Setting the Tone

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life

It seemed like picking the Reds was the "in" thing to do Nationally. Almost all of the St. Louis reporters picked the Reds, and none of them picked the Cardinals. For once in a long time, the Reds are the favorite and the Cardinals are the underdog. I kinda like it that way.

I'm not sure why you would like it that way when the reason that is the case is due to a lower talent level for the Cards. You can invite me to a fine crow dinner later, but I think the Cards, as currently constructed, are destined for a 2007ish type year.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally Posted by traderumor

You can invite me to a fine crow dinner later, but I think the Cards, as currently constructed, are destined for a 2007ish type year.

Ok...you can be expecting your invitation to the crow dinner in October

I wonder how many times the "favorite" actually wins the NL Central. I know it didn't happen in 2010.

[medford]

How many games did the Cards win last season? I ask because I have trouble seeing them top that total. I'm guessing about 85? 85 wins likely won't win this division. Their starting rotatin is signifanctly worse w/o Waino, and their defense is worse despite being sub-par last season. Berkman may be an upgrade offensively, but I have my doubts as well.

None the less, love your optomisim, with out, why would anyone be a fan?

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by medford

How many games did the Cards win last season? I ask because I have trouble seeing them top that total. I'm guessing about 85? 85 wins likely won't win this division. Their starting rotatin is signifanctly worse w/o Waino, and their defense is worse despite being sub-par last season. Berkman may be an upgrade offensively, but I have my doubts as well.

None the less, love your optomisim, with out, why would anyone be a fan?

They won 86, if I recall. And I'm with you. Add on the fact they don't have a 6 WAR pitcher like Waino, along with a below average defense? I'm just not seeing it this year for the Cards.

[The Operator]

I believe the Redbirds were 86-76 last season, 5 below us.

This year's Cards are a different brand than most Cardinals teams we've seen. They're heavy on offense but very suspect on defense. They have a rotation that could potentially be great but definitely has question marks it it.

If you believe my friends over at BirdsOnTheBat, this team is more Tony LaRussa's brainchild than any team ever before. He'll probably feast or famine doing things his way, as it looks like he has most of the control in that organization with Jocketty out of the picture.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by medford

3-0 'tis better than 2-1.

But either way, its the start of the season, meaning that "its only spring training" has been replaced by "its early"

Am I greedy for wanting a sweep over Houston? Houston looks pretty bad, perhaps last place bad. The Reds were made last year by controlling series vs teams like Houston. Keep winning those series, sprinkle in more winning series vs the likes of Milwaukee & St Louis, perhaps they'll fight for home field advantage.

Then again, "its early" one game at a time.

I like the Reds' chances in the first two games of the series. I see us having around a 65% shot to win Leake vs. Happ. I really like the Reds' line-up vs. lefties. Stubbs, Phillips, Gomes, Rolen, either of the catchers and Janish are better against lefties, Votto hits anyone and only Bruce is worse vs. lefties.

The second game, I really like Volquez vs. Figueroa. I see us having another 65% chance to win that game.

The finale will be tough, though. Myers pitched great vs. the Phillies and LeCure should not be starting IMO, when you could have Wood on normal rest. I see the Reds with about a 40% chance in this one. Multiply it all up and I see the Reds only having about a 17% chance for the sweep. I do like the Reds' chances of winning the series.

Hopefully the Astros give us a Sunday Special on Thursday afternoon and LeCure can give us six competitive innings before the bull-pen shuts them down.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by The Operator

I believe the Redbirds were 86-76 last season, 5 below us.

This year's Cards are a different brand than most Cardinals teams we've seen. They're heavy on offense but very suspect on defense. They have a rotation that could potentially be great but definitely has question marks it it.

If you believe my friends over at BirdsOnTheBat, this team is more Tony LaRussa's brainchild than any team ever before. He'll probably feast or famine doing things his way, as it looks like he has most of the control in that organization with Jocketty out of the picture.

Are they heavy on offense though? I mean, I know their strategy was to boost their offense while sacrificing their defense, but do they have an above average offense? I'm not convinced. They may be technically above average offensively, but they aren't the Reds or the Brewers with the bats. I'm not basing this off the three game series vs. the Padres either.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life

Ok...you can be expecting your invitation to the crow dinner in October

I wonder how many times the "favorite" actually wins the NL Central. I know it didn't happen in 2010.

Good because the favorite going in was Milwaukee

[The Operator]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

Are they heavy on offense though? I mean, I know their strategy was to boost their offense while sacrificing their defense, but do they have an above average offense? I'm not convinced. They may be technically above average offensively, but they aren't the Reds or the Brewers with the bats. I'm not basing this off the three game series vs. the Padres either.

Well, they've got more offense than last year... but I agree, still not an elite unit.

I think they'll win some lop-sided games when all their pieces are rolling, but I feel like they're gonna struggle in close games with that defense. It really is pretty bad, especially if the opening series was any indicator.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Good because the favorite going in was Milwaukee

This is correct (per vegas).

[_Sir_Charles_]

Prior to Greinke & Marcum getting injured, nearly everyone in the Media was picking the Brewers. The pre-season stuff we all read just prior to opening day...that's where we saw a lot of Reds picks....but that was after the injuries.

[Captain Hook]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...tral-favorites

According to this the Cards are still the favorites.:ughmamoru

Not that I'm counting them out but I think calling them the favorite is a reach.This is a pretty poor article.Dept is not likely going to win them the division.Their superstars are going to have to be superstars imo.

[RBA]

Originally Posted by Captain Hook

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...tral-favorites

According to this the Cards are still the favorites.:ughmamoru

Not that I'm counting them out but I think calling them the favorite is a reach.This is a pretty poor article.Dept is not likely going to win them the division.Their superstars are going to have to be superstars imo.

Yup, I think MLB Network also picked the Cards.

[RedsManRick]

At BP, their Playoff Odds Report still has the Cards at 49.0%, Brewers at 30.9%, Reds at 28.6%, Cubs at 9.9% and Pirates/Stros under 1.0%.

PECOTA was not friendly to the Reds, seeing regression across the board. A number of Reds took a big step forward in 2010. Your view of the likely trajectory for this team depends on the degree to which you view those gains as true steps forward in talent vs. mere "good seasons" above what can be expected long term. In particular, PECOTA is bearish on Stubbs, Cueto, Rolen and the catchers. It even has Jay Bruce being 2 wins less productive.

FWIW, Joe Sheehan has the Reds in the World Series this year as does another former BPer Rany Jazayerli.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally Posted by medford

How many games did the Cards win last season? I ask because I have trouble seeing them top that total.

Really? I do expect them to top that total, because the 2011 is better than the 2010 team. Barring any additional injuries of course. Last year the Cards had a 3 man rotation for most of the season. Those 3 starters were great starters, but they had to do the work of 5 pitchers. A lot of times the #5 spot was skipped which stretched the big 3 out and wore them out earlier than usual. Penny was injured almost the entire season. Lohse was injured most of the season, and when he came back he was horrible. Westbrook didn't arrive until towards the end of the season. Other pitchers such as Walters and Hawksworth filled in the rest of the rotation. Also, the Cards had a black hole at 3B in 2010. This year they have David Freese which is an upgrade offensively and defensively.

Of course, losing Wainwright does hurt, but the Cards have more depth in pitching this year than they did last year. We still have a 5 man rotation, that can be very good, and can be very bad. All in all... I like this team a lot better than the 2010 team.