Who is Redszone's #6 prospect?

[mace]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

I'm not sure it's prudent to argue anyone that doesn't even have a true position defensively has more defensive value. Heck, Francisco has had just 20 chances in his MLB defensive career and made 2 errors already. That's a huge old sample size issue, but it does nothing to inspire any sort of confidence.

He plays a more premium defensive position than did Pena, but if he's not any good at it, it actually makes him less valuable because the position would give up more runs with a bad defender than the OF positions would do.

From where do you conjure this notion that he doesn't have a true position? He's played 467 games in the minor leagues and 452 of them at third base. And that's while being a teammate of Todd Frazier for much of the time. He won a Gold Glove in one of his winter leagues. Everybody who has frequently watched him says he has a great and accurate arm. The only issue I've heard about his defense is that he often has difficulty transferring the ball from glove to hand. You might recall that when Dusty was managing the roster, he stated that he liked having Francisco around as "a true third baseman," or something tantamount to that.

[Scrap Irony]

Francisco was my pick.

He's been extremely productive across the minor league ladder and in his small sample of major league games. His power is among the best in the game and he's still very young.

When compared to Grandal, Francisco grades out as likely younger at a higher level (as it will probably take him longer than a couple years to be where Francisco is now). Francisco also grades out as a much better bat, with both a higher ceiling and a higher floor.

Grandal grades out much higher defensively and across the spectrum of positional value, but that's tempered a bit by his level and lack of professional experience, especially considering his C position.

As to Frazier, Francisco grades out with better power and better minor league numbers at the same level against the same pitchers at the same time. (Which is just about the only way minor league players should be evaluated with pure numbers.) Francisco's BB rate, a topic of great concern and debate across Redszone, has improved each of the past three years. He still has a long way to go in that arena, but his power (likely a 500+ slugging percentage in the major leagues) can mask a lot of that. Too, he seems to be that odd guy that improves as he hits against better pitchers.

Positionally, it looks as if the Reds are going to keep Frazier either in LF, 1B, and occasionally at 3B, meaning Francisco actually gets a slight bump. Francisco, too, has a higher ceiling. Frazier does have the better defensive range and footwork, but Francisco's arm is tops.

The keys between the two of them is youth and production. Frazier is already 26 and hasn't sniffed the majors. Francisco's 23 and had a couple cups of coffee. Plus, Francisco's numbers-- especially in 2010-- have been better.

[Mario-Rijo]

Frazier is 24. He is approximately a year and 5 months older than Juan.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by mace

From where do you conjure this notion that he doesn't have a true position? He's played 467 games in the minor leagues and 452 of them at third base. And that's while being a teammate of Todd Frazier for much of the time. He won a Gold Glove in one of his winter leagues. Everybody who has frequently watched him says he has a great and accurate arm. The only issue I've heard about his defense is that he often has difficulty transferring the ball from glove to hand. You might recall that when Dusty was managing the roster, he stated that he liked having Francisco around as "a true third baseman," or something tantamount to that.

I don't have a problem with his throwing arm or accuracy from what little I've seen thus far. However, I see very little range laterally from him left to right, which is a a huge problem in terms of reaction time meaning a lot at that position. Second, making the transfer means everything in the world at the position. It's what separates infield singles from the types of plays you see Ryan Zimmerman make.

I don't think Francisco can/will stick at third base and I know I'm not anywhere near alone in that belief. If he doesn't stick at third, where would he play? Left field is the only other possibility and for some reason, most don't see that being an experiment that would work.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

Left field is the only other possibility and for some reason, most don't see that being an experiment that would work.

"Most" don't think JF can play left field? Who is "most"?

He probably can also play first base. Or can be a DH. Has the bat for both of those spots.

As for third base, he has the advantage of a great throwing arm which can compensate if he doesn't have cat-like moves.

JF has a true power bat. They will find a position for him. He'll be hitting homers for the Reds or someone else.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Kc61

"Most" don't think JF can play left field? Who is "most"?

He probably can also play first base. Or can be a DH. Has the bat for both of those spots.

As for third base, he has the advantage of a great throwing arm which can compensate if he doesn't have cat-like moves.

JF has a true power bat. They will find a position for him. He'll be hitting homers for the Reds or someone else.

When did the first base position open up? Where do the Reds have a DH spot available?

Francisco's ticket is not in the NL.

His true power bat also comes with what currently projects to be extremely on-base challenged.

Wily Mo Pena is an apt comparison, at this point in time.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp

When did the first base position open up? Where do the Reds have a DH spot available?

First base doesn't have to open up for him to have the ability to play it. Prospects should be graded as if they aren't blocked at a position. It isn't their fault that someone blocks them or plays them out of position.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

First base doesn't have to open up for him to have the ability to play it. Prospects should be graded as if they aren't blocked at a position. It isn't their fault that someone blocks them or plays them out of position.

Fair enough, but that doesn't mean he can play it. Not everyone can make a move to first base.

I still stand behind my assertion that he's without a position.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Just a thought, but I'd like to see a "poll" done where the top 10-20 prospects are rated "MVP-style", with a 10-9-8-7-etc....points system rather than voting on prospect 1, then moving on to 2, etc....that may give us a better across-the-board look at how Redszone views their prospects. For instance, if I think Grandal is actually the 10th best prospect, this system eliminates that opinion from its rankings, as Grandal is out of the discussion by the time #10 rolls around. Not to say I don't enjoy these threads...I love them!

I agree. That is a much better system. And I also agree that I love the idea of a Message Board top prospects list to compare to the "national experts". However, is the list a true reflection of the different opinions on the board? With the current list, people vote prospect place by place, rather than the place of the prospect by prospect. Its more "fun" and "social" to do the poll this way - you can vote for who you think will win (again - place by place) but its not logical. Then again, I recognize that I take prospect analysis and ranking pretty seriously, perhaps too seriously. So I may be in the minority here.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Betterread

I agree. That is a much better system. And I also agree that I love the idea of a Message Board top prospects list to compare to the "national experts". However, is the list a true reflection of the different opinions on the board? With the current list, people vote prospect place by place, rather than the place of the prospect by prospect. Its more "fun" and "social" to do the poll this way - you can vote for who you think will win (again - place by place) but its not logical. Then again, I recognize that I take prospect analysis and ranking pretty seriously, perhaps too seriously. So I may be in the minority here.

In theory, the other way would work better..... if everyone voting actually had a lot of information on the players they were voting on. But, I don't really think most do beyond a handful of guys and this way actually allows us to discuss everyone and get more information out there on the guys.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

In theory, the other way would work better..... if everyone voting actually had a lot of information on the players they were voting on. But, I don't really think most do beyond a handful of guys and this way actually allows us to discuss everyone and get more information out there on the guys.

If I am understanding you correctly, this is a system/prospect promotional thread for the board. I never thought of it that way before.
You are aware though, that national prospect-related experts may not be as knowledgeable on all aspects of the Reds system as some local prospect oriented fans, right? So if the prospect rankings reflected more of the specific knowledge of the board, rather than the general zeal of the board, they could concievably influence national rankings, instead of mirror them.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Betterread

If I am understanding you correctly, this is a system/prospect promotional thread for the board. I never thought of it that way before.
You are aware though, that national prospect-related experts may not be as knowledgeable on all aspects of the Reds system as some local prospect oriented fans, right? So if the prospect rankings reflected more of the specific knowledge of the board, rather than the general zeal of the board, they could concievably influence national rankings, instead of mirror them.

I am fully confident that there are 2-4 guys/gals on this board with the information on our prospects as the national guys.