is his ability to play multiple positions. You can bemoan the fact that he doesn't have a true position, but he creates value with his versatility. There are many cases in which a player is developed in the minors at one position but is shifted to another in the majors.

I can't think of a teams top prospect that was ever handled this way,

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Bad comp. Strasburg was rightfully considered to be polished and almost MLB ready when he was drafted last year. Stubbs on the other hand was considered a raw prospect, even though he had 3 years of major college baseball under him.

I was referring to Chapman here, but didn't make it clear. My bad.

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Don't understand this logic either. If the Reds feel Alonso's bat is a difference making type of bat then it makes all the sense in the world to move him off of 1b. You aren't going to move Votto, who has made himself into a top tier 1b in the game, and Alonso doesn't have a place to play. If he can play LF and is able to hit then he provides the Reds great value, more so than any trade value he possesses. When drafted many people thought he had the ability to become a .300/.400/.500+ player. If the Reds still feel he had that type of ability, he has more value to the Reds in LF than he does in any trade.

Except He was clearly never thought of that way by anyone. Most on this board advocated moving Votto, the team's BEST player in favor of Alonso. He's had to concentrate so much on his defense in LF that it is likely affecting him at the plate. Plus he's had to deal with some injuries which have sappped his power. I won't be surprised to see him drop out of the top 10 in most lists after this season. The Reds put an added burden on a player coming off an injury AND have him at AAA, probably too soon based on his development, not age.

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

FWIW Teixeira has a sub .700 OPS right now for the Yankees, are they misusing him? Or are we jumping to conclusions due to a small sample size?

Yeah, because comparing Tex to Alonso is apples to apples. oy vey.

[Scrap Irony]

Offensively, over the past four years, the Reds have developed two All Star level offensive players (Votto and Bruce) and another starter and a half (Stubbs and Hanigan) that are above average players for their respective positions.

In the rotation, the Reds have developed three starters (LeCure, Bailey, and Cueto), two of which have TOR arms and have, in the past, had fairly long stretches of All Star caliber play. Another starter, Mike Leake, was the rarest of birds who needed no minor league experience. That said, the Red minor league and front office personell were astute enough to promote him aggressively.

On the bench, the Reds have two above replacement level guys developed by the farm, in Janish and Heisey.

In the pen, Cincinnati currently has three guys developed completely in the Red pipeline.

That's half the 25 man roster developed by Cincinnati minor league coaches in the past four years. Of those 25, four are first round picks, two are supplimental picks, and the rest are low round guys or free agents. For edification's sake, if you're not picked in the first round, the likelihood of making the majors is less than 10%. The likelihood of making an impact in the major leagues is less than 2%.

I'd argue that the Reds have done a fine job of developing their minor leaguers and that you have a completely unrealistic expectation of prospects. It's a discussion we've had in the past.

[westofyou]

I'd argue that the Reds have done a fine job of developing their minor leaguers and that you have a completely unrealistic expectation of prospects. It's a discussion we've had in the past.

Quoted for truth, the Reds problem has been getting talent, they have not exactly jettisoned loads of players to other organizations that turned into a swan.

[TRF]

TOR arms and TOR skills are two different things. I'm not sure Bailey is better now than he was two years ago. Cueto is up and down, both are young, but I'm still waiting for that superstar talent to appear.

Want to know what separates Votto from all the rest the Reds developed? He was actually developed. He wasn't fast tracked. Imagine if the Reds had done that with Dunn or Bruce. What if Dunn continued to develop the skills of hitting to all fields? So we miss 2 years of him at the MLB level.

I know teams generally tend to rush the top picks. economics dictate this, but you have to know when to slow down. I really don't expect top prospects to struggle at the plate once they reach AAA. Sure it happens, but it shouldn't happen. There was no need to promote Alonso to AAA. Sean Henry could have gone. They had similar numbers, Henry had AAA experience, and Yonder was still regaining strength in his hand. It was an aggressive promotion for a player coming off injury. Put it this way, Yonder profiles to be at best Adam Dunn in LF. I doubt he has his bat.

You think I have unrealistic expectations. Thats wrong. What I expect is an organization to make better decisions regarding the talent it has.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by TRF

I can't think of a teams top prospect that was ever handled this way,

Think harder!

In recent memory Albert Pujols came up without a position. In his first few years in the league he played 1b, 3b, LF, RF. His main position was 1b but it was blocked by McGwire.

Also Miguel Cabrera came up doing the same thing for the Marlins. He played LF, RF, and 3b. It wasn't until he got to Detroit that he finally started playing his natural position.

Frazier most likely isn't in the league of those two but there are two prime examples of guys who really didn't have a position early on in their career. Their versatility enabled their bat to play in the lineup every day.

Except He was clearly never thought of that way by anyone. Most on this board advocated moving Votto, the team's BEST player in favor of Alonso. He's had to concentrate so much on his defense in LF that it is likely affecting him at the plate. Plus he's had to deal with some injuries which have sappped his power. I won't be surprised to see him drop out of the top 10 in most lists after this season. The Reds put an added burden on a player coming off an injury AND have him at AAA, probably too soon based on his development, not age.

Im not saying that you are wrong, its more of a negative view point on Alonso. Granted I wasn't enamored by the pick it still has a chance to work out. I feel that Alonso in LF for the Reds maximizes his overall value. You can trade him but a couple month rental won't be able to replace the potential value that Alonso has. It may never come to fruition, but I also think that this Reds organization thinks very highly of Alonso's bat, moving him to LF in order to give him a chance to play.

As for moving Votto I don't know why so many people were in favor of that. I think a lot of people though Votto couldn't be "that good" or his "mental issues" would be a problem throughout his entire career. Again I think Votto is "that good" and don't buy much into his mental issues. I think its clearly evident that if Alonso is going to make hey in the Reds organization its going to be in LF. I don't see him playing 1b for the Reds unless Votto goes on the DL.

Yeah, because comparing Tex to Alonso is apples to apples. oy vey.

Not saying that Tex = Alonso. Just making the point that players struggle, even the best players struggle. Tex is in the middle of a woeful beginning to his season. Does that mean he is a bad hitter? Same thing with Alonso, he is learning a new position and coming off an injury. His numbers aren't exactly evident of his skill. I am putting my faith in the Reds organization to develop these players and determine when they are ready to play at the next level.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Quoted for truth, the Reds problem has been getting talent, they have not exactly jettisoned loads of players to other organizations that turned into a swan.

Is that because of the talent offered or that said talent wasn't developed properly. I don't know the answer to that, but it sure seems like Rolen is awfully swan like.

DRH and Volquez for Hamilton. Lots of talent in that deal. Massett has had an... interesting year, but the Reds got him for Jr. when Jr. had almost no value. The last 6 drafts have seen a bunch of talent infused into the system. But it doesn't seem to be developing. Chicken or egg? bad scouting or bad developing? I think the latter.

[TRF]

Interesting that you mention Pujols. Pujols DEVELOPED into a top prospect, but wasn't he a 13th round pick? Also in the minors, 1 year, he played every game but 2 at 3B. Not really the same is it. Cabrera is a 1B, a position he never played in the minors, 168 at SS, 161 at 3B. 3 games in the OF and 1 at 2B.

Now lets look at Todd Frazier, the Reds top prospect a year ago.

4 Seasons	POS       G	
	
LF (3 seasons)	LF	103	
1B (3 seasons)	1B	 43	
SS (2 seasons)	SS	112	
3B (3 seasons)	3B	 43	
2B (1 season)	2B	 37

Not even close to the same. All over the field, no plan whatsoever.

[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by TRF

The last 6 drafts have seen a bunch of talent infused into the system. But it doesn't seem to be developing. Chicken or egg? bad scouting or bad developing? I think the latter.

The last 6 drafts have seen the following Major Leaguers:
Homer Bailey(2004)
Jay Bruce(2005)
Sam Lecure(2005)
Carlos Fisher(2005)
Adam Rosales(2005)
Logan Ondrusek(2005)
Drew Stubbs(2006)
Chris Heisey(2006)
Josh Roenicke(2006)
Mike Leake(2009)

That's four first round picks who have made at least a decent impact on the big league team.
The other two first rounders are Mesarosco(who was expected to take at least 4-5 years and seems to be coming around) and Alonso.

Also, that 2005 draft was unreal, Bruce, Wood, and four other major leaguers?

[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by TRF

Interesting that you mention Pujols. Pujols DEVELOPED into a top prospect, but wasn't he a 13th round pick? Also in the minors, 1 year, he played every game but 2 at 3B. Not really the same is it. Cabrera is a 1B, a position he never played in the minors, 168 at SS, 161 at 3B. 3 games in the OF and 1 at 2B.

Now lets look at Todd Frazier, the Reds top prospect a year ago.

4 Seasons	POS       G	
	
LF (3 seasons)	LF	103	
1B (3 seasons)	1B	 43	
SS (2 seasons)	SS	112	
3B (3 seasons)	3B	 43	
2B (1 season)	2B	 37

Not even close to the same. All over the field, no plan whatsoever.

I'm not sure what you're arguing her TRF. Are you suggesting that Frazier's OPS would be higher if he only played one position on defense? Because from the way I see it, his OPS is good but not great unless he can capably play a bunch of different positions.

If the former is correct, than you're right, they've done him and themselves a disservice. If the latter is correct, than they'd be doing him a disservice to only play him at 3B, LF, 1B or wherever.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by TRF

I know teams generally tend to rush the top picks. economics dictate this, but you have to know when to slow down. I really don't expect top prospects to struggle at the plate once they reach AAA. Sure it happens, but it shouldn't happen. There was no need to promote Alonso to AAA. Sean Henry could have gone. They had similar numbers, Henry had AAA experience, and Yonder was still regaining strength in his hand. It was an aggressive promotion for a player coming off injury. Put it this way, Yonder profiles to be at best Adam Dunn in LF. I doubt he has his bat.

You think I have unrealistic expectations. Thats wrong. What I expect is an organization to make better decisions regarding the talent it has.

My take is the Reds are exceedingly patient with their top picks, maybe even to a fault. It's very common nowadays for top picks to skip AAA completely. For example Florida is bringing up their young slugger Mike Stanton as we speak and he is bypassing AAA altogether. Jason Heyward of the Braves played 3 games at AAA and only 47 games in AA. Tim Lincecum had 5 games at AAA, 0 games at AA. Albert Pujols 3 games at AAA, 0 games at AA.

Seems like a lot of other successfully developed guys were sent into the fire with very little upper minor league seasoning.

I think the Reds should promote from AA more often. I think guys sometimes get screwed up toiling in AAA

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

The last 6 drafts have seen the following Major Leaguers:
Homer Bailey(2004)
Jay Bruce(2005)
Sam Lecure(2005)
Carlos Fisher(2005)
Adam Rosales(2005)
Logan Ondrusek(2005)
Drew Stubbs(2006)
Chris Heisey(2006)
Josh Roenicke(2006)
Mike Leake(2009)

That's four first round picks who have made at least a decent impact on the big league team.
The other two first rounders are Mesarosco(who was expected to take at least 4-5 years and seems to be coming around) and Alonso.

Also, that 2005 draft was unreal, Bruce, Wood, and four other major leaguers?

An impact on this team. On the Reds. Only because they appeared on the major league roster. Leake is an outlier. What he's doing never happens, and I have to throw him out as the development people never really touched him.

I wouldn't say Bailey has made a positive impact just yet. Bruce isn't a superstar at the plate. Well above average, but not an uber player just yet. The rest are average at best. Could they have been more? What would we be saying about Stubbs had the Reds emphasized his power potential instead of seeing him as a leadoff hitter? As the #7 hitter this year, his numbers rival Rolen's and Votto's and Bruce hitting 5th. It sure does seem like Dusty has finally found the right batting order (another topic, but my goodness look at the splits with the current lineup. just ridiculous!)

Fraziers progress has been slow, but he's all over the field. No comfort zone. Dorn, slow and steady, outhitting Stubbs at every level, currently DL'd with a hand injury i think. Valaika, outhit Stubbs everywhere, still in AAA. Mesoraco in AA, drafted the year after Stubbs, and is what? 20? 21? What is driving the promotions? Age, talent or bonus money? Economics plays a role, I'm not so dense i don't see that. You don't want 2 million dollars toiling in AA, especially if said 2 mil belongs to a 24 year old.

I don't think the Reds mess up every player. I think they miss on a few of the players they have. Players they shouldn't miss on.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

My take is the Reds are exceedingly patient with their top picks, maybe even to a fault. It's very common nowadays for top picks to skip AAA completely. For example Florida is bringing up their young slugger Mike Stanton as we speak and he is bypassing AAA altogether. Jason Heyward of the Braves played 3 games at AAA and only 47 games in AA. Tim Lincecum had 5 games at AAA, 0 games at AA. Albert Pujols 3 games at AAA, 0 games at AA.

Seems like a lot of other successfully developed guys were sent into the fire with very little upper minor league seasoning.

I think the Reds should promote from AA more often. I think guys sometimes get screwed up toiling in AAA

I think you might be letting the tail wag the dog here. Those guys skipped AAA not because it was the team's philosophy to do so necessarily but because it was obvious that they were ready for the majors.

There's a BIG difference between utterly destroying the minors despite being young for the league like Heyward and Lincecum (Pujols is a freak and let's hold off on Stanton until he has some major league success -- he's got contact issues and Brandon Wood and Brandon Larson hit for big power in the minors too).

Frazier and Alonso are both talented guys, but neither has torn up their league (save for Frazier torching A ball as a 22 year old).

I'm struggling to find an example where a young Reds prospect beat up his league for a full season and yet the Reds didn't advance him either immediately or very quickly the following year.

The issue is that the Reds simply haven't had many, if any, superb prospects who destroyed the minors, let alone having a guy like that and a reasonable spot for them in the majors. Maybe Bruce could've come up sooner but he wasn't going to replace Junior.

Who do you think the Reds should have promoted earlier and who are getting screwed up in AAA? Frazier, who hit .290/.350/.481 in AA when the Reds had Phillips and Rolen at the two positions he played? Alonso, who has hit .282/.380/.432 when the Reds have Votto in the majors?

[pedro]

Originally Posted by TRF

I don't think the Reds mess up every player. I think they miss on a few of the players they have. Players they shouldn't miss on.

I think you are completely misunderstanding the nature of development. Some players are able to adjust and grow and others are not, more often than not this has more to do with the player than the system. IMO you are placing way too much emphasis on the teams role in this while making what I believe to be a false assumption that when a players succeeds the Reds did something right and when they don't the Reds did something wrong. Things just aren't that simple.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm struggling to find an example where a young Reds prospect beat up his league for a full season and yet the Reds didn't advance him either immediately or very quickly the following year.

The issue is that the Reds simply haven't had many, if any, superb prospects who destroyed the minors, let alone having a guy like that and a reasonable spot for them in the majors. Maybe Bruce could've come up sooner but he wasn't going to replace Junior.

I can give you several examples. Travis Wood last year was 9-3 with a 1.21 earnie at AA. Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey also had huge AA and AAA numbers. Other teams would have promoted these guys right away but the Reds decided to leave them for more seasoning.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

I can give you several examples. Travis Wood last year was 9-3 with a 1.21 earnie at AA. Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey also had huge AA and AAA numbers. Other teams would have promoted these guys right away but the Reds decided to leave them for more seasoning.

Bruce had a great half seasons in A+ ball in 2007 before being promoted to AA. After just 16 games in AA, he was promoted to AAA. The Reds meanwhile had an OF of Dunn, Hamilton, and Junior. All three were hitting very well. At the start of 2008, the Reds wanted to give Bruce a little more time. He continued to mash in AAA, Corey Patterson bombed, and Bruce was up by the end of May. Should they have promoted in 2007? I find it hard to make the case. Should they have started him in CF in 2008, maybe. But they didn't exactly take long to remedy that and I find it extremely specious to suggest that 2 extra months in AAA as a 21 year old somehow stunted his growth.

Bailey had 13 good starts in AA in 2006. In 2007 he had 12 good starts in AAA before getting promoted to the majors. He bombed in the majors. In 2008, he had 2 mediocre months in AAA and was promoted again. He bombed again and finished the year in AAA. In 2009, he dominated AAA for 14 starts before being promoted for a 3rd time. He's been here since. If anything, that pattern suggests to me that he was advanced to the majors too early - not too late. Surely you aren't suggesting that he would be a better pitcher if he came straight to the majors in 2007 having just turned 21 and throwing less than 70 pitches above high A?

Travis Wood got crushed over 17 stars AA ball in 2008. In 2009, he pitched extremely well in AA, though with a ridiculous, unsustainably low HR rate. The Reds promoted him to AAA where he pitched well, but not great. Should he have been promoted to the majors over Justin Lehr? Maybe. Over Matt Maloney? I don't see how you could argue that consider both players' ceilings and Maloney's significant AAA success. And now this year, Wood was the last pitcher cut during camp and is pitching ok, but not great in AAA.

I get your basic premise. Sometimes guys don't need AAA seasoning. In some circumstances, a team is just wasting time by taking a guy through AAA when he could perform in the majors -- better than existing alternatives. In the abstract, I agree. But the Reds simply haven't had any recent examples where a guy clearly was ready but was held back arbitrarily, save maybe for 2 months of Jay Bruce (who didn't exactly light the world on fire during his rookie campaign).

I'm curious how you would have handled any of those 3 guys differently, even in light of the benefit of hindsight.