Reds' 2010 magic number - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

klw · 05-16-2010, 07:56 PM

125

Hopefully this will not be a very short thread.

REDblooded · 05-16-2010, 07:57 PM

omg you just jinxed it

Ghosts of 1990 · 05-16-2010, 08:17 PM

Oh brother haha.

max venable · 05-16-2010, 08:25 PM

hey, I just think it's nice to actually have a magic number.

any combination of Reds wins and Cards losses means we win the division! let the countdown begin.

Hoosier Red · 05-16-2010, 08:28 PM

I put it up as my facebook status. Glad I calculated correctly.

TheNext44 · 05-16-2010, 08:30 PM

I thought 3 was the magic number?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA69pmhrBiE

klw · 05-18-2010, 11:44 AM

With Monday's win over the Brewers and St. Louis's win

124

klw · 05-18-2010, 03:58 PM

123!!!

Degenerate39 · 05-18-2010, 04:08 PM

If the Cards lose today will it drop to 122? How does that work

mbgrayson · 05-18-2010, 04:24 PM

Not to be a wet blanket, but the numbers here are not right. At best, the '123' can represent our magic number vs. the Cards. (I haven't double checked the math, but assuming it is right.)

We also have a magic number vs. every other team in the division. Since the Cardinals are in second, our number vs. them is currently the highest. But it is quite possible for there to be a combined total of 123 Reds wins and Cardinal losses the rest of the year, and neither of those teams make the playoffs. What if the Cubs actually get hot, and pass up the Cardinals or the Reds? May seem unlikely right now, but there is a lot of baseball yet to play. Cubbies are only 5 or 6 games back.

Magic numbers really only work well toward the end of the season when you are down to two or three teams.

There are also several sites that do a 'playoff odds report'. This morning, before today's win, they listed the Reds as having a 34% chance of making the playoffs, and the Cardinals as having a 60% chance. The reason? Pythag records and win expectency based on pythag.

See http://www.coolstandings.com/basebal...gs.asp?i=1.com

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php

But I will say this: with how the Reds have been playing the last two weeks, it is hard to see them not having a really good chance to win the division. The Pirates, Astros, Brewers, and Cubs have looked terrible. The Cardinals look much better than the other teams, so it is natural to look at them as the only club that could beat the Reds.

But things do change and shift throughout the season.

Hoosier Red · 05-18-2010, 05:25 PM

MBGrayson,

You're essentially correct. The magic number assumes that its combined Reds wins with the team behind us losses.

The magin number (vs. Cardinals) is 123
(vs. Cubs) is 118
(vs. Pirates) is 118
(vs. Brewers) is 116
(vs. Astros) is 115

RedsBaron · 05-19-2010, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

MBGrayson,

You're essentially correct. The magic number assumes that its combined Reds wins with the team behind us losses.

The magin number (vs. Cardinals) is 123
(vs. Cubs) is 118
(vs. Pirates) is 118
(vs. Brewers) is 116
(vs. Astros) is 115

To be safe the Reds should just win another 123 games. That would give the Reds 146 wins, which would probably be sufficient.

Ghosts of 1990 · 05-19-2010, 01:50 PM

I feel like this thread is a really bad jinx... that is, if anyone is taking it seriously yet... someone kick me for bumping it before August

klw · 05-21-2010, 10:26 PM

121

klw · 08-11-2010, 06:39 AM

I was going to bump this when the Reds got it down to 50. That happened coming into the series but I didn't want to jinx. Now to undo the jinx by not trying to jinx, I bump this. The Reds magic number is 50. (So is the Cardinals but that's another story)

05-16-2010, 07:56 PM	#1
klw Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New England Posts: 4,290	Reds' 2010 magic number 125 Hopefully this will not be a very short thread.

05-16-2010, 07:57 PM	#2
REDblooded Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2,126	Re: Reds' magic number omg you just jinxed it __________________ 2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays) Bryce Brentz Brandon Workman Kris Bryant Matt Lipka Rick Hague

05-16-2010, 08:17 PM	#3
Ghosts of 1990 The Future is Now Join Date: May 2008 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 3,884	Re: Reds' magic number Oh brother haha. __________________ 2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4 2013 Attendance Record: 1-1

05-16-2010, 08:25 PM	#4
max venable Bunn-O-matic Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Sugarcreek, Ohio Posts: 2,698	Re: Reds' magic number hey, I just think it's nice to actually have a magic number. any combination of Reds wins and Cards losses means we win the division! let the countdown begin. __________________ For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism.

05-16-2010, 08:28 PM	#5
Hoosier Red Member Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Indianapolis, IN Posts: 6,853	Re: Reds' magic number I put it up as my facebook status. Glad I calculated correctly. __________________ When people say that I don’t know what I’m talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life. ---Joe Posnanski

05-16-2010, 08:30 PM	#6
TheNext44 Socratic Gadfly Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 4,224	Re: Reds' magic number I thought 3 was the magic number? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA69pmhrBiE __________________ "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

05-18-2010, 11:44 AM	#7
klw Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New England Posts: 4,290	Re: Reds' magic number With Monday's win over the Brewers and St. Louis's win 124

05-18-2010, 03:58 PM	#8
klw Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New England Posts: 4,290	Re: Reds' magic number 123!!!

05-18-2010, 04:08 PM	#9
Degenerate39 Senor Votto Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 7,847	Re: Reds' magic number If the Cards lose today will it drop to 122? How does that work __________________ Most Vottomatic Player

05-18-2010, 04:24 PM	#10
mbgrayson Red's fan Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Montana Posts: 1,933	Re: Reds' magic number Not to be a wet blanket, but the numbers here are not right. At best, the '123' can represent our magic number vs. the Cards. (I haven't double checked the math, but assuming it is right.) We also have a magic number vs. every other team in the division. Since the Cardinals are in second, our number vs. them is currently the highest. But it is quite possible for there to be a combined total of 123 Reds wins and Cardinal losses the rest of the year, and neither of those teams make the playoffs. What if the Cubs actually get hot, and pass up the Cardinals or the Reds? May seem unlikely right now, but there is a lot of baseball yet to play. Cubbies are only 5 or 6 games back. Magic numbers really only work well toward the end of the season when you are down to two or three teams. There are also several sites that do a 'playoff odds report'. This morning, before today's win, they listed the Reds as having a 34% chance of making the playoffs, and the Cardinals as having a 60% chance. The reason? Pythag records and win expectency based on pythag. See http://www.coolstandings.com/basebal...gs.asp?i=1.com http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php But I will say this: with how the Reds have been playing the last two weeks, it is hard to see them not having a really good chance to win the division. The Pirates, Astros, Brewers, and Cubs have looked terrible. The Cardinals look much better than the other teams, so it is natural to look at them as the only club that could beat the Reds. But things do change and shift throughout the season. __________________ __________________ "I genuinely like this team. I like the vibe and spirit of this team. This is just the beginning." Dusty on 2/19/12.

05-18-2010, 05:25 PM	#11
Hoosier Red Member Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Indianapolis, IN Posts: 6,853	Re: Reds' magic number MBGrayson, You're essentially correct. The magic number assumes that its combined Reds wins with the team behind us losses. The magin number (vs. Cardinals) is 123 (vs. Cubs) is 118 (vs. Pirates) is 118 (vs. Brewers) is 116 (vs. Astros) is 115 __________________ When people say that I don’t know what I’m talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life. ---Joe Posnanski

05-19-2010, 01:50 PM	#13
Ghosts of 1990 The Future is Now Join Date: May 2008 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 3,884	Re: Reds' magic number I feel like this thread is a really bad jinx... that is, if anyone is taking it seriously yet... someone kick me for bumping it before August __________________ 2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4 2013 Attendance Record: 1-1

05-21-2010, 10:26 PM	#14
klw Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New England Posts: 4,290	Re: Reds' magic number 121

08-11-2010, 06:39 AM	#15
klw Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New England Posts: 4,290	Re: Reds' magic number I was going to bump this when the Reds got it down to 50. That happened coming into the series but I didn't want to jinx. Now to undo the jinx by not trying to jinx, I bump this. The Reds magic number is 50. (So is the Cardinals but that's another story)

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