Projecting Janish

[RedsManRick]

There has been some spirited debate in the Jose Reyes thread about how much production we should expect from Janish given the full-time gig. My position is possibly the most optimistic of anybody's I've seen. But I'm curious just how out of line I am with the RedsZone consensus.

So, given the full-time job and assuming he keeps it (140+ games, 600+ PA), what level of production should we expect from Janish. No explanation is needed, but certainly feel free...

[pedro]

.235/.305/.340

[TRF]

.250 .350 .390 .740

And he'll get many presents from his pitching staff.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by pedro

.235/.305/.340

I'm in that neighborhood too.

[Griffey012]

I actually voted more than 2 wins, I have not been the biggest Janish supporter, but I have definitely seen the strides he has made offensively. When he came up in '08 he was awful offensively, in '09 he was bad but improved from '08. Last year he had made some clear strides in his overall strength and had a nice improvement offensively.

If he plays 130 games, I would expect about a .250/.325/.375. Somewhere around 8-10 HR's and great defense. I am thinking he will finish around 2.5 WAR.

[Scrap Irony]

1.5 WAR.

He struggles mightily with the bat, while his glove is solidly above average, but not elite. As a #8 hitter, he's below average. As a SS, he's below average.

But, hey, he's cheap.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by TRF

.250 .350 .390 .740

And he'll get many presents from his pitching staff.

I have a real hard time accepting even the remote possibility that Janish could have an OBP of .350. I just don't see any evidence in his statistical history that would lead anyone to believe that's a possibility.

I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.

[Edd Roush]

I think he will go 260/330/350

[remdog]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

1.5 WAR.

He struggles mightily with the bat, while his glove is solidly above average, but not elite. As a #8 hitter, he's below average. As a SS, he's below average.

But, hey, he's cheap.

That pretty much sums it up for me too. Although, I have to admit, I think his glove is just marginly above average. If he played for the Cardinals he'd be batting ninth. If he had played for the Cardinals in 2010 he'd be on the same bus to Seattle as Brendan Ryan.

Rem

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by westofyou

I'm in that neighborhood too.

Ditto.. Maybe slightly higher average. His D is what the Reds are in love with. I don't think they care about his offense. I do on the other hand. When Stubbs was near the mandoza line.. I thought Heisey should of gotten some starts. I think this club could potentially put together a package for a Jose Reyes. I think you solve issues at lead off and at SS.

I would propose:

CoCo Cordero, Homer Bailey, Logan Ondrusek, Zack Cozart & Todd Frazier to the Mets
Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez, & Cash to the Reds

Masset or Chapman become Closer
Reyes Leadsoff and is your starting SS
Perez is Long Relief or Situational

Mets get a Closer and a Set-up man
Bailey gives them a power arm to the rotation
Mets also get a young group up the middle with Cozart and Frazier

[remdog]

Everytime I see Janish on the field I get flashbacks of Darrel Chaney and Woody Woodward.

Rem

[indy_dave00]

.242, .288, .333

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

Ditto.. Maybe slightly higher average. His D is what the Reds are in love with. I don't think they care about his offense. I do on the other hand. When Stubbs was near the mandoza line.. I thought Heisey should of gotten some starts. I think this club could potentially put together a package for a Jose Reyes. I think you solve issues at lead off and at SS.

I would propose:

CoCo Cordero, Homer Bailey, Logan Ondrusek, Zack Cozart & Todd Frazier to the Mets
Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez, & Cash to the Reds

Masset or Chapman become Closer
Reyes Leadsoff and is your starting SS
Perez is Long Relief or Situational

Mets get a Closer and a Set-up man
Bailey gives them a power arm to the rotation
Mets also get a young group up the middle with Cozart and Frazier

We better be getting a payroll's worth of cash back from the Mets.
Reyes is making $11M in 2011. Perez is due $12M in 2011. They are both set to become free agents after the 2011 season. And you're willing to give up young, cheap players like Bailey, Ondrusek, Cozart, and Frazier for that? No thanks.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by pedro

I have a real hard time accepting even the remote possibility that Janish could have an OBP of .350. I just don't see any evidence in his statistical history that would lead anyone to believe that's a possibility.

I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.

His minor league career OBP was .351. He put up a .338 OBP last year. I would call that "statistical evidence that it's a possibility". Not a likelihood by any stretch, but certainly in the realm of possibility.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

His minor league career OBP was .351. He put up a .338 OBP last year. I would call that "statistical evidence that it's a possibility". Not a likelihood by any stretch, but certainly in the realm of possibility.

It was also .306 in AAA and is at .308 for his major league career.

Not all evidence is created equal. Just because I guy is able to draw some walks and get some isolated plate discipline against inferior pitching doesn't mean that will translate against the big boys.