Cliff Lee

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by reds44

Not at all. The goal is to win Championships, not make the playoffs.

Yeah, if the goal is to just have regular season fun lets just stop keeping score.

[Will M]

I suspect when people hear 'Twins' they think of a team that makes the playoffs a lot only to get wiped out in the post season. this is not what i want the Reds to try & do. while it would be better than the last decade it would ultimately be unsatisfying.

now we would all love for Bob to sell the team to a billionaire who raises the payroll to $200M but thats not gonna happen. the team is going to be a smaller market club. luckilly most of our division rivals are in the same boat.

here is what i would like to see the Reds try: build a team that can compete for the Central division title and/or wild card year after year. an occasional losing season brought about by poor luck & injuries will happen but i want a team that wins at least 85 games 8 out of 10 years. once in the post season i of course want to win. building a team of massive sluggers won't cut it. what wins in October? a team with a couple aces. strong defense. a team that can manufacture runs. sluggers who feast on weak pitching often struggle in the post season due to having to face good pitching night after night. its a bit of a catch 22. lets say you have decent starters but good depth. you have a starting eight full of power hitters. sounds like a great way to get to the postseason yet also a recipe for not advancing in the post season.

so what to do?
1. try & have two TOR starters & two all star caliber hitters to hit 3-4. thats the core of the team. how? draft well & develop well. the 'A' prospects stay in the system. no Cueto for Blanton deals. no Bailey for Dye deals. not every 'A' prospect is going to be an all star but the Reds aren't going to get these guys on the open market. they must come from within. the 'b' & 'c' prospects can be traded to improve the big league club as long as you don't go overboard. the team needs these guys to fill out the 25 man roster cheaply
2. be extremely cautious regarding long term deals. we have all seen the folly of even a 3 years deal (Milton). guys who get a LTC need to be hard working guys who have a clean health history & are not too old.
3. go cheap on the closer. $80M doesn't go very far so the Billy Bean type closer seems better than the $11.5M closer. its not that Coco isn't good. is just that if the team spent $5M on a closer they'd have $6.5M to spend elsewhere
4. try as much as possible to draft & develop the key positions: SS,C & CF.
certain positions are a lot easier to fill on the open market. an example is Jocketty seeming to always get a cheap second baseman when he was Cards GM. left field seems like another position that would be a lot easier to fill on the cheap than say shortstop.

now looking at the current team:
i wouldn't make a blockbuster deal for a rental like Lee. i'd trade anyone in the farm system except Chapman in the right deal. i'd add Alosno to the short list if the team feels he can play LF. but trading for a star player usually involves 'A' prospects. i think that the short term benefit is outweighed by the long term harm. now, if the team will revert to its stinky ways after 2010 then i can see why people want to go 'all in' on a big deal. however, i think the team is on the verge of a multiyear run. why? Votto, Bruce & tons of pitching. so i think 2011, 2012, 2013 are going to be years in which we compete. lets just assume that the Reds could trade Chapman & Alonso for a star player who is a rental. the rental helps this year. we then get 2 early picks in the 2011 draft. the team is better in 2010 but worse in 2011, 2012, 2013, etc. plus its no sure thing the draft picks will be any good. two 'A' prospects close to the bigs are worth tons more than 2 draft picks.

just my opinion bu i wanted to clarify it.

[GAC]

Pass. I don't think the Reds are quite yet in the position to be trading away prospects for 2 month rentals.

We need to continue to build, not rent.

Now I wouldn't mind seeing him in a Red's uni if we could clear out some of the other payroll, like Harang, Arroyo, or Cordero, which totals 36M, and it involves talks of signing Lee more long term as a replacement part.

But at some point we are going to have to start committing some of that payroll to those younger players like Votto, Bruce, and others.

And I like what I am seeing from our young pitchers in Cueto, Leake, and Homer. And lets not forget we will be getting Volquez back, and Chapman is in that mix somewhere in the future.

[Benihana]

MLBTR:

Mariners Expect Yankees To Pursue Cliff Lee
By Tim Dierkes [June 9 at 8:03am CST]

The Mariners are preparing for the Yankees to pursue ace lefty Cliff Lee, reports George A. King III of the New York Post. King says the Mariners have already scouted the Yankees' Low A and Double A clubs and aim to watch their Triple A squad soon. King spoke to a "person familiar with Seattle's thought process" who believes Jack Zduriencik will seek Triple A shortstop Eduardo Nunez as well as one of the Yankees' minor league catchers. King suggests that the Yankees would need assurances that they could sign Lee to an extension if they're required to surrender Austin Romine or Jesus Montero.

King believes renting Lee would hold appeal to the Yankees despite their strong rotation. The Yanks' boast a front five of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, and Javier Vazquez, and it's not clear who they'd bump for Lee. The most likely candidate, Vazquez, has a 2.73 ERA in 33 innings since returning from a break on May 12th. Trading Vazquez to clear a spot for Lee seems a convoluted to me.

With Nick Johnson potentially out for the season, an offensive addition would be more fitting. To that end, King says the Yankees have scouts following the Astros in case Lance Berkman becomes available. Berkman is still owed $11.2MM heading into today's action, however.

So they want a AAA SS and a C?

Sell high on Mesoraco (making sure you can sign Grandal), give them their choice of Cozart/Valaika, and throw in another player (Heisey?) Perhaps that would be enough if there is no window for an extension?


Normally Alonso would be a natural fit here, but he's hitting like Willy Taveras in AAA. It may be a bad time to sell the bottom on him.

Another top of the rotation arm would ease the pressure on the bullpen and give a contingency plan if they need to shut down Leake. Thoughts?

[jojo]

Cliff Lee might be the best pitcher in baseball right now.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by jojo

Cliff Lee might be the best pitcher in baseball right now.

That guy in Colorado objects.

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

That guy in Colorado objects.

That quote was a setup. Get ready for a tidal wave of data.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by jojo

Cliff Lee might be the best pitcher in baseball right now.

Of course there's no bias there...


My point is that if you take that article at face value- the M's are considering trading Lee for Eduardo Nunez and either Austin Romine or Jesus Montero, depending on whether or not they get a negotiation window.

If you look at the numbers, an equivalent package from the Reds would be Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco.

Cozart is 1.8 years older than Nunez but has better career offensive numbers and is very slick with the glove. Mesoraco and Romine are very similar players- both 21 year old former high draft picks now in AA. Romine's career OPS is a little higher, but Mesoraco is having his best year yet. Montero is a different story, as he is probably more comparable to Alonso as he will not play behind the dish at the major league level, albeit a better prospect. Still, Lee wants to test FA by all accounts, and the Reds could probably give up less if they didn't demand the negotiating window which the Yankees would reportedly want for giving up the mentioned package.

I would offer Cozart, Mesoraco, and basically any other hitter in the system if it could get us three months of Cliff Lee. The Reds would immediately become the strong favorite for the division with Lee in tow.

[KoryMac5]

I don't buy the Yankees getting Lee for a second this season. Cashman hates giving up prospects for a guy they can sign on the free agent market next season when Pettite decides to finally hang them up. The only way I see the Yankees stepping in at this point if Lee changes his mind about signing an extension with clubs that are pursuing him on the trade market. If Lee does change his mind he probably will lose a lot of money as he will make more on the open market.

[Nugget]

The story is from the New York Post - say thing the Yankees will get a pitcher that they want. FWIW the Mariners did get a SS and C prospect, their 1st and 2nd picks in the draft. Maybe the NYP just got their lines crossed.

The Mariners will be in decision mode at the end of the weekend as to whether they try to hang on to Lee or get something back for him. If anything they are going to want some POP at 1st and OF. They probably don't need and know they won't get Votto but it will be someone of that skill set.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Nugget

The story is from the New York Post - say thing the Yankees will get a pitcher that they want. FWIW the Mariners did get a SS and C prospect, their 1st and 2nd picks in the draft. Maybe the NYP just got their lines crossed.

The Mariners will be in decision mode at the end of the weekend as to whether they try to hang on to Lee or get something back for him. If anything they are going to want some POP at 1st and OF. They probably don't need and know they won't get Votto but it will be someone of that skill set.

First off, they got a HS kid from Utah who is at least 5 years away from the majors and will not stick at SS. Second, they did not get an impact catcher, unless I am missing something? (They did draft a HS catcher in the 6th round, if that is what you're referring to?)

Finally, the thought that the Mariners could get someone of Joey Votto's skill set for a rental player is downright laughable. Maybe you just meant they could get a 1B/OF offensive type? If so, we have plenty of those between Alonso, Frazier and Francisco- any of which I'd happily trade for Lee.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Of course there's no bias there...

No there isn't.

[WebScorpion]

How is he out of the'pen?

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by jojo

No there isn't.

How has Lee been better than Ubaldo?

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

How has Lee been better than Ubaldo?

I'm actually interested in this answer. I'll be disappointed if the qualifying "might" is used as the excuse.