Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper

[OnBaseMachine]

It sounds like Junior Arias isn't the only Reds prospect creating some buzz in the Arizona Summer League. Reds left handed pitcher Ismael Guillon has been pitching very well. Last night he struck out 10 batters in 4.2 innings and now has a 3.15 ERA with 12 BB/41 K in 34.1 innings and has yet to allow a home run. Guillon, as you may recall, was signed by the Reds as a 16-year old out of Venezuela in 2008 during that great International signing class by the Reds that also featured Yorman Rodriguez, Juan Duran, and Junior Arias.

Guillon originally signed for $625,000 but his contract was voided and he resigned a cheaper deal after it was determined he would need Tommy John surgery. The Reds tweaked Guillon's mechanics after the surgery and according to Keith Law, he impressed scouts with a 90-93 mph fastball and good changeup in Instructional League last October. Now at age 18 he's finally pitching in real games and pitching quite well.

I sent Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus a tweet asking him about Guillon and if he thought he was a potential sleeper.

OnBaseMachine: @Kevin_Goldstein You have any info on #Reds lefty Ismael Guillon? 3.15 ERA and 12 BB/41 K in 34 IP in Arizona. Potential sleeper?

Kevin_Goldstein: Good arm with projection. More than a sleeper.

http://twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein

Interesting. It sounds like Goldstein thinks highly of him.

[GIDP]

Yea this kid looks pretty good. thanks for the info.

[Benihana]

As far as I'm concerned, he's the best Reds pitching prospect in all of Rookie League. Great to see him having early success at such a young age.

Guillon
Rodriguez
Duran
Arias
Torreyes
Valor

6 bona fide prospects all not even legal adults yet. Good times!

[mace]

Originally Posted by Benihana

As far as I'm concerned, he's the best Reds pitching prospect in all of Rookie League. Great to see him having early success at such a young age.

I don't disagree that, by scouting reports, stuff, size, performance--all of those things--Guillon may well be the best prospect among the rookie pitchers. I think he might be a top-15 prospect in the organization. However, I don't think he has that universe all to himself. There are a few rookie pitchers (and I'm not including Billings) who may warrant being mentioned in the same sentence.

Here are some of the pertinent numbers (and frankly, numbers are only so pertinent at this stage of the game).

From the AZL Reds (IP...H...BB...K...ERA)

Ismael Guillion, 18, LH: 34.1...28...12...41...3.15
Jonathan Correa, 19, RH: 28.1...28...6...37...2.22
Mitchell Clarke, 19, LH: 23...23...4...23...2.35
El'Hajj Muhammad, 19, RH: 16.1...14...9...23...2.20
Radhames Quezada, 20, RH: 8...3...2...11...1.13
(Quezada has pitched mainly for the DSL Reds.)

From the VSL Reds

Luis Gonzalez, 17, LH: 59...47...13...40...2.59
Franderlin Romero, 19, RH: 55...51...21...36...2.29
Alejandro Chacin, 17, RH: 28.1...17...11...23...1.59
Orlando Chiquin, 20, RH: 25.1...18...12...10...1.07

From the DSL Reds

Elizier Beard, 19, RH: 39.1...28...12...22...1.37
Abel De Los Santos, 18, LH: 47.1...31...21...40...2.09
(De Los Santos has also hit 13 batters)
Radhames Quezada, 20, RH: 43...32...17...29...2.09
Jose Guzman, 18, RH: 30...17...22...31...2.10
Carlos Ramos, 19, RH: 17.1...10...11...25...0.52

Beard, at 6-4, and Guzman, at 6-3, sport the same kind of size as Guillon, although neither is a lefty. But De Los Santos is. Gonzalez is, and he's younger. Chacin is also a very young 17 (just turned). Correa has a history of success, and a remarkable K:BB ratio for a teenager.

Just sayin'.

(If anybody cares to clean this up a bit, please be my guest.)

[nemesis]

Originally Posted by mace

(If anybody cares to clean this up a bit, please be my guest.)

Nope. You did a great job.

Correa is a personal favorite. If he hadn't been suspended for PED's at 17 we might have heard and seen more of him.

Clarke is another one who was stuck behind Tuttle, Cline and Johnson last year. This year he is behind Guillon, Correa and Quezada.

LH 6'2 and over 200lbs, has a great frame. Is a GB pitcher, and has a ton of control while keeping a 9 per K rate. Clarke excites me since in Canada he probably didn't have that much development or wear and tear.

[mace]

You can add tonight's fine line to Correa's totals: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K. For the season, he now has 44 strikeouts and 7 walks. His ERA is 1.83.

[OnBaseMachine]

Guillon had a dominant start last night: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K. That brings his overall numbers to: 57 IP, 39 H, 1 HR, 23 BB, 73 K, 3.32 ERA. 3.63 BB/9. 11.53 K/9. I think Guillon is in the discussion for the second best pitching prospect in the Reds organization.

[GIDP]

1.087 WHIP
3.18 K/BB ratio
and a Lefty

I kinda like that.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Guillon had a dominant start last night: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K. That brings his overall numbers to: 57 IP, 39 H, 1 HR, 23 BB, 73 K, 3.32 ERA. 3.63 BB/9. 11.53 K/9. I think Guillon is in the discussion for the second best pitching prospect in the Reds organization.

At the very worst he is 4th. At the very best, he is 2nd.

[lollipopcurve]

There's a nice cluster of 18-20 year old arms -- Guillon, Lotzkar, Johnson, Correa, Tuttle, Cisco, Corcino, Muhammad, Mugarian, Clarke, P. Martinez... and I'm sure I'm missing some. The current rotation is nice and young, but the Reds will need this next wave to produce major league quality starting pitching once the current group ambles up to the big money table.

[krm1580]

Has anyone actually seen him pitch? I am curious about how he looks as the reviews on him were kind of mixed as a 16yo signee. They were basically along the lines of good stuff for his age, but does not project to have much more based on body type and delivery.

He was at 88-92 with a good change as a 16yo. Has he added to that? Is his delivery funky?

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

At the very worst he is 4th. At the very best, he is 2nd.

Including relievers?

If you include everybody except guys who have already pitched in the majors (Maloney, LeCure, Thompson, etc.), what would your top 5 be? Without studying the particulars, mine might go something like this:

1. Chapman
2. Joseph
3. Guillon
4. Johnson
5. Correa

And after that, it's a scrum:

6. Corcino
7. Hotchkiss
8. Lotzkar
9. De Los Santos
10. Guzman
11. Gonzalez
12. Robles
13. Mugarian
14. Tuttle
15. Fairel
16. Beard
17. Ware
18. Horst
19. Cisco
20. Freeman
21. Ravin
22. Peralta
23. Ramos
24. Thurman
25. Muhammad

That represents quite a drop for Sulbaran and Klinker, though I haven't given up on either. I might have slighted Scott Carroll, but at this point don't see him as a big-leaguer.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by krm1580

Is his delivery funky?

His delivery has been funky in the past. It is the main concern I have with him. If his delivery isn't clean up, is he going to hold up.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

Including relievers?

For starters, you absolutely did slight Carroll. You listed a kid in the Dominican Summer League who I just can't imagine you know a single thing about other than his numbers against kids that mostly should be in high school ahead of Carroll who is in AA with solid numbers and a real good fastball.

As for including relievers, I wasn't. My bad DJ, you probably jump in there too. But really, outside of Joseph, no one else is close.

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

For starters, you absolutely did slight Carroll. You listed a kid in the Dominican Summer League who I just can't imagine you know a single thing about other than his numbers against kids that mostly should be in high school ahead of Carroll who is in AA with solid numbers and a real good fastball.

Sorry, didn't mean to offend you or Carroll. And yes, I'm guilty of listing several young guys about whom I know next to nothing but the numbers. I have seen Carroll pitch, however. And I'm aware of his virtues. I hope he makes it.