Cliff Lee

[lollipopcurve]

That doesn't beat Ramos/Hicks.

There's a lot of debate about whether the Twins are offering one or both.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

There's a lot of debate about whether the Twins are offering one or both.

And neither one is particularly close to helping the big league team. I think Wood could step into their rotation right now in Seattle. Francisco, Frazier and Heisey could all help this year as well, surely next. I think Alonso and Frisco should be a happy return for the Mariners by next year.

[nemesis]

If the Rays get involved, they will win the bidding war. You can rest assured that Upton and Hellickson are the first two pieces. Tampa is loaded top to bottom in their farm system. The ML Roster has some holes, primarily 1B, but overall, they theoretically could out prospect anyone.

At this point I am almost confounded how many people wanna give up so much for so little. Ill advised player moves can hurt a franchise for long periods of times. Signing Lee in the offseason after letting Arroyo and Harang go is not an option. Not if you want to keep Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez and Phillips long term. A 5 year $115 Mil deal for Lee would crush this franchises payroll. I would say in the next 5 years if the winning continues you could see it climb upwards of $90 to $95 Million. Next year it'll probably be around $75 to $80 Million. Do you want Lee's contract to be 30% of the teams payroll? Oswalt wouldn't be much better at $16.5 Million. Haren on the other hand would be around $12 and that $11 million difference covers both Cueto's and Bruce's Arbitration raises.

Cueto/Bruce/Haren/Wood >>>>>>>> Lee

[jojo]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

And neither one is particularly close to helping the big league team. I think Wood could step into their rotation right now in Seattle. Francisco, Frazier and Heisey could all help this year as well, surely next. I think Alonso and Frisco should be a happy return for the Mariners by next year.

Ramos would compete for and likely get half of the innings behind the plate next season for Seattle. Hicks is just to good to pass on if offered despite wanting someone who might make the 25 man as early as next season.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by jojo

Ramos would compete for and likely get half of the innings behind the plate next season for Seattle. Hicks is just to good to pass on if offered despite wanting someone who might make the 25 man as early as next season.

The catching situation is that bad in Seattle, I do know that. Ramos is a good prospect, but I'd be nervous about his AAA and MLB numbers so far if I was Seattle.

Perhaps Hanigan would interest Seattle? Great defense and consistent hitting right now in MLB.

[medford]

here's another thought, somewhere on this board, I read that someone figured a W-S birth was worth like $30 mil to a franchise in increased ticket sales from the playoffs, w/ that number sliding down based upon the number of rounds you play in, home game ticket sales, concession sales, etc... I don't think that number included increased ticket sales near the end of the season as interest peaked, and I doubt it included increased season ticket sales in the season(s) following that W-S birth.

anyhoo, if you figure that $30 mil is relatively true, and Walt thought the Reds could net an extra $20 mil at a minimum by acquiring Lee this season, plus additional ticket sales next season based upon the goodwill generated amongst fans (think of how much the season ticket base has fallen in recent seasons as fans/corporations get fed up trying to find people to use their tickets after opening day) perhpas Walt figure he can keep next years salary roughly where it is now, w/ a special $10mil extra spread out over the next 3 seasons to account for the increased revenues this season from the playoffs. Decline the options on Harang & Arroyo and you've got an easy $20 mil to pay Lee each of the next 3 seasons while having some money to extend Votto/Bruce to long term deals w/o killing your buget.

I think the acquisition of Lee could do a ton for this town, beyond just making the playoffs. The reds have lost a lot of their goodwill from the 70s and 90s over the last 10 years. Rightly or wrongly, people got fed up w/ Griffey's injuries, Dunn & Kearn's percieved lack of hustle or caring, the terrible retread pitches thrown out every season and the general lack of direction this team took on for much of the last half of Bowden's regime and the steady rebuild since DanO' took the reigns. If Lee could net them a pennant and a chance at the W-S, plus the increasing interest based upon the young talents that look to be around for a while (Bruce, Votto, Chapman, Cueto, Stubbs, etc...) there could be increased revenues for several years to come as this team becomes a consistant postseason threat.

so yeah, I wouldn't hesitate to give up Alonso or Francisco for Lee. I wouldn't like moving Wood, but I'd have to bite on that as well. Pretty much anybody in the minors is negotiable outside of Chapman, but that's mainly due to the money paid out to him in bonus.

[VR]

Nemesis.....Lee is a bonafide ace that gives the Reds a fighting chance in the playoffs. While I like appreciate Cueto/Arroyo/Volquez/ etal, none is close to what Cliff Lee is, especially in big games.

Outside of 4-5 players, there shouldn't be any untouchables in the minors for this guy.


Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Volquez, Cueto, Phillips, Hanigan, Heisey, Wood, Leake......the Reds aren't moving them, and they will provide the foundations for a competetive team the next 5 years. So, nothing is being mortgaged, because guys like Alonso and Mesaraco will do little or nothing to get this team over the hump that it needs to.

Do it, and do it now.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by jojo

Ramos would compete for and likely get half of the innings behind the plate next season for Seattle. Hicks is just to good to pass on if offered despite wanting someone who might make the 25 man as early as next season.

Hicks has a huge ceiling, but I am not wowed by his numbers so far.

Olney wrote another thing on ESPN and claimed that he thinks if the Reds offered up Mesoraco with the awesome season he has had (with the hope of the Reds singing Grandal and making him the catcher of the future) that Mesoraco plus another good prospect would get it done.

I'm starting to think that the Reds may not want to enter the Lee sweepstakes and should focus on Haren. I think the price is going to be exorbitant and I'm not sure that the difference in production is worth paying that big price for a few months of Lee.

Over their careers, Haren has been 29 WAR and Lee has been 26.8. There's a chance that Lee will move ahead of Haren by the end of the year, but if he does, it would be by a thin margin. If the year ended today, Haren's WAR would still be better than Lee's. Lee has also been in the league a year longer than Haren too, for what it is worth. Most importantly, Haren isn't a complete "rental." Haren would be in the rotation longer and let's face it...the Reds have to have a strong veteran penciled in. They cannot go the Volquez/Cueto/Chapman/Leake/Bailey or Wood route. They need an innings eater next year who is reliable.

I'm not sure what the DBacks would want for Haren, but I'm thinking the price is going to be less and the Reds will get more value in terms of production. Don't forget, Haren will be worth something too when he opts for FA.

[Eric_the_Red]

Have the Dbacks stated that Haren and/or Drew were available for trade? I think a lot of people are dead set against acquiring Lee instead of Haren/Drew, but we don't even know if the Dbacks are taking offers for them. Let's be careful not to blast one trade opportunity because of another possibly non-existent possibility thrown out there by fans.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Eric_the_Red

Have the Dbacks stated that Haren and/or Drew were available for trade? I think a lot of people are dead set against acquiring Lee instead of Haren/Drew, but we don't even know if the Dbacks are taking offers for them. Let's be careful not to blast one trade opportunity because of another possibly non-existent possibility thrown out there by fans.

Reportedly, Haren is available. I'm not sure about Drew though.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by nemesis

At this point I am almost confounded how many people wanna give up so much for so little. Ill advised player moves can hurt a franchise for long periods of times. Signing Lee in the offseason after letting Arroyo and Harang go is not an option. Not if you want to keep Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez and Phillips long term. A 5 year $115 Mil deal for Lee would crush this franchises payroll. I would say in the next 5 years if the winning continues you could see it climb upwards of $90 to $95 Million. Next year it'll probably be around $75 to $80 Million. Do you want Lee's contract to be 30% of the teams payroll? Oswalt wouldn't be much better at $16.5 Million. Haren on the other hand would be around $12 and that $11 million difference covers both Cueto's and Bruce's Arbitration raises.

Cueto/Bruce/Haren/Wood >>>>>>>> Lee

I'm perfectly happy if the Reds go out and acquire Dan Haren. Let's get that out of the way first. There wouldn't be any "but we could/should have had Lee instead ..." coming from this corner.

I don't know what the market value of Alonso and Francisco are, but from my vantage point, there isn't a whole lot to like about those guys right now and what they can provide the Reds in terms of direct production. Votto's not moving, and Alonso isn't impressing anybody in the outfield. His inability to do anything except play first base or DH has grossly reduced his value to the Reds in a direct way. The best way for the organization to get value out of Alonso is to flip him for a piece that can help.

This doesn't even mention the fact that Alonso just flat out hasn't hit. I know he's recovering from an injury, but his plate discipline is going backwards in AAA, he can't find first base and his power has disappointed. His PA/BB ratio this year in Louisville is 21.36, and that's flat awful. I don't know what's going on, but if that PA/BB doesn't improve, his trade value will quickly begin eroding.

Juan Francisco, well, let's just say that I'd drive him to Seattle (or Arizona or somewhere else) myself if it meant flipping him to get something of value. He's walked once every 26 PAs in his minor league career. There's barely been any plate discipline development throughout his entire minor league career. He doesn't know the difference between balls and strikes, and he can't find first base. Power quickly disappears on the big league level when guys are unable to get on base. A low OBP puts a low cap on SLG; he has raw power, but it's not going to show up in his SLG without an ability to get on base adequately. Francisco is the prime example of a lottery ticket player, and scratches and sniffs are not the type of guys this organization should depend on. Flip him for known production, and let some other organization deal with his on-base issues.

I like Travis Wood, and I'd rather not see the Reds deal him. Same with Chris Heisey. Mesoraco, I'm lukewarm on. I'm not as high on him as I am with Wood or Heisey, but I like him much better than Francisco. Of course, moving him now may enable the Reds to sell high and take advantage of Mesoraco's hot start. This could save another prospect in any potential package, and that has value. If Alonso wasn't squarely blocked by the team's best player, then I could see the argument to give him more development time internally. But he's blocked, and he's not developing. Yet if he still has solid trade value on the open market, then now is as good a time as any to flip him for a piece to help the playoff push.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Buster Olney ranks the Twins the favorite followed by the Reds to land Lee.. For what it's worth.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by jojo

That doesn't beat Ramos/Hicks.

I bet it would. Lets call a spade a spade.... Wilson Ramos is a ton of hype and not much else. He has never hit well at any level, but merely held his own. This year in AAA he is sitting at .204/.240/.313. Aaron Hicks on the flip side is a good prospect who is producing. He is at .263/.373/.408 with good defense and projection still there. The problem is, he is in Low A.

A package of Alonso, Wood and Puckett absolutely beats that deal every day of the week. If it doesn't, then someone really needs to sit down and re-evaluate it.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by membengal

I am not a "stats guy", but I sure don't mind folks that are. I have not read that person's methodology, nor do I offer any comment on it.

I just thought I would put it out there.

I do note this, +2 in wins is NOT insignificant, as noted above, it improves, by that formulation, the Reds' chance of winning the division by 9% and making the playoffs by 11%.

Oh yes, I realize that.. you were just passing it along.
I didn't read the full article. I know sometimes they talk about "wins" as in a "win" is an improvement of 10 runs in the team's run differential.
I'm talking about actual wins though, I think it would be more than two wins.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Oh yes, I realize that.. you were just passing it along.
I didn't read the full article. I know sometimes they talk about "wins" as in a "win" is an improvement of 10 runs in the team's run differential.
I'm talking about actual wins though, I think it would be more than two wins.

Actual wins in what sense? The ones that go on a pitchers record or the ones that go on the teams record? The ones that go on an individual's record aren't all that important to the discussion.