Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

[New Fever]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/

7.Aroldis Chapman
50.Billy Hamilton
64.Devin Mesoraco
73.Yonder Alonso

[757690]

Looks like they are overestimating Hamilton and underestimating Mesoraco and Alonso.

Mesoraco isn't even in their top 5 catching prospects. I guess they didn't believe last year was legit.

[dougdirt]

Worst part is, it seems they are lowering Alonso because of Votto. Talked about it in the chat. That is something I never believe in. He isn't any different of a player because he is blocked. If he were traded tomorrow to Colorado, would be be any better than he is right now? Of course not.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Worst part is, it seems they are lowering Alonso because of Votto. Talked about it in the chat. That is something I never believe in. He isn't any different of a player because he is blocked. If he were traded tomorrow to Colorado, would be be any better than he is right now? Of course not.

Kind of agree, but the fact that he is blocked lowers his value. He has less value to the Reds if they can't use him and less value as a trade chip if he's blocked and everyone knows it. The issue lowering his value is really his lack of positional versatility and the fact that he'd need to project as an elite hitter to be viewed much more than an interchangeable part. Teams know it and any return in a deal will reflect it.

If the LF thing works out, his value will skyrocket.

[Benihana]

Can't believe there was no mention of Yorman even in the chat. If Hamilton is #50, Y-Rod needs to at least be mentioned in the conversation for the Top 100.

Mesoraco should be higher, but BA (like me) doesn't like to admit mistakes.

Other than that, I have no major problems. Grandal as a fringe Top 100 guy and Alonso at 73 sound about right to me- at least so far. Like mth said, if the LF thing works, it will be another story.

[nmculbreth]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Worst part is, it seems they are lowering Alonso because of Votto. Talked about it in the chat. That is something I never believe in. He isn't any different of a player because he is blocked. If he were traded tomorrow to Colorado, would be be any better than he is right now? Of course not.

How much of it is because he is blocked by Votto and how much of it is because 1B is such a deep position league wide? I think the overall depth of the position hurts Alonso's value because frankly there just aren't a ton of teams looking to upgrade their 1B position and the lack of trade partners certainly impacts trade value.

As an aside I think Chapman is too low at 7. I can see the argument for taking Harper or Trout over him but outside of those two there isn't a single prospect on the list that I'd trade Chapman to get.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

Kind of agree, but the fact that he is blocked lowers his value. He has less value to the Reds if they can't use him and less value as a trade chip if he's blocked and everyone knows it. The issue lowering his value is really his lack of positional versatility and the fact that he'd need to project as an elite hitter to be viewed much more than an interchangeable part. Teams know it and any return in a deal will reflect it.

If the LF thing works out, his value will skyrocket.

A prospects value should be on what they could do as a major leaguer, not their trade value. He either is a major leaguers of X value right now or he isn't. The fact that he is blocked doesn't change his current ability or future ability to be a major league hitter.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

A prospects value should be on what they could do as a major leaguer, not their trade value. He either is a major leaguers of X value right now or he isn't. The fact that he is blocked doesn't change his current ability or future ability to be a major league hitter.

This is where we disagree. His value is based on how much he can contribute to his team winning. That doesn't make a poor player with a wide open position ahead of him a good prospect, but a guy like Alonso just doesn't have value to his team if he can't help them win on the field or be converted into some one else who could help. Isn't a player's value based on his ability to get on the field and perform? Alonso's lack of versatility is a huge obstacle to that and his bat hasn't shown enough yet to push the current player off the position. The fact that the guy is Joey Votto makes it tougher, but has Alonso done enough yet to suggest he could push Lyle Overbay or Adam Laroche off of 1B in another organization? I think Alonso can hit some. Pretty much every 1B can and a lot of minor leaguers who will be 1B can as well. I haven't seen the whole list yet, but I'd guess there are 6 or 7 1B ranked ahead of Alonso on the list (Belt, Freeman, Montero, Hosmer, Singleton, maybe Rizzo or Carter?). Add the established major leaguers to the mix and I have to wonder if Alonso is one of the 30 best 1B overall in the next few years. Thankfully, the DH Position expands the number of jobs available, but Alonso doesn't seem to be anythng speclal. Add some versatility to get him in the line-up more or have a monster year to nudge past the others and he'd move up. Its not like ranking him 73rd overall is an insult. But right now he's a blocked prospect. The fact that its Votto doing the blocking magnifies it, but he'd be blocked in most places.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

This is where we disagree. His value is based on how much he can contribute to his team winning. That doesn't make a poor player with a wide open position ahead of him a good prospect, but a guy like Alonso just doesn't have value to his team if he can't help them win on the field or be converted into some one else who could help. Isn't a player's value based on his ability to get on the field and perform? Alonso's lack of versatility is a huge obstacle to that and his bat hasn't shown enough yet to push the current player off the position. The fact that the guy is Joey Votto makes it tougher, but has Alonso done enough yet to suggest he could push Lyle Overbay or Adam Laroche off of 1B in another organization? I think Alonso can hit some. Pretty much every 1B can and a lot of minor leaguers who will be 1B can as well. I haven't seen the whole list yet, but I'd guess there are 6 or 7 1B ranked ahead of Alonso on the list (Belt, Freeman, Montero, Hosmer, Singleton, maybe Rizzo or Carter?). Add the established major leaguers to the mix and I have to wonder if Alonso is one of the 30 best 1B overall in the next few years. Thankfully, the DH Position expands the number of jobs available, but Alonso doesn't seem to be anythng speclal. Add some versatility to get him in the line-up more or have a monster year to nudge past the others and he'd move up. Its not like ranking him 73rd overall is an insult. But right now he's a blocked prospect. The fact that its Votto doing the blocking magnifies it, but he'd be blocked in most places.

Sorry, but this is just wrong. A players value is and should be based on what he could do if given the opportunity to play. Either he is capable of producing X/Y/Z or he isn't. Being stuck behind someone else doesn't change that.

As for Alonso himself, take out the year from the time he broke his hamate and the guy has absolutely obliterated the baseball to the tune of .327/.404/.549 since being drafted. If he didn't get hurt, he would be a top 20 prospect right now. He did get hurt though and like everyone who has a hamate injury, they suffer through the struggles to hit for about a year afterwards. He is going to be a very good hitter in the major leagues when he gets the chance.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

A prospects value should be on what they could do as a major leaguer, not their trade value. He either is a major leaguers of X value right now or he isn't. The fact that he is blocked doesn't change his current ability or future ability to be a major league hitter.

Disagree. You value a prospect not by what he could do, but what he could/will/might do when compared to others at his position.

When comparing Alonso's ceiling, floor, and likely production with with the 1B already in the major leagues, in the high minors who're likely to be in the league with him, or the "value" of said prospects below him, Alonso should be negged a bit for Votto's performance. It affects his "value" to the Reds (as a trade piece and as a major leaguer) and as a 1B overall.

[kpresidente]

Doug's right. I don't read BA's top-100 list to find out who's blocked. I don't need a scout for that, I can read a roster. I want to know how a prospect compares to a hypothetical standard for his position.

[lonewolf371]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Disagree. You value a prospect not by what he could do, but what he could/will/might do when compared to others at his position.

When comparing Alonso's ceiling, floor, and likely production with with the 1B already in the major leagues, in the high minors who're likely to be in the league with him, or the "value" of said prospects below him, Alonso should be negged a bit for Votto's performance. It affects his "value" to the Reds (as a trade piece and as a major leaguer) and as a 1B overall.

I think you're confusing trade value and prospect rankings. Yes, first basemen, even good ones, lack the type of trade value they would have if they had the same offensive numbers at another position. But when you do prospect rankings you're rating that player's ability to excel at his position in the majors, not his trade value.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Disagree. You value a prospect not by what he could do, but what he could/will/might do when compared to others at his position.

When comparing Alonso's ceiling, floor, and likely production with with the 1B already in the major leagues, in the high minors who're likely to be in the league with him, or the "value" of said prospects below him, Alonso should be negged a bit for Votto's performance. It affects his "value" to the Reds (as a trade piece and as a major leaguer) and as a 1B overall.

Sure, Joey Votto raises the "needed performance" bar a tad, but if Alonso were a Rockie Joey Votto would still do that. But, from what I can gather, if Alonso were a Rockie, his ranking would have been higher than it was because he is a Red and blocked. IMO, that isn't the correct way to look at things at all. I want to know who will be better between player A and player B if both are given the same chances.

[AtomicDumpling]

When I look at a prospect list I want to learn who the future stars are going to be. I don't think a player's talent level is reduced because he is blocked by a star player on the major league team. I think most of the published lists are based on a player's talent and skills -- not on their trade value.

[mth123]

OK. Lets forget about Alonso being blocked specifically in Cincy. How does he rank in the pecking order of 1B overall (since at this point its all we know he can do)? How high would he have to be to be valuable and not simply an interchangeable part? He's ranked #73. That seems to be saying he has some value IMO. Below is a list of 70 guys who will probably play some 1B in the major leagues over the next 5 years (hastily put together so lets not quibble over the order too much). The list excludes Alonso. Where would he rank? Remember that 1B is a position where bats go to finsih their careers so this list could exclude lots of guys who may also be ahead of Yonder. Guys like Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Guillen, Casey McGeehee, Ryan Braun and young guys like Nick Weglarz, Josh Vitters and Pedro Alvarez may also be raising the bar on this list.

1 Albert Pujols
2 Adrian Gonzalez
3 Joey Votto
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Mark Texiera
6 Prince Fielder
7 Ryan Howard
8 Kendry Morales
9 Justin Morneau
10 Billy Butler
11 Ike Davis
12 Carlos Lee
13 Eric Hosmer
14 Brandon Belt
15 Audrey Huff
16 Gaby Sanchez
17 Carlos Pena
18 Freddie Freeman
19 Adam Lind
20 Jesus Montero
21 Matt Laporta
22 Justin Smoak
23 Derek Norris
24 Logan Morrison
25 Chris Carter
26 Mike Napoli
27 Adam Laroche
28 Anthony Rizzo
29 Dayan Viciedo
30 Daric Barton
31 Jonathon Singleton
32 Mitch Moreland
33 Brett Wallace
34 Kyle Blanks
35 Juan Francisco
36 Bobby Borchering
37 Kila Kalahuie
38 Brad Hawpe
39 Russell Branyan
40 Lyle Overbay
41 Xavier Nady
42 James Loney
43 Matt Gamel
44 Andrew Lambo
45 Dan Johnson
46 Brandon Allen
47 Chris Davis
48 Lars Anderson
49 Nolan Arenado
50 Edwin Encarnacion
51 Mike Morse
52 Lucus Duda
53 Jake Fox
54 Juan Miranda
55 Paul Goldschmidt
56 Leslie Anderson
57 Casey Kotchman
58 Chris Marrero
59 Mark Trumbo
60 Brandon Snyder
61 Ryan Strieby
62 Neftali Soto
63 Pablo Sandoval
64 Lance Berkman
65 Kevin Youkilis
66 Paul Konerko
67 Adam Dunn
68 Luke Scott
69 Todd Helton
70 Derek Lee

Note: I've put guys who will probably fade away in a couple years or stick to DH or another spot at the bottom when they obviously should be much higher. Remember this is about the future.