AAA Age Question

[LeDoux]

I really enjoy reading the minor league updates and analysis in this forum. It has added more depth to the enjoyment of the game. I had a newbie question about the age of players in the farm system. At what age is player expected to play at the big ballclub before they are considered to have reached their full potential? Or in other words, which players on the current squad would be dropped or demoted if they did not make the team by 2012? I'm sure there is some varience player to player, but is there a rule of thumb?

[cinreds21]

Try and explain the question a bit more please. I don't follow but I'd love to answer.

[davereds24]

I'm sure there are people on here who have more knowledge than myself but I'll give you my answer. Age isn't very important to AAA, there are many guys who make a career out of it. Anything under AAA you don't want to see someone at the same level for more than 2-3 years. If they can't advance they probably don't have it. Obviously there are exceptions. You don't want a whole AAA team that's been there for 5+ years but it's not uncommon to have several guys like that. With all the turnover in minor league baseball it's nice to have a couple guys like that around. Nobody is going to be considered too old for AAA and get demoted to AA they will be released.

[LeDoux]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

Try and explain the question a bit more please. I don't follow but I'd love to answer.

Fair enough. I was trying to phrase my question in a way that did not discount the talent at the AAA level. I guess I just muddled it. I am asking at what age range a ballclub gives up on a AAA prospect.

[LeDoux]

Originally Posted by davereds24

I'm sure there are people on here who have more knowledge than myself but I'll give you my answer. Age isn't very important to AAA, there are many guys who make a career out of it. Anything under AAA you don't want to see someone at the same level for more than 2-3 years. If they can't advance they probably don't have it. Obviously there are exceptions. You don't want a whole AAA team that's been there for 5+ years but it's not uncommon to have several guys like that. With all the turnover in minor league baseball it's nice to have a couple guys like that around. Nobody is going to be considered too old for AAA and get demoted to AA they will be released.

Thanks for the reply.

Would it be accurate to say that there are two types of players in AAA:
40 man roster: various ages, primary backup for injury
Other: young prospects in the proving grounds?

or is this a gross oversimplication?

[cinreds21]

Originally Posted by LeDoux

Thanks for the reply.

Would it be accurate to say that there are two types of players in AAA:
40 man roster: various ages, primary backup for injury
Other: young prospects in the proving grounds?

or is this a gross oversimplication?

Almost.

For some teams, Triple-A is more of a holding cell for guys who have had time in the bigs, such as Corky Miller, and are insurance incase of injuries. Some guys (like Cozart) have done their work in Double-A and is just ready for the next level. It varies from team to team. I know the Marlins keep a big majority of their prospects in Double-A and call them up straight from there and have very few big prospects in Triple-A. Hardly ever does a "prospect' with the Marlins go to Triple-A before being called up, it's usually once you're in Double-A, you're almost ready. Does that help?

[mdccclxix]

Personally, I think by 25 a legit prospect should be ready to contribute in MLB and pretty much avoid AAA from then on. That's my rule of thumb, which I've only stolen from the sense I get from publications and posters.

Stars fade fast after 25 because it indicates they lack something to contribute throughout their prime years. If they're good enough, you'd like them to be by 25 so they can give you their best years blended with experience.

Often times a player will hatch later than 25 (Nelson Cruz), but in general it's a good number to look at. There's no reason to cut a guy based on age if he's still helping the club in AAA though.

If you're looking for solid progress, 23 years old as a AAA player is decent, with a September call up to boot. Think Joey Votto or Francisco.

[gedred69]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

Almost.

For some teams, Triple-A is more of a holding cell for guys who have had time in the bigs, such as Corky Miller, and are insurance incase of injuries. Some guys (like Cozart) have done their work in Double-A and is just ready for the next level. It varies from team to team. I know the Marlins keep a big majority of their prospects in Double-A and call them up straight from there and have very few big prospects in Triple-A. Hardly ever does a "prospect' with the Marlins go to Triple-A before being called up, it's usually once you're in Double-A, you're almost ready. Does that help?

This pretty much how I see it, and a friend who spent 3 years in various levels of the Minors elsewhere described his experience similarly. He says guys who are successful at AA got what it takes talent-wise, then it's all about opportunity, and having your head in the right place.

[LeDoux]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

Almost.

For some teams, Triple-A is more of a holding cell for guys who have had time in the bigs, such as Corky Miller, and are insurance incase of injuries. Some guys (like Cozart) have done their work in Double-A and is just ready for the next level. It varies from team to team. I know the Marlins keep a big majority of their prospects in Double-A and call them up straight from there and have very few big prospects in Triple-A. Hardly ever does a "prospect' with the Marlins go to Triple-A before being called up, it's usually once you're in Double-A, you're almost ready. Does that help?

It does help, thanks. It would seem then that jump between AA and AAA is much smaller than High A and AA. AA is the real proving grounds then?

[cinreds21]

Yea, the jump from High-A to Double-A is probably the biggest.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by LeDoux

Would it be accurate to say that there are two types of players in AAA:
40 man roster: various ages, primary backup for injury
Other: young prospects in the proving grounds?

or is this a gross oversimplication?

There's also a third category: Organizational filler. These are the guys that are no longer considered real prospects, aren't on the 40-man roster, and aren't likely to ever see the show again (if they ever did). Every Triple-A squad needs these guys, because there aren't enough young-but-advanced prospects and 40-man guys to go around, and anyway, someone has to ride the bench.

[LeDoux]

Thanks for the input everyone. I understand the minor league system a little better now.

[cinreds21]

If you have any more questions about it or anything baseball related, feel free to PM me