Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

OK. Lets forget about Alonso being blocked specifically in Cincy. How does he rank in the pecking order of 1B overall (since at this point its all we know he can do)? How high would he have to be to be valuable and not simply an interchangeable part? He's ranked #73. That seems to be saying he has some value IMO. Below is a list of 70 guys who will probably play some 1B in the major leagues over the next 5 years (hastily put together so lets not quibble over the order too much). The list excludes Alonso. Where would he rank? Remember that 1B is a position where bats go to finsih their careers so this list could exclude lots of guys who may also be ahead of Yonder. Guys like Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Guillen, Casey McGeehee, Ryan Braun and young guys like Nick Weglarz, Josh Vitters and Pedro Alvarez may also be raising the bar on this list.

1 Albert Pujols
2 Adrian Gonzalez
3 Joey Votto
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Mark Texiera
6 Prince Fielder
7 Ryan Howard
8 Kendry Morales
9 Justin Morneau
10 Billy Butler
11 Ike Davis
12 Carlos Lee
13 Eric Hosmer
14 Brandon Belt
15 Audrey Huff
16 Gaby Sanchez
17 Carlos Pena
18 Freddie Freeman
19 Adam Lind
20 Jesus Montero
21 Matt Laporta
22 Justin Smoak
23 Derek Norris
24 Logan Morrison
25 Chris Carter
26 Mike Napoli
27 Adam Laroche
28 Anthony Rizzo
29 Dayan Viciedo
30 Daric Barton
31 Jonathon Singleton
32 Mitch Moreland
33 Brett Wallace
34 Kyle Blanks
35 Juan Francisco
36 Bobby Borchering
37 Kila Kalahuie
38 Brad Hawpe
39 Russell Branyan
40 Lyle Overbay
41 Xavier Nady
42 James Loney
43 Matt Gamel
44 Andrew Lambo
45 Dan Johnson
46 Brandon Allen
47 Chris Davis
48 Lars Anderson
49 Nolan Arenado
50 Edwin Encarnacion
51 Mike Morse
52 Lucus Duda
53 Jake Fox
54 Juan Miranda
55 Paul Goldschmidt
56 Leslie Anderson
57 Casey Kotchman
58 Chris Marrero
59 Mark Trumbo
60 Brandon Snyder
61 Ryan Strieby
62 Neftali Soto
63 Pablo Sandoval
64 Lance Berkman
65 Kevin Youkilis
66 Paul Konerko
67 Adam Dunn
68 Luke Scott
69 Todd Helton
70 Derek Lee

Note: I've put guys who will probably fade away in a couple years or stick to DH or another spot at the bottom when they obviously should be much higher. Remember this is about the future.

I bolded the ones I believe will be/are as good or better production wise than Yonder over the next 5 years or so strictly with the bat IF Yonder cuts down his swing a bit. There are a few I am on the fence about because I haven't studied them/their issues or lack thereof like Smoak, Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Kila K., Rizzo and Viciedo. But others are fading (ex. Helton) or haven't shown enough yet (Soto) or I have seen enough and am not overly impressed (Butler, Ike Davis, Loney, Sandoval, Kotchman, Edwin) or not impressed at all (Francisco, Chris Davis, Brett Wallace, B. Allen, Borchering, Blanks). There are also some of those guys I don't know at all like Goldschmidt, Streiby, Trumbo.

Bottom line I would rate Alonso as a top 15-20 1B in all of pro ball right now because I believe he can hit for power, average & discipline with a bit of coaching. In fact I despise the fact the people want to pigeon hole the guy into a Sean Casey type of mold because he hasn't hit for tons of power in the minors...yet. I will blame all of that on his hand injury and assuming health I do expect him to hit for lots of power in Louisville this season, then the "experts" will give him a fast ascension up the ranks come mid season/late season.

The only question for me is can that translate to the bigs and none of these other big name prospects have proven that yet either. So until there is some seperation I will put him on the list if not near the top of it when it comes to minor league 1B prospects.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I bolded the ones I believe will be/are as good or better production wise than Yonder over the next 5 years or so strictly with the bat IF Yonder cuts down his swing a bit. There are a few I am on the fence about because I haven't studied them/their issues or lack thereof like Smoak, Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Kila K., Rizzo and Viciedo. But others are fading (ex. Helton) or haven't shown enough yet (Soto) or I have seen enough and am not overly impressed (Butler, Ike Davis, Loney, Sandoval, Kotchman, Edwin) or not impressed at all (Francisco, Chris Davis, Brett Wallace, B. Allen, Borchering, Blanks). There are also some of those guys I don't know at all like Goldschmidt, Streiby, Trumbo.

Bottom line I would rate Alonso as a top 15-20 1B in all of pro ball right now because I believe he can hit for power, average & discipline with a bit of coaching. In fact I despise the fact the people want to pigeon hole the guy into a Sean Casey type of mold because he hasn't hit for tons of power in the minors...yet. I will blame all of that on his hand injury and assuming health I do expect him to hit for lots of power in Louisville this season, then the "experts" will give him a fast ascension up the ranks come mid season/late season.

The only question for me is can that translate to the bigs and none of these other big name prospects have proven that yet either. So until there is some seperation I will put him on the list if not near the top of it when it comes to minor league 1B prospects.

I think 15 to 20 is probably real close. So he's on the lower end of the middle range of starting caliber guys. Seems that 73rd best prospect in baseball is about right. There are lots of guys that you don't have bolded who are pretty close. I could argue that he's in the 20s somewhere, but the point doesn't change much. At some point, he becomes an interchangeable part (he's probably better than that and its why he's in the top 100 prospects). But guys who project to be pretty decent hitters like Brandon Allen and Lars Anderson probably don't have much more than journeyman careers as back-ups or stopgap starters on rebuilding teams. Guys like Lyle Overbay, Adam Laroche and James Loney are players that he's not really a lock to be better than and those are guys teams are continually looking to upgrade from.

It means he's not an All Star. He's not an MVP threat. He's not even in the top half of his position and there are dozens of alternatives who may not be much of a drop-off. How can we quibble with being the 73rd best prospect?

BTW, I'd probably slide him in at 23 on this list.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mth123

I think 15 to 20 is probably real close. So he's on the lower end of the middle range of starting caliber guys. Seems that 73rd best prospect in baseball is about right. There are lots of guys that you don't have bolded who are pretty close. I could argue that he's in the 20s somewhere, but the point doesn't change much. At some point, he becomes an interchangeable part (he's probably better than that and its why he's in the top 100 prospects). But guys who project to be pretty decent hitters like Brandon Allen and Lars Anderson probably don't have much more than journeyman careers as back-ups or stopgap starters on rebuilding teams. Guys like Lyle Overbay, Adam Laroche and James Loney are players that he's not really a lock to be better than and those are guys teams are continually looking to upgrade from.

It means he's not an All Star. He's not an MVP threat. He's not even in the top half of his position and there are dozens of alternatives who may not be much of a drop-off. How can we quibble with being the 73rd best prospect?

BTW, I'd probably slide him in at 23 on this list.

I guess it just depends on how he develops but I think he could be as good as anyone on the list short of maybe your top 4.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I guess it just depends on how he develops but I think he could be as good as anyone on the list short of maybe your top 4.

Yeah.... again, this is a guy, who when fully healthy has hit .327/.404/.549 since being drafted. I continue to say, people have let his injury REALLY affect how they think about him. When he was drafted, there was talk that he was a .300/.400/.500 hitter waiting to happen. Then he comes darn close in the FSL to doing just that. Heads to AA and breaks his hamate bone. After the one year mark of the injury he goes out and hits .347/.421/.592 in AAA over 200+ at bats.

Yes, he really struggled for a while to hit when he came back from a broken hamate bone. Who doesn't? It saps a guys power, that is a well known thing. During the futures game this past season, Alonso was among the few who really impressed scouts with his power. I don't know, I just think people are allowing injury and recovery to block what the guy has done while healthy, which is absolutely murder the ball.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Yeah.... again, this is a guy, who when fully healthy has hit .327/.404/.549 since being drafted. I continue to say, people have let his injury REALLY affect how they think about him. When he was drafted, there was talk that he was a .300/.400/.500 hitter waiting to happen. Then he comes darn close in the FSL to doing just that. Heads to AA and breaks his hamate bone. After the one year mark of the injury he goes out and hits .347/.421/.592 in AAA over 200+ at bats.

Yes, he really struggled for a while to hit when he came back from a broken hamate bone. Who doesn't? It saps a guys power, that is a well known thing. During the futures game this past season, Alonso was among the few who really impressed scouts with his power. I don't know, I just think people are allowing injury and recovery to block what the guy has done while healthy, which is absolutely murder the ball.

These guys are 1B. They almost all hit. Brandon Allen with a .935 OPS in 697 AAA PAs., Mark Trumbo .945 OPS in 595 AAA PAs, Lucas Duda .999 OPS in 298 AAA PAs, Juan Francisco with a .911 OPS in 428 AAA PAs. Heck Danny Dorn has an OPS of .859 in 715 AAA PAs and can't even crack the 40 man roster or interest anyone in Rule 5. These guys can hit. It takes a lot to be a standout. Being ranked in the top 100 seems like pretty good recognition considering the high standards at his only position.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

These guys are 1B. They almost all hit. Brandon Allen with a .935 OPS in 697 AAA PAs., Mark Trumbo .945 OPS in 595 AAA PAs, Lucas Duda .999 OPS in 298 AAA PAs, Juan Francisco with a .911 OPS in 428 AAA PAs. Heck Danny Dorn has an OPS of .859 in 715 AAA PAs and can't even crack the 40 man roster or interest anyone in Rule 5. These guys can hit. It takes a lot to be a standout. Being ranked in the top 100 seems like pretty good recognition considering the high standards at his only position.

Sure, they are first baseman, but there were only 5 MLB first baseman who had an OPS over .900. Only 10 were even over .850. So to be in the upper third of baseball's first baseman, you simply needed to post an .850 OPS last season. Now, 2009 was a different story, when 13 guys were over .900. But even if that is the "going rate" for those guys, if you are the 15th best guy on the first basemans list, you are going to be accounting for a whole lot of runs for your team. All I know is that it seems Alonso coming out of the draft was seen as a future All Star projected to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter, and when healthy, he has done better than that in the minors, and his stock has dropped considerably IMO and I just can't figure out why.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Sure, they are first baseman, but there were only 5 MLB first baseman who had an OPS over .900. Only 10 were even over .850. So to be in the upper third of baseball's first baseman, you simply needed to post an .850 OPS last season. Now, 2009 was a different story, when 13 guys were over .900. But even if that is the "going rate" for those guys, if you are the 15th best guy on the first basemans list, you are going to be accounting for a whole lot of runs for your team. All I know is that it seems Alonso coming out of the draft was seen as a future All Star projected to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter, and when healthy, he has done better than that in the minors, and his stock has dropped considerably IMO and I just can't figure out why.

1. Not sure at 1B .300/.400/.500 is an all star.
2. Alonso has never had an OPS of .900 in any season so far.

He put up an .880 one year at A+ and its the best he's done. At AAA he's at .825 in 445 PAs, yet he's ranked ahead of those .900+ guys like Trumbo, Allen, Duda, Francisco etc. that I posted above. He's viewed as the #73 prospect in baseball with an OPS below that of Danny Dorn who has more success and more versatility and can't get a roster spot. I don't see how he's being sold short.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

1. Not sure at 1B .300/.400/.500 is an all star.
2. Alonso has never had an OPS of .900 in any season so far.

He put up an .880 one year at A+ and its the best he's done. At AAA he's at .825 in 445 PAs, yet he's ranked ahead of those .900+ guys like Trumbo, Allen, Duda, Francisco etc. that I posted above. He's viewed as the #73 prospect in baseball with an OPS below that of Danny Dorn who has more success and more versatility and can't get a roster spot. I don't see how he's being sold short.

In his one year at A+, it was the FSL. If he were in the CAL that probably would have been a 1.000 OPS. As for his AAA numbers, I am not worried about them when a good chunk of them came with him recovering from the hamate issue. Dude is going to rake and has when healthy, with all of the right peripherals.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I bolded the ones I believe will be/are as good or better production wise than Yonder over the next 5 years or so strictly with the bat IF Yonder cuts down his swing a bit. There are a few I am on the fence about because I haven't studied them/their issues or lack thereof like Smoak, Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Kila K., Rizzo and Viciedo. But others are fading (ex. Helton) or haven't shown enough yet (Soto) or I have seen enough and am not overly impressed (Butler, Ike Davis, Loney, Sandoval, Kotchman, Edwin) or not impressed at all (Francisco, Chris Davis, Brett Wallace, B. Allen, Borchering, Blanks). There are also some of those guys I don't know at all like Goldschmidt, Streiby, Trumbo.

Bottom line I would rate Alonso as a top 15-20 1B in all of pro ball right now because I believe he can hit for power, average & discipline with a bit of coaching. In fact I despise the fact the people want to pigeon hole the guy into a Sean Casey type of mold because he hasn't hit for tons of power in the minors...yet. I will blame all of that on his hand injury and assuming health I do expect him to hit for lots of power in Louisville this season, then the "experts" will give him a fast ascension up the ranks come mid season/late season.

The only question for me is can that translate to the bigs and none of these other big name prospects have proven that yet either. So until there is some seperation I will put him on the list if not near the top of it when it comes to minor league 1B prospects.

A top 15-20 1B at the show who costs 400k per season has enormous value.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

A top 15-20 1B at the show who costs 400k per season has enormous value.

I'd simply get rid of the "enormous" in that declaration and leave it at that.

You can find a cheap, productive 1B fairly easily in today's market if you choose wisely. It happens often each year.

Alonso will have to OPS 925+ to be an All Star, perhaps as much as 1.000. As of now, he's not shown that level in the minor leagues. Perhaps it has been a confluence of injury, park, and league, but, as of yet, he's been underwhelming.

That doesn't mean he won't slug as early as this year. But it should definitely be a case of caveat emptor.

(And, fwiw, I have him around 20-25 on that list, not including LFers and others who will move to the 1B position.

[kpresidente]

I'm noticing the people who knocked Mes and Stubbs are the one's that are lukewarm on Alonso. I'm also noticing the guy defending Alonso was right about Mes and Stubbs. I'm gonna learn from history and give him the benefit of the doubt as far as his production to this point goes.

Plus, I have to think an average first-baseman is considerably more valuable than an average player at other positions. Salary data, at the very least, confirms that teams think that's the case.

[lonewolf371]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I'd simply get rid of the "enormous" in that declaration and leave it at that.

You can find a cheap, productive 1B fairly easily in today's market if you choose wisely. It happens often each year.

Alonso will have to OPS 925+ to be an All Star, perhaps as much as 1.000. As of now, he's not shown that level in the minor leagues. Perhaps it has been a confluence of injury, park, and league, but, as of yet, he's been underwhelming.

That doesn't mean he won't slug as early as this year. But it should definitely be a case of caveat emptor.

(And, fwiw, I have him around 20-25 on that list, not including LFers and others who will move to the 1B position.

Not really. Even average 1B like Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena make north of $10 million a year.

[Scrap Irony]

Some are expensive, sure. Doesn't mean they should be.

Depends on how well you shop. Jim Thome, for example, made just $1.5 million last season. Russell Branyan made about the same the year before. There are three or four each year who are cheap and productive.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Some are expensive, sure. Doesn't mean they should be.

Depends on how well you shop. Jim Thome, for example, made just $1.5 million last season. Russell Branyan made about the same the year before. There are three or four each year who are cheap and productive.

Thome was a DH in every game last season too. Branyan started 51 games at first.

[Scrap Irony]

Either could have played 1B. Both were available late and were signed for a huge discount.