Who is Redszone's #5 prospect?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by New Fever

I agree, but was speaking more on the fact that Grandal is an industry lock to be a Top 100 prospect, and he has one vote. Grandal and Hamilton will be ranked fairly close to each other when list come out this winter.

Probably true. But in my mind, Hamilton is clearly ahead of Grandal. Not that they aren't close as prospects, but to me, Hamilton is clearly the better of the two.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm not going to argue with anyone who picks Cozart, Hamilton, or even Grandal for that matter--but for me, I'm going with last year's #1 prospect, Todd Frazier. Sure, he had some struggles, but I like that his floor is really high.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Probably true. But in my mind, Hamilton is clearly ahead of Grandal. Not that they aren't close as prospects, but to me, Hamilton is clearly the better of the two.

I tend to agree with the ultimate choice, Doug, but two questions:

1) is it fair to say someone is clearly better when the other hasn't taken more than a handful of professional swings? And,

2) if it is fair, isn't it about who might be better in the future, not so much who's better now?

As I stated in the No. 4 prospect thread about Hamilton, I like his upside and his tools cannot be ignored. So really I can completely relate to you on him. But I also don't know if it's fair to completely go by "now" as a comparison.

That was the reason I didn't pick Cozart over Hamilton. Technically speaking, Cozart is better than Hamilton right now, but the issue is that Hamilton is likely to be better a few years down the road.

[HokieRed]

Hamilton. Not close yet, but will be on the next one, as it means starting to balance things like nearness to bigs, position value, etc. Should start to get pretty interesting.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I expect him to get more at bats, for starters. The minor league seasons go 140-144 games. Major League seasons go a little longer. Plus, he is likely to get a little stronger moving forward.

Not to mention he's currently hitting in a less homer friendly park than GABP.

[Mario-Rijo]

Hypothetical question, why is it assumed Cozart can't someday hit for a high avg.? And if he does how does that change his projections, how high a ceiling would he then have? I don't believe guys stop improving at 24.

If he ends up hitting .270 or better he's likely a 20/20 SS with above average defense. Heck he might be a 20/20 guy hitting .250. How is that viewed as a low ceiling? Combine that with the fact he's close and I don't know how anyone can't give him a pretty high grade.

[Superdude]

I like Hamilton a whole lot more than last year, but I'd still like to see what he does in Dayton before I get too excited. So much of his offensive value seems to be hinging on his on base skills at this point, and it's tough to project that from a half season of rookie league ball.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I like Hamilton a whole lot more than last year, but I'd still like to see what he does in Dayton before I get too excited. So much of his offensive value seems to be hinging on his on base skills at this point, and it's tough to project that from a half season of rookie league ball.

I think OB skills, with a speedy prospect able to draw walks, is the most predictable to expect going forward. I agree that, in general, what someone does in 500 PAs at rookie ball is way too premature to get too reliant on. But if there are skills that I feel comfortable in projecting, it would be those. '

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I tend to agree with the ultimate choice, Doug, but two questions:

1) is it fair to say someone is clearly better when the other hasn't taken more than a handful of professional swings? And,

2) if it is fair, isn't it about who might be better in the future, not so much who's better now?

As I stated in the No. 4 prospect thread about Hamilton, I like his upside and his tools cannot be ignored. So really I can completely relate to you on him. But I also don't know if it's fair to completely go by "now" as a comparison.

That was the reason I didn't pick Cozart over Hamilton. Technically speaking, Cozart is better than Hamilton right now, but the issue is that Hamilton is likely to be better a few years down the road.

I think it is fair to hold such an opinion as long as there is a reason for it. In terms of what I see with Grandal, I see a below average defender behind the plate with an above average bat, but only because its at the catcher position. I just feel that Hamilton is going to be more than that.

And its absolutely about who is better in the future. Until Yasmani Grandal does something to change my mind on what I see him becoming, I am going to continue to feel that Hamilton is the better prospect. I think you misunderstood my statement on the two prospects. I wasn't saying that Hamilton is the better player now, but that he is the better prospect because I like his future better. All things considered, Grandal is probably the better player today if we threw both guys into the majors. But long term, I am taking Hamilton every single time because I just feel better about his future prospects as a Major Leaguer.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think it is fair to hold such an opinion as long as there is a reason for it. In terms of what I see with Grandal, I see a below average defender behind the plate with an above average bat, but only because its at the catcher position. I just feel that Hamilton is going to be more than that.

And its absolutely about who is better in the future. Until Yasmani Grandal does something to change my mind on what I see him becoming, I am going to continue to feel that Hamilton is the better prospect. I think you misunderstood my statement on the two prospects. I wasn't saying that Hamilton is the better player now, but that he is the better prospect because I like his future better. All things considered, Grandal is probably the better player today if we threw both guys into the majors. But long term, I am taking Hamilton every single time because I just feel better about his future prospects as a Major Leaguer.

Thank you for clarifying that. That makes sense.

The only point of contention here is that Grandal only being above average a bat only because "it's at the catcher position." That might well be true, though I haven't seen enough to really know one way or the other, but isn't it always relative to position? That's what gives guys their value. Someone that can hit .750 at catcher, as we've talked about with Mesoraco, is valuable because it's so rare to find that. I don't know what Grandal's prospects are as a defensive catcher. I'll defer to you because I've never seen him call a game, nor have I even spoken to anyone that has. But let's say he's slightly below average defensively... that he is above average a hitter for a catcher, isn't that why he was drafted? If he can hit and hold his own defensively, that's the value in taking him.

Of course, that's not to say any of your points about taking Hamilton aren't valid. As I said, I do actually agree with you because I think his ceiling at another premium position is pretty good. I love the thought of having Hamilton, Y-Rod and Mesoraco up the middle in a few years down the line. All I want to say is that in defense of Grandal, his ability to hit at that position is a big plus in his favor.

Once again, thanks for the follow-up.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Thank you for clarifying that. That makes sense.

The only point of contention here is that Grandal only being above average a bat only because "it's at the catcher position." That might well be true, though I haven't seen enough to really know one way or the other, but isn't it always relative to position? That's what gives guys their value. Someone that can hit .750 at catcher, as we've talked about with Mesoraco, is valuable because it's so rare to find that. I don't know what Grandal's prospects are as a defensive catcher. I'll defer to you because I've never seen him call a game, nor have I even spoken to anyone that has. But let's say he's slightly below average defensively... that he is above average a hitter for a catcher, isn't that why he was drafted? If he can hit and hold his own defensively, that's the value in taking him.

Well it is all relative, but for example, if Devin Mesoraco had to move to 3B or 1B for some reason, I think his bat could do fine there. If Yasmani Grandal has to do that, for example because his defense doesn't come around, well, his bat likely can't handle the move to a position that he could actually play. Now if he does turn into what I said, below average defender, above average bat, there is plenty of value in that.

[mth123]

I agree with a lot of what has been said here and from a tools and athleticism standpoint, Yorman and Hamilton should probably be numbers 2 and 3, but Billings is an offensive players paradise and good numbers there merely keep you from being written-off IMO. The jump to Dayton is cavernous, the next one to A+ is just as big and the jumps to AA and AAA even bigger.

I think we too easily dismiss guys who have already made those jumps and in Cozart's case added to his game (like adding a running game and some home run power) along the way. Of everyone left, Cozart is most likely to help a team in a somewhat regular role.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

I agree with a lot of what has been said here and from a tools and athleticism standpoint, Yorman and Hamilton should probably be numbers 2 and 3, but Billings is an offensive players paradise and good numbers there merely keep you from being written-off IMO. The jump to Dayton is cavernous, the next one to A+ is just as big and the jumps to AA and AAA even bigger.

While Hamilton's numbers are nice, I am so much more impressed by the things said about him by scouts and coaches along with the things that I have seen by watching him play. Those are the things that I pay most attention to at the lower levels. I don't expect Hamilton to OPS .800 next year in Dayton. I still think he will likely be one of the best prospects in the entire league when the season is over because the guy has talents that others just don't.

[Betterread]

Hamilton better be very very good next year, and the year after that. because Arias is coming and he looks like a special hitter. Competition is beautiful.

[CincyRed44]

Just curious, why is Felix Perez not included on these lists. I like his chances much more then most of the available list. It's quite possible the gaping whole known as LF will be his to lose within the next couple years.

As for my choice in this round I took Hamilton, I like toolsy MIs with lots of speed, great D and a strong arm and if he can maintain that batting average near the 2010 plateau then the sky is the limit for him.