Reds fielding calls about Alonso

[pedro]

I think the Reds will keep Alonso this year and if he does well they'll trade Votto next off season.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22

Could just be a play by WJ to up the asking price somewhat. If teams think Alonso is completely unneeded, then they will only want to pay pennies on the dollar. BCast seems pretty adamant about signing Votto.

Yes!

If teams sense there's no reason to keep Alonso, it lowers the leverage a bit. By floating the idea that Votto may not be able to be signed, it increases the asking price.

[REDREAD]

My thought is that a GM calling Walt about Alonso doesn't really care if the Reds have Votto or not. I think this idea that other GMs think they will get a discount by trading for a prospect that is blocked by a vet is way overplayed. Look at it this way.. Say that hypothetically, something over the winter ends Votto's career.. Would opposing GMs suddenly offer more for Alonso? I don't think so. They are willing to pay X for Alonso, whether the Reds have one 1b or 100 queued up. They know the Reds can easily park Alonso at AAA next season. There's no urgency to trade him.

I agree that it's silly to hang on to Alonso as insurance in case Votto leaves, unless Walt feels that Votto is definitely gone after next year. I think Walt is just being honest. I agree that it's questionable whether the Reds will be able to sign Votto long term or not.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

My thought is that a GM calling Walt about Alonso doesn't really care if the Reds have Votto or not. I think this idea that other GMs think they will get a discount by trading for a prospect that is blocked by a vet is way overplayed. Look at it this way.. Say that hypothetically, something over the winter ends Votto's career.. Would opposing GMs suddenly offer more for Alonso? I don't think so. They are willing to pay X for Alonso, whether the Reds have one 1b or 100 queued up. They know the Reds can easily park Alonso at AAA next season. There's no urgency to trade him.

I agree that it's silly to hang on to Alonso as insurance in case Votto leaves, unless Walt feels that Votto is definitely gone after next year. I think Walt is just being honest. I agree that it's questionable whether the Reds will be able to sign Votto long term or not.

I think there's always going to be someone that will pay a little more than they ordinarily would if they want someone bad enough. Votto's situation won't change what clubs value Alonso at, certainly, but if the other club can maintain leverage and not having their hand forced, they can reasonably ask for more from clubs and perhaps get it.

[mdccclxix]

Just move Alonso to 1st and Votto to LF already

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Once Votto signs, Alonso's value tanks -- but once Alonso is dealt, Votto's asking price probably increases.

Good point. And WJ definitely has a history of keeping his options open.

I saw on Twitter earlier a good quote from Dusty re: Votto. Something along the lines of "Votto likes it here, he's just not ready to say he wants to be here forever".

Regarding Alonso, even with Votto not signed long term, 3 years of control is a long time. Holding up Alonso as a high valued insurance policy probably doesn't hold too much sway and still leaves him worth less to the Reds than to a team that would have him in the majors tomorrow. Finding a pair of teams who value him as a starter in the majors to bid against each other is probably the best way to get full value.

[mdccclxix]

When asked whether his reception to inquiries about Yonder Alonso are affected by Votto's status...

"I think right now, Yonder is a guy that still figures in the organization," Jocketty said. "It gives us protection. He believes that he's working this winter to come in and compete for a spot on the bench next year to play some first and left field and be a left-handed hitter off the bench."

from Mark Sheldon http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archi...gs_update.html

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by pedro

I think the Reds will keep Alonso this year and if he does well they'll trade Votto next off season.

I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

I agree. I like Votto a lot but with what he'll likely command salary wise I think it just might be too big a risk with the Reds assumed payroll limitations. Votto with 2 years left pre-free agency would likely bring back a hefty return. Not sure the Reds could afford to turn that down should the right offer come along.

[mdccclxix]

Wouldn't Votto, being the shrewd guy he is, see the value in showing he can play LF? Arrr.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Wouldn't Votto, being the shrewd guy he is, see the value in showing he can play LF? Arrr.

He's the reigning NL MVP, and teams have no hang-ups about handing over $100+ million dollar contracts to first basemen who put up MVP numbers (paging Mr. Pujols and Mr. Howard).

He doesn't need to do a thing to increase his value, right now, other than continue hit the baseball hard.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

Look for the Bruce deal to be around 6 years and not four. Wouldn't make a lot of sense for them to sign him to a 4 year deal since he is already under their control for that many more years.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

He's the reigning NL MVP, and teams have no hang-ups about handing over $100+ million dollar contracts to first basemen who put up MVP numbers (paging Mr. Pujols and Mr. Howard).

He doesn't need to do a thing to increase his value, right now, other than continue hit the baseball hard.

Very True.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

I get the logic, but when, in this scenario, do the Reds take a shot at actually winning the whole sha-bang. Sounds like a way to ensure a low 80s win total for several years and to avoid another string of losing seasons for several years, but they need to go all in to become a 95 win team that is considered a serious WS threat IMO.

[Orenda]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Wouldn't Votto, being the shrewd guy he is, see the value in showing he can play LF? Arrr.

i can't tell if your being sarcastic or not but I would agree with that if he could be at least an average lf defensively. There are a lot of big name 1 sackers out there, many of whom occupy spots on possible big market destinations already. The list of left fielders who can post the type of offensive numbers Votto is capable of is a much shorter list.

Although I wonder which position increases risk of injury more 1b or lf...my guess would be left field.