Cliff Lee

[guttle11]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I agree. But I'm sure the Reds would listen if a total package SS was available, not that one likely will be.



I know it wouldn't prevent us from getting a pen arm...but we'd have less chips to deal with after a Lee trade. And as for World Series contenders...I think we ARE one already. And trading away a promising young LEFT HANDED prospect like Wood only hurts our chances in furture years. I don't want a "one year and done" playoff run. Even if it gets us a world series ring. I want sustained success. That means not trading away lots of promising young prospects for a 2 month rental. If we had an abundance of left handed starting pitching prospects...sure (which is why I'm not that hesitant to deal Yonder...he's blocked and we have other candidates in the minors to step into his shoes too).



I think we should be able to get MORE than 2 months of lee for Wood & Yonder. But let's say we DO make that deal...what's the rotation for the last 2 months? Who gets sent down to the minors? Who gets sent to the pen? Who gets kicked OUT of the pen to make room for an ex-starter being added to the pen? How much of an improvement is Lee over say Volquez starting? 2 wins? 4 wins? 8 wins? Are 8 wins worth trading away Yonder and Wood? That's my line of thinking. Getting Lee doesn't assure us of a playoff spot or a WS berth and certainly not a title. I'm sure it'll improve our odds, but I think a solid pen arm would improve them MORE than Lee would.

Volquez is still an unknown, Leake has to be worked around to a point, Bailey is still hurt, Wood has one big league start to his name. The rotation is far from a finished product.

Trade for Lee and your rotation is:

Lee
Cueto
Arroyo
Harang
Leake/Volquez/Bailey


If they keep Leake's innings down, Volquez works out and Bailey comes back ready to go, that's a good problem to have. You sit Harang down and say "Aaron, you're getting older. You're not going to be here next year in all likelihood and you have no guarantees on the open market. Decent chance you end up on a crappy team for way less money. This is your chance to win a title. We need you in the pen more than the 4 man playoff rotation."Harang as the long man is an upgrade over Owings.

If they make the postseason and everyone is doing their jobs, someone gets left off the roster for each series. That's a call that would have to be made anyway, I'd rather have to make that call with Lee on the staff than without.

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I agree. But I'm sure the Reds would listen if a total package SS was available, not that one likely will be.



I know it wouldn't prevent us from getting a pen arm...but we'd have less chips to deal with after a Lee trade. And as for World Series contenders...I think we ARE one already. And trading away a promising young LEFT HANDED prospect like Wood only hurts our chances in furture years. I don't want a "one year and done" playoff run. Even if it gets us a world series ring. I want sustained success. That means not trading away lots of promising young prospects for a 2 month rental. If we had an abundance of left handed starting pitching prospects...sure (which is why I'm not that hesitant to deal Yonder...he's blocked and we have other candidates in the minors to step into his shoes too).



I think we should be able to get MORE than 2 months of lee for Wood & Yonder. But let's say we DO make that deal...what's the rotation for the last 2 months? Who gets sent down to the minors? Who gets sent to the pen? Who gets kicked OUT of the pen to make room for an ex-starter being added to the pen? How much of an improvement is Lee over say Volquez starting? 2 wins? 4 wins? 8 wins? Are 8 wins worth trading away Yonder and Wood? That's my line of thinking. Getting Lee doesn't assure us of a playoff spot or a WS berth and certainly not a title. I'm sure it'll improve our odds, but I think a solid pen arm would improve them MORE than Lee would.

The pen is starting to gel and settle down (knock on wood). If you have a chance to add one of the top 5 arms in the game, you do it. Alonso is going nowhere in this rotation, and while Wood is a solid pitcher, he's by no means a "can't miss" prospect IMO. I would trade both of them in a heartbeat for Cliff Lee.

As it stands now, if the Reds make the playoffs, who opens the postseason for them? Arroyo? Cueto? If you throw Lee into the mix, you're talking Lee going first, followed by Cueto, Arroyo, and whoever else we throw out there. That is DEPTH if I've ever seen it. If we add Lee, Leake would eventually get shut down IMO (the right call). I don't worry about making space for Cliff Lee. That's the easiest part of this whole thing. Trading for Lee would boost the reputation of this club times 100, even if it does result in Lee leaving at the end of the year.

If we don't make the trade, I won't be disappointed, for all of the reasons you've already mentioned. Nothing wrong with keeping so many good prospects if the M's ask for too much. However, if we can make this happen, he needs to do it.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by guttle11

Volquez is still an unknown, Leake has to be worked around to a point, Bailey is still hurt, Wood has one big league start to his name. The rotation is far from a finished product.

Trade for Lee and your rotation is:

Lee
Cueto
Arroyo
Harang
Leake/Volquez/Bailey


If they keep Leake's innings down, Volquez works out and Bailey comes back ready to go, that's a good problem to have. You sit Harang down and say "Aaron, you're getting older. You're not going to be here next year in all likelihood and you have no guarantees on the open market. Decent chance you end up on a crappy team for way less money. This is your chance to win a title. We need you in the pen more than the 4 man playoff rotation."Harang as the long man is an upgrade over Owings.

If they make the postseason and everyone is doing their jobs, someone gets left off the roster for each series. That's a call that would have to be made anyway, I'd rather have to make that call with Lee on the staff than without.

Or, Volquez is ready around the ASB and we have Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Harang. If Leake needs a day off (or Volquez) we've got Wood ready. Once Bailey comes back, Leake will be nearly done, so you've got Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, Harang, Bailey with Wood still in the wings (not to mention LeCure, Maloney, Chapman, etc). That rotation STILL matches up well with pretty much every NL rotation. I'm just not seeing the need.

And Harang to the pen...bad, BAD idea in my opinion.

[nate]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Or, Volquez is ready around the ASB and we have Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Harang. If Leake needs a day off (or Volquez) we've got Wood ready. Once Bailey comes back, Leake will be nearly done, so you've got Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo, Harang, Bailey with Wood still in the wings (not to mention LeCure, Maloney, Chapman, etc). That rotation STILL matches up well with pretty much every NL rotation.

It sure does match up...poorly.

I'm just not seeing the need.

And Harang to the pen...bad, BAD idea in my opinion.

Sure is a lot of unproven stuff based on the word "if" in there.

[Will M]

I would prefer obtaining Haren or Greinke (or even Oswalt if the Astros take Harang) in the right deal as opposed to getting Lee. The main reason is that either would be part of a nice 2011 rotation in addition to helping us in 2010. Going 'all in' on Lee is not a good strategy IMO.

I would hesitate to overpay for Lee due to the rental issue. I would not trade Wood as a part of a deal for Lee. Alonso & Mes? yes. But as Nemesis pointed out if Lee is gone after 2010 we may very well need Wood for 2011.

I would love love love it if the Reds could back up the truck & get both Haren & Drew. This is pretty much a complete fantasy as it would add a lot to the payroll.

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by Will M

I would prefer obtaining Haren or Greinke (or even Oswalt if the Astros take Harang) in the right deal as opposed to getting Lee. The main reason is that either would be part of a nice 2011 rotation in addition to helping us in 2010. Going 'all in' on Lee is not a good strategy IMO.

I would hesitate to overpay for Lee due to the rental issue. I would not trade Wood as a part of a deal for Lee. Alonso & Mes? yes. But as Nemesis pointed out if Lee is gone after 2010 we may very well need Wood for 2011.

I would love love love it if the Reds could back up the truck & get both Haren & Drew. This is pretty much a complete fantasy as it would add a lot to the payroll.

The Royals are not trading Greinke. If they do, they may as well fold the franchise.

And I would prefer a pitcher we get for more than one year also, however, due to the fact that Haren is cheap and controllable, we'd probably have to give up just as much, if not more, to get him.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by nate

It sure does match up...poorly.



Sure is a lot of unproven stuff based on the word "if" in there.

I would pay the rest of Harang's 2010 salary if someone would take on the buyout and flip us a reliever or a prospect or two. Not sure even that is possible, but there might be someone out there that isn't in the running for the top-tier arms, that might still see Aaron as an upgrade to the backend of their rotation.

Harang and his salary for a decent bullpen arm and his buy-out would make me very happy. I do want a steady veteran right-handed power bullpen arm before the deadline at the very least.

I'm still on the fence about Lee. I know his ability, but he's not re-signing so I wouldn't go more than two from among Alonso, Wood and Mesoraco. I think I'd lean more toward Haren or Grienke and a longer period of control.

If Bailey weren't on the DL, I'd probably draw the line at Alonzo, Heisey, Bailey and Maloney for Lee.

[REDblooded]

Originally Posted by nemesis

I keep hearing about the two draft picks we get for Lee, Two draft picks we get for Lee. And? So we get 2 guys who may or may not make it out of A+? Wood is a draft pick. A second rounder and in the Majors. Mez ia a high first rounder and the best offensive catcher in the Minors right now. Who knows what we get with those draft picks. It could be a Billy Hamilton or a Chris Gruler. Bird in hand is way more valuable than 2 in the bush. Mez and Wood give you 6 years of production and both will still be under 30 after those 6 years. This team can win the division without Lee this year and if you don't trade the wrong pieces for the next 3 or 4 years. I'd rather see a long tern run vs a one year wonder. Don't forget 1999 to 2000. Trading Tomko and Cameron was a part of the teams long term spiral. There were other factors, but keeping those two might have change this teams fortunes.

Also Texas had all those catchers yes. Yes none have lived up to the billing. But were not Texas. Mez isn't Ramirez, Teagarden or Saltamaccha, he's Devon. Let him be him. That be like saying he is going to be Mauer. You don't deal pieces like Mez, you collect them.

Isn't it a bit silly to say "bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" regarding prospects, when Cliff Lee is clearly a bird in the hand compared to ANY prospect you could bring out of the minors today?

[nemesis]

Still would bother me to no end to trade Wood for a Lee rental no matter how it's sliced.

Let me put it this way, would you trade Leake and Alonso for Lee?

Leake and Wood profile as similar pitchers. Wood throws harder, has 5 pitches and is LH. So doesn't that make him more valuable than a soft tossing righty with the same make up?

This board would go into meltdown status if that deal was made.

[REDblooded]

Originally Posted by nemesis

Still would bother me to no end to trade Wood for a Lee rental no matter how it's sliced.

Let me put it this way, would you trade Leake and Alonso for Lee?

Leake and Wood profile as similar pitchers. Wood throws harder, has 5 pitches and is LH. So doesn't that make him more valuable than a soft tossing righty with the same make up?

This board would go into meltdown status if that deal was made.

I would personally keep Wood out of any discussion... I would flip any call about Wood towards Maloney and add a third part LOOOONG before I would ever add Wood...

[kaldaniels]

Just an opinion. If Wood gave up 5 runs on Thursday, we wouldn't be hearing all this about not trading him. Its just one start folks.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Just an opinion. If Wood gave up 5 runs on Thursday, we wouldn't be hearing all this about not trading him. Its just one start folks.

Doubtful, because we still know what Wood profiles as. He has a fastball that works 90-92 MPH that can touch 94. He has a plus change up. He also throws a slider, cutter and curveball. He throws strikes. He isn't Sam Lecure who there are questions as to whether he is a #5 or a bullpen guy. Wood is a guy that profiles to be a #4 today and perhaps a #3 in the future.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Doubtful, because we still know what Wood profiles as. He has a fastball that works 90-92 MPH that can touch 94. He has a plus change up. He also throws a slider, cutter and curveball. He throws strikes. He isn't Sam Lecure who there are questions as to whether he is a #5 or a bullpen guy. Wood is a guy that profiles to be a #4 today and perhaps a #3 in the future.

I sense, and I could be wrong, that he is being overvalued as a prospect by the home fans. I like him and and I'd much rather trade Alonso/Mes, but if Wood is the key piece in the deal you don't break off talks on account of him. I think Wood could be a solid #2 myself, but odds are against it.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I sense, and I could be wrong, that he is being overvalued as a prospect by the home fans. I like him and and I'd much rather trade Alonso/Mes, but if Wood is the key piece in the deal you don't break off talks on account of him. I think Wood could be a solid #2 myself, but odds are against it.

Sure, but the odds aren't against him being a #4 and that makes him very valuable given how little he is getting paid for the next 4 years. As far as who I would rather trade of those three.... My list looks something like this:

Yonder Alonso


















One of the other two guys I would really rather not trade.

[Eric_the_Red]

So, many of you wouldn't trade Wood so we can have him as a potential TOR starter in 1-3 years and the Reds have who playing 2B, SS, 3B and LF?

They have the players to win now, so that is what the team should try to do. I'd much rather have a World Series title while wondering who is going to start in the rotation than to not have the title and be sitting on pitching prospects that may not pan out and less offense.