Bronson: should he be signed to a long term contract?

[Cooper]

Looking at the Bronson's stats and how he appears to be getting by on some guile and luck.

His k's per 9 innings are really low (4.3) and his BABIP is at .236. Imho, you don't sign a guy with these kinds of ratios to a long term contract. These are the kind of ratios involved with taking a flyer on a guy who you hope to be your 5th starter. A player with these kind of ratios is a 1 year deal.

Am i missing something here? Surely the brass doesn't sign this guy, correct? He's living on borrowed time and the clock's ticking fast....right?

[bucksfan2]

I was thinking about Bronson last night and began to worry about him. He is becoming more and more a junk ball pitcher. When he was first with the Reds he was striking out batters and his fast ball sat in the low 90's. Now he is relying on his curve and off speed stuff more than ever. I wonder if his 88ish fastball will keep losing velocity and he will need to rely on savvy rather than stuff.

[The Voice of IH]

I do not think that they should sign him long term at all. remember that Chapman will be waiting in the wings next year. So I say the Reds only should pick up the option if they believe Chapman needs more time. but If Chapman is ready, then the rotation of the feature is set.

[WMR]

I wouldn't want to commit to anything long-term with Bronson.


Two years max.

[mdccclxix]

I think he's a decent option for any rotation and have no issue with him getting picked up next year or even beyond. He's a mental pitcher, so his raw stuff isn't as important as for others. I think Arroyo could live up to a contract taking him into his 37-38 years, just not for 12 million. He may ask for 8-12, we'll see.

I'd feel much better going into next year with Arroyo than without, especially since there's always teams looking at getting him when the Reds are down.

[kaldaniels]

This thread could get ugly but I want him on the Reds until he shows me that he is toast. I really think he has the potential for a Jamie Moyer like career to some extent.

[PuffyPig]

We can exercise our option if he finishes as well as he has pitched this year.

Then make a discision next year.

It's premature to consider a longer term contract at this stage IMO.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

We can exercise our option if he finishes as well as he has pitched this year.

Then make a discision next year.

It's premature to consider a longer term contract at this stage IMO.

I agree completely.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

We can exercise our option if he finishes as well as he has pitched this year.

Then make a discision next year.

It's premature to consider a longer term contract at this stage IMO.

Why is it premature to consider it? I think it's premature to offer one but decisions have to be made for next season and they aren't all made after the last game of the season.

[cumberlandreds]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I agree completely.

Ditto from me also. If he has a spectatucular year next then you can think about it. Otherwise there is no need of even considering an LTC until then.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I don't think it's a definite "no" yet, but I'll be watching him close the last two months to see where he ends up. This is the time of year in the past he's really turned it on. I mean, if he ends up with 17 wins and 6 losses..... maybe worth thinking about another 3 years. I don't know that I'd go any longer then that and after he's thrown back out in the market he might realize we're about as fair as anyone out there....

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

We can exercise our option if he finishes as well as he has pitched this year.

Then make a discision next year.

It's premature to consider a longer term contract at this stage IMO.

I agree 100%. I think we can be pretty sure that Bronson Arroyo isn't going to improve from here on out. With the Reds' pitching depth, he probably won't be an upgrade over anyone in the rotation beyond next year anyway.

[REDREAD]

If the Reds try to extend him into 2012 or 2013 now (or this offseason), they probably have a better shot at getting it done. There's a number of reasons.

1. The Reds are coming off the best season since Bronson arrived. They are finally winning.

2. The Reds in essence are offering him a 2-3 year deal.. Next year, it's a 1-2 year deal.

3. It shows the Reds want Bronson, respect him, etc.. Don't underestimate the human element. That's one reason I thought it was a good idea for Wayne to extend Bronson when he did, despite the fact that he didn't have to.

Sure, the "safe" way could be to just pick up Bronson's option and then hope to just sign him year to year after that. That sounds good in theory, but in reality, Bronson might feel slighted. Bronson is also going to know he will have multiyear options after 2011.

So I think it's a good idea to start talking to Bronson after the season ends about an extension. I'm willing to take the risk.. there's no way to build a pitching staff without taking some risk.. I'm less worried about velocity in Bronson.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

With the Reds' pitching depth, he [Bronson] probably won't be an upgrade over anyone in the rotation beyond next year anyway.

Assuming Harang is let go (which is highly likely), I disagree.

That leaves you with
Leake, Wood, Ceuto, Volquez, Bailey/Chapman.

I am willing to bet that at least one of those young pitchers underperforms Arroyo.. In fact, I am sure Bronson will be better than Leake next year.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Chip R

Why is it premature to consider it? I think it's premature to offer one but decisions have to be made for next season and they aren't all made after the last game of the season.

We are talking about the 2012 season and beyond.

I think how Arroyo pitches the rest of this season will determine whether we exercise our option on him for 2011.

How he pitches in 2011 will determine whether we offer him a contract for 2012.

Since we don't know how he will finish out the year, or how well he will pitch in 2011 (assuming we exercise our option), I think it very premature as the majority of the data that will be evaluated in making the decision is unknown at this time.

And if it's premature to offer one, why spend much time considering it?

I think we may well be talking about the same thing here anyway.