Juan Francisco

[GOYA]

Entire Season	AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS

Month April	.115	61	4	7	2	1	1	3	2	21      .141	.230	.370

Month May	.531	32	10	17	5	1	3	16	3	2	.571	1.031	1.603

Month June	.292	65	7	19	8	0	1	5	2	15	.309	.462	.770

Month July	.364	33	4	12	1	1	3	5	2	6	.417	.727	1.144

Since April :

.369/.423/.669 - 1.092

3.3 K/BB ratio

48% of his hits are for extra bases

[fearofpopvol1]

191 ABs, 44 Ks and 9 BB.

He has been getting on base more, but that's mostly because he's been hitting so well. He's still striking out a lot and not walking all that much.

I just don't see any way he could get away with the poor walk rate in the majors while striking out at a near 25% clip. I think his OBP in the majors would have a strong chance of dipping below .300.

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

191 ABs, 44 Ks and 9 BB.

He has been getting on base more, but that's mostly because he's been hitting so well. ...

If only he could trade some of those hits for walks ...

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

If only he could trade some of those hits for walks ...

That would keep his OBP the same and decrease the slugging.

But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.

[GIDP]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

That would keep his OBP the same and decrease the slugging.

But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.

If he hit .330/.360/.530 and had a respectable k/BB ratio it would be taken just as serious as anyone.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

But you're right--if he were more like a .250/.320/.480 hitter, he'd be taken a lot more seriously.

Yeah, because most posters on this board love hitters with low OBP's.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BRM

Yeah, because most posters on this board love hitters with low OBP's.

The difference is, it would show that he had some semblance of reaching first base without it being via a hit. Guys who only reach base via the hit either suck, or strike out about 8% of the time they step to the plate and hit .300. Francisco isn't going to strike out that little, so he isn't going to hit .300, so he has to start walking more.

[RedsManRick]

I see Fransisco and just think "LH Marcus Thames". They're even built the same way. I think Fransisco will have a decent major league career, in that he'll be in the league for a while, but his best case scenario is Ruben Sierra.

[mdccclxix]

I think Juan can get things straightened out for a Sept 2011 call up for good. He'll still be just 24.

[GOYA]

I find it very strange that a guy hitting .369/.423/.669 over his last 3 months would need to straighten anything out. The man can hit. Seriously hit. He's done it consistently over many levels. The perceived problem with lack of walks is all about putting him in a mold that he just doesn't fit.

And most importantly, he still seems to be improving.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by GOYA

I find it very strange that a guy hitting .369/.423/.669 over his last 3 months would need to straighten anything out. The man can hit. Seriously hit. He's done it consistently over many levels. The perceived problem with lack of walks is all about putting him in a mold that he just doesn't fit.

And most importantly, he still seems to be improving.

Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).

I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.

[aubashbrother]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).

I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.

even if he was batting 7th or 8th that wouldnt offset the low obp ?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by aubashbrother

even if he was batting 7th or 8th that wouldnt offset the low obp ?

Offset it in which way? Make it less of an issue? Sure, slightly. But he would still be an out machine with no margin for bad 'luck'.

[redsfandan]

I wonder if Alonso/Francisco could've landed Lee. Probably not but who knows...

[GIDP]

I think Seattle really likes Smoak a lot. I'm not sure they would have taken any other offers.