John Sickels on Devin Mesoraco

[OnBaseMachine]

I meant to post this earlier today but forgot.

Based on what I currently know, I think his improvement is genuine. That's not to say that his development will continue in a linear way. Catchers often have strange development paths, and he could regress next year. But I don't think '10 is a fluke, and his stock has obviously shot up again. I rate him as a Grade B+ prospect currently.

Full piece:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/...devin-mesoraco

[GIDP]

I was reading that earlier. While he kinda admits he wrote off Mes too early and says the year is realistic numbers, he still finds ways to allow himself to back track. Ends up saying hes a B+ prospect.

The pride of these guys is really comical to me. I like Sickels, but he seems to be saying 1 thing then finding something else to make it seem like he honestly wasnt that wrong and builds a case for him to recover when hes wrong again.

[SeeinRed]

I agree with GIDP. Sound like to me that Sickels' main agenda was to defend his previous analysis. Kind of like saying yeah I was wrong, but it wasn't my fault. Granted, Devin had a pretty bad year last year, but a player doesn't turn from a terrible prospect to a good one in one season. There had to be signs there and scouts that saw them. I also find it unlikely that a player just completely revamps his swing in one season and suddenly becomes a very good hitter.

My gut feeling is there was not a lot of legwork that went into his original analysis and he is now seeing it blow up in his face. Just my opinion, and probably a very wrong one.

[bubbachunk]

I didnt think he really had any real defensive issues or am I missing something?

[IslandRed]

On Sickels' scale, a B+ is a pretty strong grade. An A is reserved for those he considers virtual can't-miss successes. In his organizational Top 20s from last winter, there were a number of farm systems -- including some we'd consider pretty decent -- that didn't have anyone above a B+.

[Griffey012]

I feel like a B+ is a pretty fair assessment. He has been awesome this year, but Sickels mentions the historically unpredictable track record of catching prospects. If he would have taken that 1 step further and mentioned the bad record of 1st round picks he would have been spot on.

[marcshoe]

I'd written Mes off before the season started. I mean, failed first rounders haven't exactly been rare in the past. He surprised me this season. I still can't help but wonder if he won't eventually be packaged in a trade, but at least if this is the case he now has value.

[REDblooded]

Originally Posted by bubbachunk

I didnt think he really had any real defensive issues or am I missing something?

Passed balls...

[mbgrayson]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

On Sickels' scale, a B+ is a pretty strong grade. An A is reserved for those he considers virtual can't-miss successes. In his organizational Top 20s from last winter, there were a number of farm systems -- including some we'd consider pretty decent -- that didn't have anyone above a B+.

In Sickels 2010 Prospect book, there were a total of 10 position players/hitters rated higher than a B+ (either A- or A).

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by mbgrayson

In Sickels 2010 Prospect book, there were a total of 10 position players/hitters rated higher than a B+ (either A- or A).

For perspective, in 2008, Bruce was an "A" and both Votto and Cueto were "A-". That same year, Mesoraco got a "B"--but I think it was pretty much only based on his high draft status and a very small sample in the minors.

Here is the original thread. (hat tip to RedLegSuperstar).

And here is Sickels' 2008 take on Mes:

7) Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
.280/.329/.436 for Dayton in the Midwest League. Plate discipline has been shaky, but overall this is good for the pitching-dominated Midwest League.

[camisadelgolf]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ts-chat-92710/
John Sickels isn't the only one to think 2010 wasn't a fluke for Mesoraco. Bryan Smith of fangraphs said:

I think [Mesoraco] can stick behind the plate, and I think he can legitimately hit a fastball a long way. I don't think he's ever hitting .302/.377/.587 in the Majors, but then again, he's probably the MVP if he does. He's probably like a .270/.340/.470 hitter in the bigs, which at catcher, is awfully valuable.

There were multiple mentions of Aroldis Chapman and also a quick mention of Zach Stewart if you're interested in reading the entire chat.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ts-chat-92710/
John Sickels isn't the only one to think 2010 was a fluke for Mesoraco. Bryan Smith of fangraphs said:


There were multiple mentions of Aroldis Chapman and also a quick mention of Zach Stewart if you're interested in reading the entire chat.

I didn't read that as thinking Mesoraco is a fluke at all. All he really said was he doesn't see Mez being a .950 hitter in the majors. Does anyone really disagree with that? I sure don't. Very few hitters are able to do that. But that doesn't mean I think he's a fluke.

I think this is a case where he's just being realistic about the translation to major league success. I don't think that's saying he's been a fluke this year. He basically added he would not be surprised if he's an .800 catcher. That's pretty complimentary IMHO.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I didn't read that as thinking Mesoraco is a fluke at all. All he really said was he doesn't see Mez being a .950 hitter in the majors. Does anyone really disagree with that? I sure don't. Very few hitters are able to do that. But that doesn't mean I think he's a fluke.

I think this is a case where he's just being realistic about the translation to major league success. I don't think that's saying he's been a fluke this year. He basically added he would not be surprised if he's an .800 catcher. That's pretty complimentary IMHO.

This.

He has Mesoraco as an .810 OPS catcher.... That is pretty elite company. Three catchers were able to top that in 2009 with at least 450 at bats. Only 4 guys over 400 at bats were able to do that.

[RedsManRick]

I read both of those as simply that they don't think Mesoraco will perform at a HOF level. For what it's worth, here are the catcher seasons of OPS >.900 w/ minimum of 350 PA.

Rk	Player		Year	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI
1	Joe Mauer	2009	26	606	.365	.444	.587	1.031	28	 96
2	Jorge Posada	2007	35	589	.338	.426	.543	 .970	20	 90
3	Joe Mauer	2006	23	608	.347	.429	.507	 .936	13	 84
4	Brian McCann	2006	22	492	.333	.388	.572	 .961	24	 93
5	Javy Lopez	2003	32	495	.328	.378	.687	1.065	43	109
6	Jorge Posada	2003	31	588	.281	.405	.518	 .922	30	101
7	Mike Piazza	2002	33	541	.280	.359	.544	 .903	33	 98
8	Paul Lo Duca	2001	29	519	.320	.374	.543	 .917	25	 90
9	Mike Piazza	2001	32	573	.300	.384	.573	 .957	36	 94
10	Jorge Posada	2000	28	624	.287	.417	.527	 .943	28	 86
11	Mike Piazza	2000	31	545	.324	.398	.614	1.012	38	113
12	Charles Johnson	2000	28	478	.304	.379	.582	 .961	31	 91

That's 12 seasons from 6 guys in the last decade, about 1 per year. Two of those 6 guys are likely future HOFers (Mauer & Piazza) and I certainly wouldn't rule Posada or McCann.

There have been 65 catcher seasons of .800+ OPS since 2000. If Mesoraco plays in 120 games and hits .270/.350/.450, that would make him one of the best catchers in baseball. We shouldn't get worried that people don't think he'll sustain a .950+ OPS.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I didn't read that as thinking Mesoraco is a fluke at all. All he really said was he doesn't see Mez being a .950 hitter in the majors. Does anyone really disagree with that? I sure don't. Very few hitters are able to do that. But that doesn't mean I think he's a fluke.

I think this is a case where he's just being realistic about the translation to major league success. I don't think that's saying he's been a fluke this year. He basically added he would not be surprised if he's an .800 catcher. That's pretty complimentary IMHO.

It was a typo. Whoops.