Opportunity to Buy Low?

[Slyder]

New York Mets have been smoking hot of late and they have a couple decisions coming up with a couple pitchers. Oliver Perez and John Maine are expected to be "healthy" soon. ESPN reported that Maine has likely pitched his last pitch as a New York Met but because of money Perez will be back if he doesnt accept a minor league assignment.

So my question would you buy low on John Maine for a fringe spect?

[Slyder]

Some Numbers:
Contract: 3.3 mil (1st year of arby was this season)
http://www.metsblog.com/2010/01/15/n...s-to-contract/
Age: 29
Expected to be DFA'd upon activation from the DL.
Pitched at AA last night I believe.

Career ERA 4.35
Career WHIP 1.34

Downside:
Only made more than 25 starts once (2007)

[mth123]

Maine makes $3.3 Million. I think he might be able to help, but if he eats up whatever money the Reds have left to acquire guys, I'd pass. If the Reds could get him for some one like a Sean Henry or a Wilkin Castillo and the Mets send along a Million bucks or so, I'd like to see it.

[camisadelgolf]

I don't have any interest in Maine until his velocity returns, and seeing as how he's coming off shoulder surgery, I'm not sure that day will come any time soon.

As for Perez, I only have interest in him as a LOOGY, and even in that case, I'm not sure he has the control to handle that role. Not only that, but he's apparently a clubhouse cancer when he's not in the rotation.

In other words, 'no thanks' to both pitchers.

[reds1869]

Maine is somewhat intriguing but only if the Reds pick him up for next to nothing. I have zero interest in Perez for reasons already mentioned above.

[Slyder]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I don't have any interest in Maine until his velocity returns, and seeing as how he's coming off shoulder surgery, I'm not sure that day will come any time soon.

As for Perez, I only have interest in him as a LOOGY, and even in that case, I'm not sure he has the control to handle that role. Not only that, but he's apparently a clubhouse cancer when he's not in the rotation.

In other words, 'no thanks' to both pitchers.

Perez I wouldnt give a second look at unless the Mets took Harang and sent about 10 mil per for the length of Perez's contract. I was aiming more of Maine and use him as a caddy for Leake, Volquez, Chapman out of the pen and if he shows his velocity and everything is back slide him in when theres an injury or we need an extra day. The Mets dont seem to have any interest in waiting for him so they'd probably go as much as 2 mil just to save on the 40 man spot and the 700k they would still save.

[PuffyPig]

Maine and Perez are certainly no better than Harang and likely much worse.

We should either trade for our #1 guy (a Lee or a Haren) or not at all.

[Redsfan320]

what exactly is the league average ERA for a starter?

320

[mth123]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Maine and Perez are certainly no better than Harang and likely much worse.

We should either trade for our #1 guy (a Lee or a Haren) or not at all.

Yeah, but if he could slide in for Harang and then deal Harang off for Salary relief, it would open the possibility to that #1 guy we all want. Right now I think Money is a huge obstacle and the Reds need to not only add a guy but backfill for a subtraction and I don't trust all the kids for that role (and some will be gone in the deal for a number 1).

[nate]

Unless the Reds record collection is missing Led Zeppelin "Coda," it's time to stop shopping in the bargain bin.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Redsfan320

what exactly is the league average ERA for a starter?

320

as starter:
NL = 4.13
AL = 4.34
MLB = 4.23

as reliever:
NL = 4.15
AL = 4.07
MLB = 4.11

overall:
NL = 4.12
AL = 4.25
MLB = 4.18

[mth123]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

as starter:
NL = 4.13
AL = 4.34
MLB = 4.23

as reliever:
NL = 4.15
AL = 4.07
MLB = 4.11

overall:
NL = 4.12
AL = 4.25
MLB = 4.18

How does the starter average equal 4.13 and the relief average equal 4.15 while the overall equals 4.12? Seems impossible.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by mth123

How does the starter average equal 4.13 and the relief average equal 4.15 while the overall equals 4.12? Seems impossible.

B-R has is at 4.11 and 4.14. In any event, usually the relievers are a fair bit better than starters, but league average is usually in the low to mid 4's.

[Redsfan320]

Thanks for the ERA numbers. I thought I heard someone, I think it was Welsh, say on a Reds telecast that it was usually a whole point higher on average for starters than relievers.

320

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Redsfan320

Thanks for the ERA numbers. I thought I heard someone, I think it was Welsh, say on a Reds telecast that it was usually a whole point higher on average for starters than relievers.

320

If you take a starter and turn him to a reliever, yes, the numbers are something like that. But terms of current performance, there's less of a discrepency. The short version being that a lot of relievers are relievers not because they don't have the stamina to go 6 innings but because they can't pitch well enough to last 6 innings.