Who is Redszone's #17 prospect?

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Why?


Others have higher ceilings, better stuff, and more production.
.

I didn't vote for Lecure.

But please explain how the others have "more production."

Lecure has put up good numbers at AA and AAA. He had some good bullpen stints in the majors. From a production point of view, he should be the pick - easily.

[Scrap Irony]

He pitched better than Hotchkiss, the Red Pitching Prospect of the Year?

Than Correa and Corcino?

LeCure gave up more hits than IP and walked an average of 4.7 per 9 IP. That equals out to 75 runners on base in less than 50 innings. His K rate is alright (6.9), but his K/BB is bad (1.48). His FIP was 5.04.

That's the definition of smoke and mirrors.

Sure, his minor league numbers are solid. So were Elizardo Ramirez's 2007 numbers (3.74 ERA in 12 G), so what?

Sam LeCure is who he is-- he's Jose Acevedo (5.09 FIP in his debut season) and countless other 5th staters to be trotted out only by die-hard Red fans and Mike De La Hoz decades later.

[dougdirt]

Scrap, I think you are slightly underselling LeCure. Numerically, he seems like the guys you keep bringing up, but stuff wise, I think he is a little bit ahead of those guys. With that said, I won't be voting for him for a while.

[Kc61]

In six minor league seasons, LeCure has a 47-36 W-L record, a 3.77 ERA, a 7.9 K rate, and a 3.0 walk rate.

This includes all levels, through AAA.

I don't think the Reds' A-ball pitchers, or even AA pitchers, have demonstrated as much from a production point of view.

Some may have higher ceilings, but LeCure has been a very solid and productive pitcher in the minor leagues.

[757690]

Bird in hand, for LeCure, imo.

I know he will be a productive MLB pitcher barring injury.

I wouldn't be surprised (upset, yes, but not surprised) if the Reds received zero production at the major league level from everyone else on the list.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by 757690

Bird in hand, for LeCure, imo.

I know he will be a productive MLB pitcher barring injury.

I wouldn't be surprised (upset, yes, but not surprised) if the Reds received zero production at the major league level from everyone else on the list.

Sure, you can look at it that way. I can't knock you for doing that. However, I look at this list as who the most valuable prospects are, not who the best player is right now and who has the highest floor. Would you be happy if the Reds traded Torreyes or Arias or Duran for Lecure? I know I would be pissed. Sure Lecure may be slightly above replacement level right now, but Torreyes, Arias and Duran all have the possibility of being above average major leaguers. Surely, at least one of them will not reach that level, but I think at some point you have to consider full value and not just their floors.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Sure, you can look at it that way. I can't knock you for doing that. However, I look at this list as who the most valuable prospects are, not who the best player is right now and who has the highest floor. Would you be happy if the Reds traded Torreyes or Arias or Duran for Lecure? I know I would be pissed. Sure Lecure may be slightly above replacement level right now, but Torreyes, Arias and Duran all have the possibility of being above average major leaguers. Surely, at least one of them will not reach that level, but I think at some point you have to consider full value and not just their floors.

If the Reds traded for a LeCure type and gave up a Torreyes type, I would be fine with it. The other two guys, not as much. Arias has a ton more value IMO than Duran or Torreyes.

[757690]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Sure, you can look at it that way. I can't knock you for doing that. However, I look at this list as who the most valuable prospects are, not who the best player is right now and who has the highest floor. Would you be happy if the Reds traded Torreyes or Arias or Duran for Lecure? I know I would be pissed. Sure Lecure may be slightly above replacement level right now, but Torreyes, Arias and Duran all have the possibility of being above average major leaguers. Surely, at least one of them will not reach that level, but I think at some point you have to consider full value and not just their floors.

If the Reds traded prospect like Duran for LeCure 100 times, I would imagine that the trades would overall work out around even.

Basically, you would get slightly above replacement level production for a few years, 100 times. And with Duran like prospects, you would get nothing around 50 times, around or slightly above replacement level production around 20 times, around league average production around 20 times, and above league average production around 10 times.

I'm not doing the math, but I think it would work out to be around even overall.