Who is Redszone's #38 prospect?

[camisadelgolf]

Prospect #1 - Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Prospect #2 - Devin Mesoraco, C
Prospect #3 - Yorman Rodriguez, CF
Prospect #4 - Yonder Alonso, 1B
Prospect #5 - Billy Hamilton, SS
Prospect #6 - Yasmani Grandal, C
Prospect #7 - Todd Frazier, IF/OF
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco, 3B
Prospect #9 - Zack Cozart, SS
Prospect #10 - David Sappelt, CF
Prospect #11 - Donnie Joseph, LHP
Prospect #12 - Ismael Guillon, LHP
Prospect #13 - Brad Boxberger, RHP
Prospect #14 - Chris Valaika, IF
Prospect #15 - Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
Prospect #16 - Ryan LaMarre, OF
Prospect #17 - Juan Duran, OF
Prospect #18 - Junior Arias, SS
Prospect #19 - Sam Lecure, RHP
Prospect #20 - Ronald Torreyes, IF
Prospect #21 - Neftali Soto, IF
Prospect #22 - Jonathan Correa, RHP
Prospect #23 - Danny Dorn, 1B/OF
Prospect #24 - Henry Rodriguez, IF
Prospect #25 - Kris Negron, IF
Prospect #26 - Daryl Thompson, RHP
Prospect #27 - Didi Gregorius, SS
Prospect #28 - Drew Cisco, RHP
Prospect #29 - Cody Puckett, IF/OF
Prospect #30 - Dan Corcino, RHP
Prospect #31 - Phil Valiquette, LHP
Prospect #32 - Felix Perez, OF
Prospect #33 - Jake Johnson, RHP
Prospect #34 - Mark Fleury, C
Prospect #35 - Tucker Barnhart, C
Prospect #36 - Jeremy Horst, LHP
Prospect #37 - Kyle Waldrop, OF

[marcshoe]

I don't like any of the choices.

edit--okay, I like these better.

I guess I jumped the gun a bit. There was no poll when I responded.

Anyway, Fairel again. I'm pretty impressed with the depth. I remember when the Reds had a low-A team in Charleston filled with guys who would never be heard from again.

[marcshoe]

btw, just noticed Scott Carrol on the list. I've always liked him, and that will make my next choice especially tough, what with Valor still around.

[dougdirt]

Scott Carroll. Good fastball that gets up to 95 as a starter, big groundball tendencies and solid control. I think he could be a legit bullpen helper soon.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Scott Carroll. Good fastball that gets up to 95 as a starter, big groundball tendencies and solid control. I think he could be a legit bullpen helper soon.

Do you have an explanation for the low K rate? That has always bothered me as it is typically a good predictor of ML success.

[mace]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

Do you have an explanation for the low K rate? That has always bothered me as it is typically a good predictor of ML success.

What bothers me is I saw him pitch once in Carolina last year, and he got battered. I mean, hit hard. Of course, that's only one game, and I shouldn't put too much stock in it. Then again, it's the only one I saw.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

Do you have an explanation for the low K rate? That has always bothered me as it is typically a good predictor of ML success.

He is a groundball pitcher, so he does pitch to contact as they say.

[mace]

OK, just for grins. First, the obligatory disclaimer that you can't judge or compare prospects strictly by the numbers. Agreed. But since that's the most accessible, objective information we have, I'll go ahead and submit the past two seasons of them (a reasonably pertinent sample, I'd think) for Carroll and Hotchkiss.

Scott Carroll. Age (this season) 26. RH. 6-foot-5, 210.
Last two years in A+ and AA:

IP 192.2 H 193 BB 46 K 96 K/9 4.49 WHIP 1.24 ERA 3.36

Jordan Hotchkiss. Age (this season) 25. RH. 6-foot-4, 220.
Last two years in A, A+ and AA:

IP 215.1 H 179 BB 56 K 176 K/9 7.36 WHIP 1.09 ERA 2.55

If I'm not mistaken, Carroll might have been coming off an injury in 2009. Or a suspension. I forget. He has been a starter throughout his career.

Hotchkiss has begun the past two seasons in the bullpen, then moved into the rotation. Of his 67 appearances over that time, he has started 23 games.

[camisadelgolf]

You're absolutely right, and to help keep thigs in perspective, there's good reason why Danny Dorn isn't one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Don't get me wrong--I don't think there's a huge gap in talent between Carroll and Hotchkiss--but using only numbers and ignoring everything else isn't a good way to compare their respective prospect statuses imho. And to iterate, this isn't a jab at mace because he's already made it clear that you can't make accurate judgments using only numbers.

Carroll has more velocity, better groundball tendencies, and is less of a gimmick since you could make the argument that Hotchkiss' arm angle accounts for some of his production. Carroll's success has also come against more advanced hitters while he was at a younger age.

And this is kind of a PSA for people who want to put a bunch of emphasis on numbers:
It's really not all that rare for a player to put up mediocre numbers in the minor and then put up good production in MLB. This is due to the fact that time in the minors is often spent to experiment with new things and discover what works and what doesn't. That's often what a team means when they say a player isn't 'ready'. Yeah, the player could be called up and probably counted on to produce, but what is probably better for certain players is to leave them in the minors to experiment and learn from mistakes so that they'll be more effective when they're finally called up to stay.

[mace]

I agree with all of that except the statement, "Carroll's success has also come against more advanced hitters while he was at a younger age." Carroll is actually a year and a half older than Hotchkiss, and they both finished last season in Carolina. Both pitched at Billings at age 22 and Dayton at age 23. Carroll did get to A+ a year younger than Hotchkiss, moving up to Sarasota for the second half of the season he started at Dayton. That's the only difference. Both arrived in AA at 24.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by mace

I agree with all of that except the statement, "Carroll's success has also come against more advanced hitters while he was at a younger age." Carroll is actually a year and a half older than Hotchkiss, and they both finished last season in Carolina. Both pitched at Billings at age 22 and Dayton at age 23. Carroll did get to A+ a year younger than Hotchkiss, moving up to Sarasota for the second half of the season he started at Dayton. That's the only difference. Both arrived in AA at 24.

Yeah, you're right. I was splitting hairs, but in essence, they've been nearly identical in those regards.

[RED VAN HOT]

So it seems to me that we are saying that Hotchkiss is a Billy Beane type prospect...there is little reason why he should continue to succeed, but since he does, who cares. Carroll, on the other hand, grades out better on a scouting basis. At this point, I must defer to those who are closer to the game. I remain skeptical, however. It will be interesting to follow the fortunes of these two over the next two years.

[marcshoe]

I'm switching my vote to Carroll next time for several reasons. He has good stuff, is well-suited for GABP, and maybe most importantly, his age and his ST invite say he could get his shot before long. I've always liked him, and it's nice to see his star ascending again after his troubles.

[urdun]

are we doing any more voting? it has been like a whole week almost since this poll started.

[RED VAN HOT]

Interest seem to be waning as ST approaches. Why don't we simply vote on the entire list and complete it out to 50. Let everyone voter cast 10 votes. If we end up with ties, so be it. It is not as if the future of the free world depends on getting the order right.