Cliff Lee

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I'm not sure what the DBacks would want for Haren, but I'm thinking the price is going to be less and the Reds will get more value in terms of production. Don't forget, Haren will be worth something too when he opts for FA.

Since you get 2.5 years of Haren vs. .5 years of Lee, I assume that Haren would cost more to obtain than Lee. He certainly should.

If that is not the case, turn your focus to Haren. And even if it is the case.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Actual wins in what sense? The ones that go on a pitchers record or the ones that go on the teams record? The ones that go on an individual's record aren't all that important to the discussion.

Team wins.

The team would win more than games if Lee started 18, as opposed to Homer starting 18 games, in my opinion, of course.

Naturally, Lee would have a better W-L record than Homer (or whoever Lee replaced) as well.

Heck, if Harang is out for a prolonged period of time, then it makes even more sense to make this trade.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Team wins.

The team would win more than games if Lee started 18, as opposed to Homer starting 18 games, in my opinion, of course.

Naturally, Lee would have a better W-L record than Homer (or whoever Lee replaced) as well.

Heck, if Harang is out for a prolonged period of time, then it makes even more sense to make this trade.

While clearly Lee>Bailey or anyone else on our staff, I am not sure Lee adds more than 2-3 wins over any of them to the teams total. Would still go after him though. Just going to do all that I can to package the deal around guys not named Wood and Mesoraco. Frazier, Alonso, Francisco, Maloney, Klinker, Boxberger..... all fair game (not in the same trade of course).

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Eric_the_Red

Have the Dbacks stated that Haren and/or Drew were available for trade? I think a lot of people are dead set against acquiring Lee instead of Haren/Drew, but we don't even know if the Dbacks are taking offers for them. Let's be careful not to blast one trade opportunity because of another possibly non-existent possibility thrown out there by fans.

But its so easy to blast a trade based on imaginary facts. Just think what Zach Stewart could have gotten us!

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While clearly Lee>Bailey or anyone else on our staff, I am not sure Lee adds more than 2-3 wins over any of them to the teams total. Would still go after him though. Just going to do all that I can to package the deal around guys not named Wood and Mesoraco. Frazier, Alonso, Francisco, Maloney, Klinker, Boxberger..... all fair game (not in the same trade of course).

I agree. Lee's excellent of course, but seriously, how many additional wins are we talking here? 4 wins is not worth losing some serious talent over the long haul. And that long term vision is what needs to be kept in the picture.

[savafan]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I've seen midseason deal after midsesason deal blow up in the face of the Cincinnati Reds. I honestly cannot remember the last time the team added a player who did anything remotely close to what the team needed / wanted them to do. It seems like these things always backfire for this franchise.

Am I the only one who expects Lee, if he were to come to Cincinnati, to immediately become ineffective and post an over-4.00 ERA the rest of the way? It just seems that's how this story would end.

June 9, 1990: Glenn Braggs traded by the Milwaukee Brewers with Billy Bates to the Cincinnati Reds for Ron Robinson and Bob Sebra.

I think that one worked out well in our favor. Not earth shattering, but it was a difference maker.

[RedsManRick]

I think in conversations like this, people grossly underestimate the possibility that you get ZERO from a prospect. There is a BIG amount of uncertainty in the eventual production from those guys. Sure, the mean expected production is greater than that which Lee would provide, but strength loves certainty, weakness loves risk. 88 win teams are exactly the type who should be picking up a few wins in trade during the season.

Cyclone nailed a big point here. Value is relative. Alonso in particular is not likely to ever produce value on the field for the Reds. His value to the Reds is tied up in his trade value. I'm often the first one to bring up theoretical notions of value, but at some point that value has to be recognized. Now is the time to do convert some of that potential value in to realized value at a time when that value can be leveraged to the hilt.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While clearly Lee>Bailey or anyone else on our staff, I am not sure Lee adds more than 2-3 wins over any of them to the teams total. Would still go after him though. Just going to do all that I can to package the deal around guys not named Wood and Mesoraco. Frazier, Alonso, Francisco, Maloney, Klinker, Boxberger..... all fair game (not in the same trade of course).

Interesting..

But here's what I see Homer has given us this year:
1-2 5.51 ERA 1.48 WHIP

LeCure was 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.7 WHIP

Maloney and Wood may be better (Wood especially) but I think we are looking at average at best over the rest of the season. With Harang out, that means two of the four names listed above are going to get significant playing time until Volquez comes back (another wild card).

I could maybe see the argument that Wood is the real deal, but Lee is one of the best pitchers in the game..

Let's say the best kid goes 9-9 over 18 starts. That's pretty realistic. Don't you think Lee could do better than 11-7? I know W-L isn't the greatest stat in the world, but I really think Lee would win more than 2-3 games with this team. The alternatives just aren't that good (or are at least much more unknown, in the case of Volquez).

I also think that the NL Central race is going to be very close. 2-3 more wins might be the difference in making the playoffs and not making it.

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I agree. Lee's excellent of course, but seriously, how many additional wins are we talking here? 4 wins is not worth losing some serious talent over the long haul. And that long term vision is what needs to be kept in the picture.

Our long-term vision is at 15 years and counting.

The young core of this team is Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Stubbs, Cueto Leake, Bailey, Chapman. None of them would be touched in any of these proposed deals for Cliff Lee. Alonso is a decent positional prospect blocked at the only position he can play. Heisey looks like he has the potential to be a soild major leaguer, but certainly not a star. Francisco? Who knows? And Wood is a pitching prospect -- and you know what they say about pitching prospects.

Look, the object of the game is to win the World Series. That's why these guys play the game and why guys like Walt do the jobs they do. Is there a chance that the Reds could trade for Cliff Lee and miss the playoffs? Of course. There's a chance they could trade for him, make the playoffs, but miss out on the World Series. There are no guarantees. But you have to go for it. You can't choose the year -- the year chooses you.

I'm a Celtics fan. I remember when they traded Al Jefferson for Kevin Garnett -- I wasn't happy. I felt like we were trading 10 years of a budding star big man for a three-year window of unlikely championship aspirations. Well, one title and one Finals appearance later, I can happily admit I was wrong. Sure, KG is on his last legs and the window appears to be closing -- but they won the title. That's what it's all about.

Honestly, I can't believe there's this much resistance to the prospect of trading for Lee. Because of Yonder Alonso and Travis Wood???? Really?

[savafan]

Excellent points REDREAD!

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Since you get 2.5 years of Haren vs. .5 years of Lee, I assume that Haren would cost more to obtain than Lee. He certainly should.

If that is not the case, turn your focus to Haren. And even if it is the case.

I do think in the case of Haren, salary relief will help the DBacks. I also think a team like the Dbacks would be willing to go higher on the quantity of prospects compromising quality some than the M's would for Lee. I don't know that for certain, but just speculation.

[savafan]

Dan Haren has an ERA of 4.38, and has allowed 19 homers while striking out 119 batters this year.

Cliff Lee on the other hand has an ERA of 2.34, and has allowed 5 homers while striking out 89 batters.

I know which one I'd rather have, and it's not even close. I'll take the pitcher who gives up 2 less runs per game.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I do think in the case of Haren, salary relief will help the DBacks. I also think a team like the Dbacks would be willing to go higher on the quantity of prospects compromising quality some than the M's would for Lee. I don't know that for certain, but just speculation.

Haren brought Oakland some nice prospects, they'd want a few themselves:

December 14, 2007: Traded by the Oakland Athletics with Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Chris Carter (minors), Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith.

Perhaps Alonso's plate discipline would appeal to the free swinging team they have now.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I agree. Lee's excellent of course, but seriously, how many additional wins are we talking here? 4 wins is not worth losing some serious talent over the long haul. And that long term vision is what needs to be kept in the picture.

Winning a pennant, making the playoffs, and/or possibly winning the World Series is what needs to be kept in the picture too.

Lee not only can get you more wins (for the team) than the fifth starter candidates in Cincinnati, but he's also able to keep the pen rested, meaning they're much more likely to be better in other games. Not only that, those fifth starter candidates go from fifth starters to relievers. This typically makes a picher's stuff much, much better and more reliable, as he's able to stick with fewer pitches.

Lee by himself makes much of the pitching staff better pretty much by himself.

[OnBaseMachine]

From Jon Morosi:

I have spoken with two scouts who say Juan Francisco, not Yonder Alonso, would be the #Reds' best bat to offer for #CliffLee. #Mariners

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi

I'd give up both Alonso and Francisco in a deal for Cliff Lee...