Drew Stubbs

[membengal]

Originally Posted by TRF

I have a theory about that I'm calling a "conflict of instinct". This is just a guess mind you.

I think Stubbs baseball instincts, his natural muscle memory tend toward a power/speed game. I think his body wants to drive the ball. His speed is actually secondary to his true offensive game.

As a leadoff hitter he has been told/instructed to be more of a slap hitter. His focus was trying to reach base that way, hit that way. It's alien to him. instead of reaching base he was making outs.

In the 7th spot he's being told to hit in a way his instincts agree with.

And that seems to be working. He's getting on base more, and he's hitting for power.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think you can remove the human element here.

Your ideas and observations on this continue to intrigue me. I would very much like to know if you have a newsletter to which I can subscribe...

[TRF]

Originally Posted by membengal

Your ideas and observations on this continue to intrigue me. I would very much like to know if you have a newsletter to which I can subscribe...

HA!

I'm just a dumb web developer.

[membengal]

You should branch out. Because your ideas seem spot on to me. And I am beyond delighted at what Stubbs has turned in. Huge development for this club.

[TRF]

Honestly, indirectly, woy has pointed me in this direction. A lot of his posts take the human element into account. I 'm curious as to why some players with equal body types don't show similar skills/production. Like Jeter and Janish for example. Physically very similar but that's about it.

Why did a simple shift in the lineup create such a drastic change for the Reds. As much as we've talked about Stubbs in the 7th spot, the same can be said about BP as a 1 or 2 hitter. it's been a remarkable change. I gotta say the intangibles of the game are really interesting.

[RedsManRick]

I'm not sure that it's as much about instincts as it is simply matching up expected behavior with skill set. Stubbs is and probably always will be a poor contact hitter. Batting leadoff, he was encouraged to both see pitches for the sake of the guys behind him and to put the ball in play. This put him behind in the count and then encouraged him to swing -- a death sentence for a guy with contact problems. Batting lower in the order, he's freed up to simply find a pitch he can hit and put wood on it.

Phillips, by contrast, is a decent contact hitter. But batting cleanup, he wasn't as willing to shorten up his stroke and drive the ball where it was pitched. Cleaning up fed in to a power-hitter mentality that really didn't suit his skill set. I think batting at the top of the lineup has forced in to play more to his actual strengths as a hitter.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm not sure that it's as much about instincts as it is simply matching up expected behavior with skill set. Stubbs is and probably always will be a poor contact hitter. Batting leadoff, he was encouraged to both see pitches for the sake of the guys behind him and to put the ball in play. This put him behind in the count and then encouraged him to swing -- a death sentence for a guy with contact problems. Batting lower in the order, he's freed up to simply find a pitch he can hit and put wood on it.

Phillips, by contrast, is a decent contact hitter. But batting cleanup, he wasn't as willing to shorten up his stroke and drive the ball where it was pitched. Cleaning up fed in to a power-hitter mentality that really didn't suit his skill set. I think batting at the top of the lineup has forced in to play more to his actual strengths as a hitter.

semantics. we could call it ookey dookey if we wanted. But you basically said the same thing I did. I chose insticnts because its more nebulous. Stubbs body wants him to hit a certain way. IS he athlete enough to hit differently? Sure, but he's fighting what comes naturally. Instinct.

You want a good comp for Stubbs? this'll blow everyones mind, but try Adam Dunn. He's probably 80% Adam Dunn potentially in power. Similar contact. Dunn will BB 90+ time for you, Stubbs probably 70+. Power. Dunn has perennial 40 HR power. Stubbs is looking like he COULD be a 30 HR guy. The difference is speed, which Stubbs is NOT taking full advantage of. Oh, he's got the SB's, but 9 doubles? 9? That's an anomaly. He should be in the high teens right now. I think that will correct itself.

If Adam Dunn were all that he is right now WITH Stubbs speed, he'd be the best player in the game. period. If Stubbs can continue to improve his power and contact he's easily the best CF in baseball, and could be for the next 7-8 years too.

[fearofpopvol1]

I still think the Mike Cameron comp for Stubbs is a good one.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by TRF

I have a theory about that I'm calling a "conflict of instinct". This is just a guess mind you.

I think Stubbs baseball instincts, his natural muscle memory tend toward a power/speed game. I think his body wants to drive the ball. His speed is actually secondary to his true offensive game.

As a leadoff hitter he has been told/instructed to be more of a slap hitter. His focus was trying to reach base that way, hit that way. It's alien to him. instead of reaching base he was making outs.

In the 7th spot he's being told to hit in a way his instincts agree with.

And that seems to be working. He's getting on base more, and he's hitting for power.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think you can remove the human element here.

I disagree with your theory and have one of my own. The 1st spot in the order requires a guy to take pitches even inside the zone. Stubbs ability to swing and miss is further limited in that spot if he is doing his job and taking pitches for others to gauge (not to mention pitchers aren't as likely to make mental errors to the guy hitting in front of the best hitters on the team). Bottom line is he will never be a good leadoff hitter until he fixes (if even possible) his contact issues. In the 7 hole he simply has more chances to make contact.

Or what RMR said only I didn't read that far ahead.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I disagree with your theory and have one of my own. The 1st spot in the order requires a guy to take pitches even inside the zone. Stubbs ability to swing and miss is further limited in that spot if he is doing his job and taking pitches for others to gauge (not to mention pitchers aren't as likely to make mental errors to the guy hitting in front of the best hitters on the team). Bottom line is he will never be a good leadoff hitter until he fixes (if even possible) his contact issues. In the 7 hole he simply has more chances to make contact.

Or what RMR said only I didn't read that far ahead.

How is that in anyway disagreeing? Stubbs is a certain type of hitter. that type isn't conducive to leading off. For whatever reason, whether its philosophy, experience or natural instinct. He is what he is, but leadoff is a round hole and he's a square peg.

Also I think his coaches may have had a preconceived notion of the type of hitter leadoff is further limiting his progress. Plain and simple, they did a very good job of nearly ruining him. A a #7 hitter he has two luxuries, 1 pitchers can attempt to pitch around him to get to the "weaker" #8 and 9 hitters. IMO pitching around a guy can lead to mistake pitches, forcing the pitcher to throw a strike, or walking him. All good things. 2 it may take self perceived pressure off of him in that he may think the job has gotten done ahead of him.

Again, these are just guesses, it's not like i know the guy,

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by TRF

How is that in anyway disagreeing? Stubbs is a certain type of hitter. that type isn't conducive to leading off. For whatever reason, whether its philosophy, experience or natural instinct. He is what he is, but leadoff is a round hole and he's a square peg.

Not disagreeing with the what (he's not a leadoff hitter) but the why (not so much about philosophical approach but more about a lack of skill) either way we agree about the end result.

He could improve but I can't quite figure out what his issues are. Could be multiple issues (poor bat control, doesn't see the ball as well as the average hitter, bat speed). I know the more movement the more inept he becomes. I'd like to see his pitch F/X data to see what he is hitting and what he struggles with that would be more telling as to where to start identifying his issues. If he could improve his contact rate he could hit leadoff. I just hope he doesn't go backwards which is still within the realm of possibility, I can live with a .750 OPS from him.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by TRF

semantics.

I'm not so sure. I'd say that instincts (natural approach), skills, and the demands of the spot in the order all come in to play. Instincts and skills are not the same thing in my book.

Ideally, these things all align, bu sometimes they don't. Just look at Taveras' seeming unwillingness to beat the ball in the to the ground. He had the skills to leadoff if he used an approach which maximized those skills. But his instincts were to try and muscle up.

I think Phillips' instincts are suited for the 4th or 5th spot. He wants to be a HR hitter. He wants to turn on everything and yank it out of the yard. But skills aren't - he's not Jonny Gomes. As a result, we saw him roll-over on the ball to 2B and hit a ton of pop ups. I just don't think Phillips' skills and instincts are completely aligned.

I think agree on Stubbs quite a bit. Stubbs is similar to Dunn in instincts and a lesser approximation in skills -- power & discipline. But with a bit less power and a bit less discipline, Stubbs contact issues could be an issue. He makes up for it in terms of base hits through his infield singles.

[Rojo]

Good thought TRF. I think a lot of players are stunted from shoe-horning them into a prescribed role. Paul O'Neil was a famous case. The Reds wanted a 30+ homer guy and turns out he was something else entirely valuable.

Runs scored is a good, if vanilla, metric for Stubbs. If he scores 95 times from the 7 hole then you can excuse a less-than-stellar OPS.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm not so sure. I'd say that instincts (natural approach), skills, and the demands of the spot in the order all come in to play. Instincts and skills are not the same thing in my book.

Ideally, these things all align, bu sometimes they don't. Just look at Taveras' seeming unwillingness to beat the ball in the to the ground. He had the skills to leadoff if he used an approach which maximized those skills. But his instincts were to try and muscle up.

I think Phillips' instincts are suited for the 4th or 5th spot. He wants to be a HR hitter. He wants to turn on everything and yank it out of the yard. But skills aren't - he's not Jonny Gomes. As a result, we saw him roll-over on the ball to 2B and hit a ton of pop ups. I just don't think Phillips' skills and instincts are completely aligned.

I think agree on Stubbs quite a bit. Stubbs is similar to Dunn in instincts and a lesser approximation in skills -- power & discipline. But with a bit less power and a bit less discipline, Stubbs contact issues could be an issue. He makes up for it in terms of base hits through his infield singles.

this may be splitting hairs even more, but instincts can be trumped by desire. I think BP is a perfect example. he WANTS to be the 40 HR guy, but his skillset while close at times isn't suited to it. so intincts could eventually become experience+instruction=muscle memory. remember how little time a player has to react to the pitch. for a younger player like Stubbs his instincts fight the instruction, because what he's being taught conflicts with what he "knows".

It's just a guess, but it could explain a little why a player's age prime years start at 27. enough experience and instruction combine to become muscle memory.

[gonelong]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Good thought TRF. I think a lot of players are stunted from shoe-horning them into a prescribed role. Paul O'Neil was a famous case. The Reds wanted a 30+ homer guy and turns out he was something else entirely valuable.

I thought that sounded familar, agreed.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=413

The Reds are always trying to make their strippers into Sunday school teachers and trying to convince their Sunday school teachers to wear 5" heals and a mini-skirt to church. It's no wonder they are constantly frustrated at the outcome.

GL

[TRF]

[QUOTE=gonelong;2166148][QUOTE=Rojo;2164835]Good thought TRF. I think a lot of players are stunted from shoe-horning them into a prescribed role. Paul O'Neil was a famous case. The Reds wanted a 30+ homer guy and turns out he was something else entirely valuable.

I thought that sounded familar, agreed.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=413



GL

gl, i may not agree with you completely on Dunn, but that was a fantastic analogy.