Reds fielding calls about Alonso

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Orenda

i can't tell if your being sarcastic or not but I would agree with that if he could be at least an average lf defensively. There are a lot of big name 1 sackers out there, many of whom occupy spots on possible big market destinations already. The list of left fielders who can post the type of offensive numbers Votto is capable of is a much shorter list.

Although I wonder which position increases risk of injury more 1b or lf...my guess would be left field.

I'm serious about it. I wish he was willing to move to LF, but I think he has no reason to try if he's comfortable at first. His value could increase like you say, and like I originally thought, but it's hard to see his value much higher these days anyway. If I were Votto, I'd try LF simply because you're one step further from the door when you're older. Adam Dunn never wanted to be a 1b because, boom, now he's a 1b/DH the very next year. He'll likely struggle to get his next deal beyond 1 year 4million. Just my take on it.

[mdccclxix]

Interesting that Walt is at least paying lip service to Alonso in LF next year, ostensibly platooning with Gomes. I would love to see that come true!

[mth123]

Originally Posted by TheNext44

.289/.386/.477

.291/.368/.458

First line is Votto's minor league career slash line.

Second is Alonso's minor league career slash line.

Alonso's includes a serious hand injury for most of it.

Even their AAA numbers are similar.

My only point is that shouldn't act like we know that Alonso will be a generic, easy to find 1B. Everyone said the same thing about Votto when he was coming up. Votto too was considered the Reds most tradable asset.

But a lot of Minor League 1B put up strong numbers. For every one that ends up like Votto, about a dozen become Sean Casey and about 1000 become Brad Eldred. The whole point is that assuming Alonso is going to become any more than run of the mill as 1B go is a longshot assumption. Why pass on dealing him for a chance to put the team over the top? Run of the Mill 1B are obtainable every year. IF he hits the Votto Lotto and becomes an MVP caliber guy so be it.

...Or, they could hang onto him and those gaudy (but really not so gaudy at this point) numbers could qualify him as the next Roberto Petagine. If the Reds were far away from winning or it was a harder to acquire position the math changes, but no real need to hold onto a 1B prospect who is far from a sure thing as far as becoming elite goes if dealing him gets the Reds closer to the big prize.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by mth123

But a lot of Minor League 1B put up strong numbers. For every one that ends up like Votto, about a dozen become Sean Casey and about 1000 become Brad Eldred. The whole point is that assuming Alonso is going to become any more than run of the mill as 1B go is a longshot assumption. Why pass on dealing him for a chance to put the team over the top? Run of the Mill 1B are obtainable every year. IF he hits the Votto Lotto and becomes an MVP caliber guy so be it.

...Or, they could hang onto him and those gaudy (but really not so gaudy at this point) numbers could qualify him as the next Roberto Petagine. If the Reds were far away from winning or it was a harder to acquire position the math changes, but no real need to hold onto a 1B prospect who is far from a sure thing as far as becoming elite goes if dealing him gets the Reds closer to the big prize.

I agree, if it's for a clear upgrade, why not trade him now. But as I see it, we may be in a position with an Alonso / Gomes platoon where LF is .300 / .370 / .475 type of slash. It would be hard to replace that with Alonso alone, although there is much depth elsewhere to be dealt from as well. I may like to see this play out in LF, although something tells me Walt is paying lip service to the idea. They went to great lengths NOT to give Alonso a start in LF last year.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I think if you asked Walt (secretly) what he'd want to play out -- other than the obvious "everyone signs for reasonable terms and we throw a pizza and ice cream party to celebrate" -- it would look a lot like the following:

1. The team signs Bruce to a 4-6 year deal this offseason.
2. Votto, Bruce and Alonso all have monster years in 2011.
3. Votto is shipped to one of the coasts for prospects in the 2011 off-season, and Alonso takes over at 1B.

I don't think shipping off Votto for prospects is ever going to be something Jocketty "wants." It's not his style. More likely that #3 reads "Votto re-signs, since the Reds figure they'll be able to afford him after winning the 2011 World Series."

[mth123]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I agree, if it's for a clear upgrade, why not trade him now. But as I see it, we may be in a position with an Alonso / Gomes platoon where LF is .300 / .370 / .475 type of slash. It would be hard to replace that with Alonso alone, although there is much depth elsewhere to be dealt from as well. I may like to see this play out in LF, although something tells me Walt is paying lip service to the idea. They went to great lengths NOT to give Alonso a start in LF last year.

I think you are more likely to see a statue of Adam Dunn, a nearly crippled Ken Griffey Jr or Ed Roush's corpse playing LF than Alonso. The Reds made it pretty clear last season that he's not really an option (Francisco either for that matter).

If there was any chance that Alonso and Votto could be on the field at the same time, I'd be totally against dealing him and ready to hand him a starting spot. Given the message that the Reds sent last year, the team should be looking to deal Alonso.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mth123

I get the logic, but when, in this scenario, do the Reds take a shot at actually winning the whole sha-bang. Sounds like a way to ensure a low 80s win total for several years and to avoid another string of losing seasons for several years, but they need to go all in to become a 95 win team that is considered a serious WS threat IMO.

Which, IMO, is exactly why Yonder Alonso is NOT an insurance policy for Joey Votto. I think if the Reds ever give consideration to dealing Votto, it is after the 2012 season, not 2011. They have at least a 2 year window to compete now.

It is a complete waste of resources to have Yonder waiting around until then (2013 season), and therefore he should be traded in the next few months. They need to substantially upgrade at least one of LF, SS, and/or SP#1 if they are going to seriously contend for a World Series title next season. Otherwise, we are looking at another good but not great team, unless literally everything goes right.

[pedro]

I'm not convinced that Alonso has all that much trade value right now. A big year at AAA could change that.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by pedro

I'm not convinced that Alonso has all that much trade value right now. A big year at AAA could change that.

That's fine. My point is that either way, he should be traded- whether it's now or 6 months from now (after he mashes in AAA). If you keep him around until/if Votto leaves town 2+ years from now, you are wasting valuable resources at a time when you can least afford to (ie your window to compete).

[MikeS21]

The thing about Alonso is that you really don't know what you have. Will he turn out to be Sean Casey, or a Paul Konerko with a little higher OBP? The wrist injury probably won't be 100% until next year. Right now, its too soon to tell.

Someone mentioned an intriguing idea earlier: Grandal. If Mes is for real, Grandal could be looking at a position change. 1B may be an option.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by Benihana

That's fine. My point is that either way, he should be traded- whether it's now or 6 months from now (after he mashes in AAA). If you keep him around until/if Votto leaves town 2+ years from now, you are wasting valuable resources at a time when you can least afford to (ie your window to compete).

I wouldn't hold onto Alonso more than a year if he doesn't end up replacing Votto or playing LF.

[kpresidente]

I think WJ has the right approach. Votto might have more trade value than any player in baseball, while trading Alonso is selling low. If he has a strong year in AAA, and at the same time it becomes evident that Votto's looking for big money, I'd have no problem moving Votto as soon as next season. The fact that he'd have a couple years left before FA will only up his trade-value even more, because it means more teams could be in on the sweepstakes. And the haul you could get for him, combined with the other young talent we have, could assure that we're in the hunt for the next 6-7 years.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by Dan

Votto has 3 years before he reaches free agency. That's a lifetime in terms of baseball contracts, etc. To hold onto Alonso now because of what might happen 3 years down the road is extremely foolish. I'm guessing, like others, that this is to drum up a market for Alonso more than anything.

Especially considering the position is 1B which should be fairly easy to fill. You hold onto Votto until the last possible moment. The only reason to hold onto Alonso is if you are considering a deal for Votto in the next year.

This franchise's draft and foreign player acquisiton needs to put a very solid emphasis on corner power bats. It is an essential area that this franchise has neglected for way too long.

[TheNext44]

1B might be an easy position to fill, but an MVP winning 1.000+ OPS hitter is not.

[kpresidente]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Walt's in a fascinating game here where Alonso is his best chip against Votto (if they don't work out a deal with Votto, they can go year-to-year and then ship him someplace next year and install Alonso at first), but Votto is also the best chip Walt has against other team's for Alonso (as long as a deal ISN'T in place, Alonso still has perceived value to the club).

Once Votto signs, Alonso's value tanks -- but once Alonso is dealt, Votto's asking price probably increases.

That only works if you've got one bidder. If multiple teams are interested, it won't matter that much how desperate the Reds are to make a move, they're bidding against each other.