Cliff Lee

[blumj]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

How has Lee been better than Ubaldo?

Lee practically never walks anyone.

[jojo]

Based upon peripherals....

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by jojo

Based upon peripherals....

This ought to be fun.


Lee has a better K/BB rate, mostly due to his amazing walk rate, which is one fifth of his career rate. He also has given up only one homer, while Jimenez has given up 2. Considering one pitches mostly at Safeco and one at Coors, that's to be expected.

But really what this does is point out the major flaw in peripherals in general and FIP in particular.

Jimenez has been unhittable, as evidence by his absurdly low .229 BAPIP. Lee has a very normal .308 BABIP

Anyone who has watched Jimenez pitch can attest that it is not luck that is causing his low BABIP. No one is getting good swings off this guy, and he realized that he doesn't have to strike everyone out, he can just let them get themselves out with their weak swings off of his unhittable stuff.

I would not be surprised to see Jimenez maintain something close to this low BABIP all season, just like Pedro did when he was dominating hitters.

Lee is having a great year, but he has not been nearly as dominant as Jimenez. Yeah, if you ignore how hittable they each have been, then one could make a case for Lee being better so far. But I think that would not be fair or accurate.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

This ought to be fun.


Lee has a better K/BB rate, mostly due to his amazing walk rate, which is one fifth of his career rate. He also has given up only one homer, while Jimenez has given up 2. Considering one pitches mostly at Safeco and one at Coors, that's to be expected.

But really what this does is point out the major flaw in peripherals in general and FIP in particular.

Jimenez has been unhittable, as evidence by his absurdly low .229 BAPIP. Lee has a very normal .308 BABIP

Anyone who has watched Jimenez pitch can attest that it is not luck that is causing his low BABIP. No one is getting good swings off this guy, and he realized that he doesn't have to strike everyone out, he can just let them get themselves out with their weak swings off of his unhittable stuff.

I would not be surprised to see Jimenez maintain something close to this low BABIP all season, just like Pedro did when he was dominating hitters.

Lee is having a great year, but he has not been nearly as dominant as Jimenez. Yeah, if you ignore how hittable they each have been, then one could make a case for Lee being better so far. But I think that would not be fair or accurate.

Pointing to an unsustainable BABIP to argue examining peripherals is a flawed approach might not be the most unflawed approach.... Just sayin'

If the point is to predict who might have a better second half based upon true skill, Lee is a better bet.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by jojo

Pointing to an unsustainable BABIP to argue examining peripherals is a flawed approach might not be the most unflawed approach.... Just sayin'

If the point is to predict who might have a better second half based upon true skill, Lee is a better bet.

Then let's bet.

I have seen both pitch this season (on TV) and looked over both of their stats. I know who I want to put my money on.

And while .229 might be an unsustainable BABIP, there have been many pitchers who have had dominant seasons who have had exceptionally low BABIP for that season, very close to .229. And speaking of unsustainable, Lee is going to have to sustain a walk rate that is one fifth of his careee rate.

Now we are going to have to define "better", especially considering that one pitches in one of the most, if not the most pitcher fiendly parks, and one pitches in one of, if not the most hitter friendly parks. Any suggestions?

And I'm fine with just being able to say in a post that I was right or wrong as being the end result of the bet.

What do you say? This could be fun.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

Then let's bet.

I have seen both pitch this season (on TV) and looked over both of their stats. I know who I want to put my money on.

And while .229 might be an unsustainable BABIP, there have been many pitchers who have had dominant seasons who have had exceptionally low BABIP for that season, very close to .229. And speaking of unsustainable, Lee is going to have to sustain a walk rate that is one fifth of his careee rate.

Now we are going to have to define "better", especially considering that one pitches in one of the most, if not the most pitcher fiendly parks, and one pitches in one of, if not the most hitter friendly parks. Any suggestions?

And I'm fine with just being able to say in a post that I was right or wrong as being the end result of the bet.

What do you say? This could be fun.

My argument doesn't require either player to sustain anything out of character but rather it is anticipating regression to their true talent (and yes there are assumptions here that I'm assuming most understand are being made and frankly might be wrong)...

For instance Zips regresses both back to it's estimate of their true talent and suggests that going forward Lee would post an ERA of 3.16 and a FIP of 3.10 during the remainder of the season while Jimenez would post an ERA of 3.79 and a FIP of 3.55.

That's not to suggest that Zips is destiny or those numbers are so absolute that they need chiseled into stone. The point is the projections get at differences in true talent however. Those Zips numbers also jive with the last three seasons for each player.

So really the question is how much of Jimenez is real and the result of increased development as a pitcher (i.e. a shift in his true talent) and how much might he regress? Maybe Jimenez will see his BABIP regress (this is almost a certainty) but his walk rate is actually a real improvement (which isn't captured in the projection meaning the projection would underestimate his true talent). That kind of remains to be seen.

At this point however, i'm arguing that its more likely Lee's performance is closer to a sustainable level than Jimenez's.

BTW, I don't bet but for what its worth, the argument is pretty clearly and strongly stated for posterity's sake. Even if it's wrong, I'm comfortable with the process. And really, the difference between the two isn't like a "do I take Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf" moment...

[TheNext44]

That sucks, I agree with everything you wrote. Great analysis. Dead on. I was hoping to have a fun debate. Oh well.

[kaldaniels]

I agree that Lee's stats are more sustainable. But that doesn't answer the question of who is/will be better.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I agree that Lee's stats are more sustainable. But that doesn't answer the question of who is/will be better.

Lee is better of course.

[Falls City Beer]

Lee pitches in the woeful AL West, while Jimenez pitches in the far more competitive (and offense-heavy) NL West.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Lee pitches in the woeful AL West, while Jimenez pitches in the far more competitive (and offense-heavy) NL West.

Lee plays in a tougher league and doesn't get to strike out pitchers.

[TRF]

Jimenez doesn't get to pitch in Safeco

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by TRF

Jimenez doesn't get to pitch in Safeco

But he does get to face pitchers.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by TRF

Jimenez doesn't get to pitch in Safeco

He's (Lee) been better on the road as a Mariner.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

I would not be surprised to see Jimenez maintain something close to his low BABIP all season, just like Pedro did when he was dominating hitters.

Just going to ask a question I already know the answer to:

Have you ever checked out his career BAPIP numbers? You would think so considering the above quote.

You really should, you might be surprised.