2011 zips projection - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

dfs · 11-30-2010, 03:26 PM

I didn't see any comment. Perhaps with the holidays, I missed it.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban.

Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that?

No way does Edmonds reach that projection in terms of playing time or in terms of rates.

*BaseClogger* · 11-30-2010, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dfs

Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban.

Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that?

These projections are based purely on quantitative results, so a guy like Alonso who has been hampered by injuries and is getting attention because of his tools is not going to come out ahead of a guy like Dorn who most feel is a AAAA player.

Gotta love the Mesoraco, Wood, and Joseph projections though...

TRF · 11-30-2010, 03:59 PM

All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast.

RedsManRick · 11-30-2010, 04:17 PM

Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis.

Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate.

I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V.

edabbs44 · 11-30-2010, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TRF

All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast.

Plus, they are projecting that he does that as a righty. Imagine if they projected him hitting from the correct side of the plate?

MONSTER.

PS: Heisey vs LHP last year - .169/.242/.303

Small sample, but worth noting.

RedsManRick · 11-30-2010, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Plus, they are projecting that he does that as a righty. Imagine if they projected him hitting from the correct side of the plate?

MONSTER.

PS: Heisey vs LHP last year - .169/.242/.303

Small sample, but worth noting.

Re: Heisey's small sample, is it really worth noting? If we're going to estimate his true talent against LHP, what % of the estimate is made up of last year's performance? If it's less than 50% (and it's probably a lot less than 50%), doesn't it serve as more of a misleading distraction outside of the broader context of what we can expect from him?

His performance against lefties last year does count, but I'm not sure what citing only that performance -- even with a note about small sample size -- does to advance our understanding of the situation. Nothing on you edbabbs, I find myself doing this all the time. Just something that came to mind.

Roy Tucker · 11-30-2010, 06:07 PM

I do like the acronym ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events).

Well done.

camisadelgolf · 11-30-2010, 06:17 PM

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...cdowod01.shtml

Scrap Irony · 11-30-2010, 06:30 PM

The projected 660 OPS (78 OPS+) for Janish is troubling at the moment, though Cozart's OPS of 680 (82 OPS+) isn't much better. I'd like to see someone else brought in at SS, for sure. The 100 OPS+ LF number (around 100 from everyone likely to play there, with the exception of a questionable Edmonds) looks pretty poor, too.

If projections can be believed, the Red's main offensive starters should be above average overall, though it won't lead the league again.

kpresidente · 11-30-2010, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Re: Heisey's small sample, is it really worth noting? If we're going to estimate his true talent against LHP, what % of the estimate is made up of last year's performance? If it's less than 50% (and it's probably a lot less than 50%), doesn't it serve as more of a misleading distraction outside of the broader context of what we can expect from him?

Well, he didn't hit lefties in the minors very well, either.

RedsManRick · 11-30-2010, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kpresidente

Well, he didn't hit lefties in the minors very well, either.

That's fine, but then that should have been the point -- that he simply doesn't hit lefties well. Citing the 2010 data simply distracted from that.

MWM · 11-30-2010, 08:25 PM

I realize these are all quantitative, but I have a hard time believing Jay Bruce will go backwards in OBP while remaining flat slugging. I can't imagine he goes backwards next year.

edabbs44 · 11-30-2010, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

That's fine, but then that should have been the point -- that he simply doesn't hit lefties well. Citing the 2010 data simply distracted from that.

I wasn't the one who automatically assumed that he should be the short side of the platoon just because he is a righty. Isn't that worse than using 100 or so major league PAs as a basis for reason?

Not a big deal either way, but after seeing Votto struggle vs LHPs in the minors and then mash in the majors, I wonder how valuable those minor league splits really are.

Griffey012 · 12-01-2010, 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MWM

I realize these are all quantitative, but I have a hard time believing Jay Bruce will go backwards in OBP while remaining flat slugging. I can't imagine he goes backwards next year.

I am expecting the arrival of Jay Bruce in 2011. Much like the Jay Bruce we saw late in the season in 2010.

edabbs44 · 12-09-2010, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis.

Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate.

I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V.

11-30-2010, 03:26 PM	#1
dfs Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,419	2011 zips projection I didn't see any comment. Perhaps with the holidays, I missed it. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/ Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban. Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that? No way does Edmonds reach that projection in terms of playing time or in terms of rates. __________________ "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

11-30-2010, 03:59 PM	#3
TRF Vavasor Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: Amarillo, TX Posts: 12,672	Re: 2011 zips projection All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast. __________________ "don't end up with a grandson with a dog collar."

11-30-2010, 04:17 PM	#4
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,915	Re: 2011 zips projection Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis. Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate. I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

11-30-2010, 06:07 PM	#7
Roy Tucker Be the ball Join Date: May 2001 Location: Mason, OH Posts: 11,120	Re: 2011 zips projection I do like the acronym ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events). Well done. __________________ "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act but a habit."

11-30-2010, 06:17 PM	#8
camisadelgolf Vampire Weekend @Bernie's Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 11,311	Re: 2011 zips projection http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...cdowod01.shtml

11-30-2010, 06:30 PM	#9
Scrap Irony Member Join Date: May 2000 Location: Bedford, KY Posts: 8,992	Re: 2011 zips projection The projected 660 OPS (78 OPS+) for Janish is troubling at the moment, though Cozart's OPS of 680 (82 OPS+) isn't much better. I'd like to see someone else brought in at SS, for sure. The 100 OPS+ LF number (around 100 from everyone likely to play there, with the exception of a questionable Edmonds) looks pretty poor, too. If projections can be believed, the Red's main offensive starters should be above average overall, though it won't lead the league again. __________________ "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat." -- Christy Matthewson "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot." -- Leo Durocher

11-30-2010, 08:25 PM	#12
MWM Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 12,171	Re: 2011 zips projection I realize these are all quantitative, but I have a hard time believing Jay Bruce will go backwards in OBP while remaining flat slugging. I can't imagine he goes backwards next year. __________________ Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode