3 Bold Predictions for 2011

[Ghosts of 1990]

Originally Posted by Benihana

1. Mesoraco starts very slow in Louisville before rebounding mid-summer
2. Jay Bruce hits more HR than Joey Votto
3. Andre Ethier is the starting LF for the Reds by August

Unfortunate Bonus: the Cubs will be much better than anyone expects

That would be too good to be true. Man this would be perfect.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990

That would be too good to be true. Man this would be perfect.

The wheels could be in motion:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/0...next-year.html

I wouldn't be surprised if the LF void proves costly to see the Reds deal some of their excess for Ethier at some point this summer.

Of course, a few not-too-farfetched things would need to happen between now and then:

1. The Dodgers fall out of contention by July.
2. Alonso either cannot field enough or hit enough in the bigs to be the answer in LF.
3. Sappelt drops off from his ST/2010 line
4. Neither Hermida, Lewis, nor Gomes prove to be an adequate solution.
5. The pitchers regain health and either Bailey or Volquez emerges as a true #1, leaving room to deal someone like Leake for Ethier. The Reds could then be forced to choose between paying Ethier or Phillips $12MM in 2012.

If not Ethier, I wouldn't mind seeing Kemp in LF either. Regardless, the Reds and Dodgers could match up well at some point this summer.

And if not Kemp or Ethier, give me Jose Reyes at some point this summer.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Benihana

The wheels could be in motion:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/0...next-year.html

I wouldn't be surprised if the LF void proves costly to see the Reds deal some of their excess for Ethier at some point this summer.

Of course, a few not-too-farfetched things would need to happen between now and then:

1. The Dodgers fall out of contention by July.
2. Alonso either cannot field enough or hit enough in the bigs to be the answer in LF.
3. Sappelt drops off from his ST/2010 line
4. Neither Hermida, Lewis, nor Gomes prove to be an adequate solution.
5. The pitchers regain health and either Bailey or Volquez emerges as a true #1, leaving room to deal someone like Leake for Ethier. The Reds could then be forced to choose between paying Ethier or Phillips $12MM in 2012.

If not Ethier, I wouldn't mind seeing Kemp in LF either. Regardless, the Reds and Dodgers could match up well at some point this summer.

And if not Kemp or Ethier, give me Jose Reyes at some point this summer.

Kemp and Reyes...not sure that they would fit in the clubhouse with what they have shown regarding attitude. Maybe they would feed off the other guys, but at this point I don't see WJ going after either of them.

[cincrazy]

1. The Brewers and Cardinals are both derailed by injuries, poor defense, and the circus that becomes Fielder's and Pujols' contract situations.

2. The Reds win less games than last year, and still take the division before getting handled in the first round of the playoffs by a team with superior starting pitching.

3. The Phillies do NOT win the NL East. Their age and injuries keep them from being the regular season juggernaut most expect, and the "Four Aces" theory goes out the window when Oswalt and Lee have back trouble and prove to be human.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Kemp and Reyes...not sure that they would fit in the clubhouse with what they have shown regarding attitude. Maybe they would feed off the other guys, but at this point I don't see WJ going after either of them.

Maybe you're right, but to my original prediction, Ethier would. He's supposed to be a super guy.

[Strikes Out Looking]

1. Jay Bruce finishes higher in the MVP voting than Joey Votto -- they both finish in the top 10.
2. Travis Wood wins 17 games and becomes the ace of the staff.
3. St. Louis gets into a clubhouse clearing brawl -- with themselves. Additionally, as the season lingers on whispers begin to appear in the St. Louis papers about a certain 1b and PEDs. Finally, Chris Carpenter is unable to explain any of it to his son.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Benihana

1. Mesoraco starts very slow in Louisville before rebounding mid-summer
2. Jay Bruce hits more HR than Joey Votto
3. Andre Ethier is the starting LF for the Reds by August

Unfortunate Bonus: the Cubs will be much better than anyone expects

I actually considered making this one of my bold predictions too. After reading that piece on MLBtraderumors, if Gomes struggles and the Reds want someone proven out there instead of a young guy like Sappelt, I could see the Reds going after Ethier.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I actually considered making this one of my bold predictions too. After reading that piece on MLBtraderumors, if Gomes struggles and the Reds want someone proven out there instead of a young guy like Sappelt, I could see the Reds going after Ethier.

Food for thought for those who buy into UZR:

Ethier is not valued too highly out in the field. If not the worst in the league, he's right there.

[cumberlandreds]

Here's mine all Reds related:

1. Chapman will be the closer by the all star break.

2. Sappelt will be leading off by the 4th of July,maybe sooner.

3. The Reds make a blockbuster trade to pick up TOR pitcher. Saying that I don't who may be available. I have a feeling all of this talent in minors is goping to pay a dividend in a really good starting pitcher.

[Will M]

Ethier is on my fantasy team. I didn't read the piece on MLB Trade Rumors but was looking at Ethier yesterday & I too said "maybe he becomes a Red due to the Dodgers situation". Its kind of funny that so many RedsZone members are all thinking the same thing.

My predictions:
1) Both Alonso & Meseraco are on the Reds or traded by mid season.
2) Heisey is the Reds starting left fielder by May 15th.
3) Francisco gets 300 PAs this year as a Red.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

* Bonus - A "Heisey vs Gomes" thread is started before May 1.

Sure you don't mean April 1?

[RedsManRick]

Either would be a nice addition, but there's no way the Reds take on his salary without shedding some. We'd have to ship out Cordero, Arroyo or Phillips to make that work, but only Cordero makes sense and he's not part of the payroll next year so the savings would be limited.

[Caveat Emperor]

1.) Sam LeCure + Matt Maloney combine for 30 starts.

2.) Drew Stubbs struggles the entire season at the plate and hits under .230.

3.) Devin Mesoraco is the team's everyday catcher, spelled ocassionally by Hanigan, by seasons' end, and Yonder Alonso is the team's starting LF.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Either would be a nice addition, but there's no way the Reds take on his salary without shedding some. We'd have to ship out Cordero, Arroyo or Phillips to make that work, but only Cordero makes sense and he's not part of the payroll next year so the savings would be limited.

I think they could take him on for the last two months of the season (<$3MM to the Reds) without shedding anything substantial- especially if Cast is "serious about winning" and this puts them over the edge. As far as next year goes, they lose Cordero but will still likely have to choose between keeping Ethier or Phillips at $12MM for the year. There could be worse choices to make.

[GoReds]

1. Jay Bruce struggles for the first half of the year, but still manages 25HR by year's end.

2. Edinson Volquez also starts slowly, but becomes the TOR guy the Reds need by the ASB. He wins 20 and is in the top-5 for Cy.

3. Chris Carpenter is traded to the Yankees near the trade deadline as the Cards fall out of contention early. This is just part of the Cards implosion that also results in the Redbirds being forced to trade Colby Rasmus. Albert Pujols contract issues dog the Cardinals all year and reaches a boiling point as the trade deadline approaches.