Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

His upside in regards to his talent level. Sure, the odds are dropping rapidly as to whether he'll ever live up to that talent...but for now, it's still there.

But I'm right with you in regards to his overall performance since being a Red and heck since being in the bigs period. He's a middle of the rotation pitcher thus far. He had a great half season stretch...but was it any better than Homer's half season stretch? Or Leake's half season stretch? I'd say they're pretty close to one another. But based on the full body of work...middle of rotation right now.

Talent level doesn't mean diddly if you can't throw strikes. Talent level doesn't mean diddly if you are getting shelled in the first inning of every start. Talent level doesn't mean diddly if you are taking advantage of it.

At some point that talent level has to become a reality. It just can't be year after year of saying "he has TOR potential". IMO I don't think it ever manifests itself. Even when he is one he hasn't shown the ability have the necessary control to work late into games. He has great stuff but he is his own worst enemy when it comes to control and command.

At this point I think we are seeing what Edinson is going to become. A guy who has stuff that can dazzle you but never fully puts it together.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Funny how 196 IP and an ERA Plus of 138 in 2008 is now just "a half a season" and is somehow equal to Leake's ERA plus of 94 and Bailey's +90 from last year.

Volquez was otherworldly for the first 2 months of that season. We have seen 6 "healthy" months (and 3 post-TJ months) out of him since then, none approaching what he did in those first 2 months. Not even close. I think it is fair to consider those first 2 months outliers at this point.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Volquez was otherworldly for the first 2 months of that season. We have seen 6 "healthy" months (and 3 post-TJ months) out of him since then, none approaching what he did in those first 2 months. Not even close. I think it is fair to consider those first 2 months outliers at this point.

Two months of "otherwordly" still trumps 6 months of sub average.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Since when?

Happily it does.

FIP takes into account walks, K's and HR's. And an average BABIP rate.

xFIP takes FIP and replaces the pitcher's HR/FB rate with a league average rate.

You're right. Doesn't change the fact that Volquez has double the amount of BBs as Leake and has surrendered quite a few more home runs than Leake this year as well. Obviously, xFIP is not telling the whole story here.

Even if you compare Volquez's last full season with Leake's rookie year, Volquez still walked almost double the amount of batters as Leake. In Volqeuz's best year, 2008, he only surrendered 14 home runs, and he has 6 already this year and we're not even 3 weeks into the season.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

What stat of Volquez's (other than Ks) is better than Leake's? And to the point of Ks, Volquez has 24 in 22.2 innings. For a major leaguer, that's a K machine in my opinion.

Well, first off it's such a small sample size that any small variance is going to skew the numbers fairly dramatically, but if you want specifics....

Right now Mike is allowing more hits than Edinson, he's striking out fewer batters, and considering that Mike is traditionally a ground ball pitcher...he's WELL behind Volquez in regards to ground outs versus fly outs. Edinson's basically getting twice as many ground balls than Mike.

But the bottom line is that they've both been knocked around thus far. Sure, they've both had good stretches too....but both of them have ERA's that are far from respectable. That's why I don't think he's CLEARLY doing better than Volquez. Slightly...sure. But they still both have long ways to go.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by kbrake

Biggest problem with this could be what will be available at the deadline? I'm not sure the M's will deal King Felix and outside of that will there be a difference maker? Agree with your idea though.

Yep. Felix is about the only possible option that I see. And that'll take a kings ransom. Pardon the pun.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Well, first off it's such a small sample size that any small variance is going to skew the numbers fairly dramatically, but if you want specifics....

Right now Mike is allowing more hits than Edinson, he's striking out fewer batters, and considering that Mike is traditionally a ground ball pitcher...he's WELL behind Volquez in regards to ground outs versus fly outs. Edinson's basically getting twice as many ground balls than Mike.

But the bottom line is that they've both been knocked around thus far. Sure, they've both had good stretches too....but both of them have ERA's that are far from respectable. That's why I don't think he's CLEARLY doing better than Volquez. Slightly...sure. But they still both have long ways to go.

I would say he is pitching much better because Leake has surrendered fewer walks and fewer home runs and by a lot thus far. Those are areas that will catch up to you.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

What stat of Volquez's (other than Ks) is better than Leake's? And to the point of Ks, Volquez has 24 in 22.2 innings. For a major leaguer, that's a K machine in my opinion.

SSS warning.

Arroyo 15 k's in 17 innings
Wood 16 k's in 18.2 innings
Leake 14 k's in 16.2 innings

Not that big of a difference compared to Volquez's 24 k's in 22.2 innings. At least not enough to point out that he's a "K machine" and the others don't get mentioned at all.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

You're right. Doesn't change the fact that Volquez has double the amount of BBs as Leake and has surrendered quite a few more home runs than Leake this year as well. Obviously, xFIP is not telling the whole story here.

xFIP isn't supposed to tell us how many HR's a pitcher has given up, just how many he is expected to give up.

That's it's point.

To show us that if Volquez continues to pitch like he has, the HR rate will come dome significantly.

xFIP does tell us what has occured. It tells us what likely should have occured based on things the pitcher has control over.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

SSS warning.

Arroyo 15 k's in 17 innings
Wood 16 k's in 18.2 innings
Leake 14 k's in 16.2 innings

Not that big of a difference compared to Volquez's 24 k's in 22.2 innings. At least not enough to point out that he's a "K machine" and the others don't get mentioned at all.

Yes, but Volquez's last full season, he had 206 in 196. The others you mentioned are not averaging numbers like that. I think he's consistent with being a K machine. It's the other stats that are concerning...like the HRs (not in line with his career norm) and the BBs, which he has always struggled with.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Funny how 196 IP and an ERA Plus of 138 in 2008 is now just "a half a season" and is somehow equal to Leake's ERA plus of 94 and Bailey's +90 from last year.

I didn't look up stats for that one, just going from memory. My appologies. But my point stands. Edinson was great for the first half of the year and tailed off considerably in the second half. His last 3 months of the season his ERA was in the 4.5 range. While his first half was staggeringly good at under 2.00.


Edinson's '08 first half...opeing to June 20th...10-2, 1.71 ERA, 110 k's, 45 bb, 94 ip

Leake's '10 first half....opening to June 5th....5-0, 2.22 ERA, 50 k's, 25 bb, 72 ip

Homer's '09 final flourish...Aug. 23rd on....6-1, 1.70 ERA, 53 k's, 24 bb, 54 ip

I'd say all three of those are fairly similar. At least similar enough to warrant discussion. Volquez's string was a bit longer than the other 2, but the results are very similar IMO.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Yes, but Volquez's last full season, he had 206 in 196. The others you mentioned are not averaging numbers like that. I think he's consistent with being a K machine. It's the other stats that are concerning...like the HRs (not in line with his career norm) and the BBs, which he has always struggled with.

I think we need to take all of Edinson's numbers with a grain of salt. His tremendous season was all the way back in 2008 folks. We simply don't know WHAT he'll be going forward. Even without the Tommy John surgery factored in. Simply 2 years of limited to no activity can be devastating for a pitcher.

Counting on Edinson to duplicate his career year again in any aspect is wishful thinking IMO. I HOPE it happens, but I'm certainly not counting on it.

[mth123]

One question for everyone. Why does Leake have such a reputation for being a "ground ball pitcher?" April of 2010 is the only month where he has thrown a significantly higher number of GB than FB. That is the month when he was a complete unknown to everyone.

Month     	BF	K	BB/HB	GB	FB
April, 2010	118	18	15	53	32
May , 2010	153	27	10	58	58
June, 2010	137	17	14	47	59
July, 2010	106	14	6	40	46
Aug, 2010	90	15	7	38	30
2010	        604	91	52	236	225
					
Apr, 2011	74	14	9	25	26

Augiust of 2010 is the only other month with more groundballs than fly balls and the difference isn't terribly large.

[reds44]

Current ERAs of the starting rotation:
Volquez 6.75
Wood 5.73
Leake 5.40
Arroyo 4.24
LeCure 2.25

The rotation as a whole sucks right now, and yet the only one who catches the blame is Volquez.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by reds44

Current ERAs of the starting rotation:
Volquez 6.75
Wood 5.73
Leake 5.40
Arroyo 4.24
LeCure 2.25

The rotation as a whole sucks right now, and yet the only one who catches the blame is Volquez.

Outside of Lecure, Volquez is the only one w/o more than 1 QS this season. The other dudes' ERAs are inflated due to one poor start for the most part.

EV has earned his share of the blame.