Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

[fearofpopvol1]

I really like Wood, but he probably punched his ticket down to Louisville tonight. I'm not saying it's fair or he should be sent down, but the Reds simply have too many good pitchers and not enough spots. It's crazy saying that out loud given the lost decade, but it's true.

Cueto is the best pitcher the Reds have (IMO) and Bailey is out of options. That means 2 guys are going. LeCure is an obvious choice (or Maloney and LeCure takes his spot), but it's going to come down to Leake vs. Wood most likely when Bailey and Cueto are back. The interesting thing is...Leake and Wood are very close overall with their numbers thus far, you could really go either way. But I think because Wood has struggled more times recently than Leake and because Leake has more service time (albeit not much more), Wood will probably be the guy to go down.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Wood still shouldn't be in the discussion to be sent down, IMO. Yeah, he was off tonight but if Bruce catches that flyball in the first inning then the Marlins probably don't score that inning. His K/BB and HR rates are all still very solid. He was our best starter last year, he deserves some time to turn things around.

No. Even IF he makes that catch...they score quite a few. They were hitting the ball VERY hard and VERY solidly off of Wood.

He started off slowly last season too. Sending him down doesn't mean he can't come back up once he's rolling. Besides, he's one of the few with options left. Bronson, Homer & some say Edinson's out. At this point it's all about who's pitching better. Right now, it's not Travis.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

LeCure is an obvious choice (or Maloney and LeCure takes his spot)

Maloney's already down. Could swap Fisher for LeCure I guess since we don't have a long man currently...but Sam's looked pretty darned good starting.

[edabbs44]

Yep, blaming the inning on one play is kind of backwards. Sure it happened and hurt, but that doesn't give Wood a free pass on getting smacked around the stadium.

[Will M]

Leake has pitched 30.2 innings with 26 Ks, whip 1.21, ERA 4.40 & BAA .239 .
To me those numbers would indicate that he stays in the rotation.
Bronson, Leake & Lecure have been MUCH better than Volquez & Wood.

Assuming all goes well in Cueto & Homer's last rehab starts:
1. I would move Lecure to the pen. He has pitched well but doesn't have the pedigree of the other pitchers. If I recall he seemed to pitch well out of the pen last year.
2. Either Volquez or Wood loses their rotation spot. I'd pick Wood. If you take Volquez out of the rotation then there really is no place to put him. Whereas Wood likely could pitch in relief until he gets 'fixed'.
3. Smith & Fisher head back to AAA.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

No. Even IF he makes that catch...they score quite a few. They were hitting the ball VERY hard and VERY solidly off of Wood.

He started off slowly last season too. Sending him down doesn't mean he can't come back up once he's rolling. Besides, he's one of the few with options left. Bronson, Homer & some say Edinson's out. At this point it's all about who's pitching better. Right now, it's not Travis.

If Bruce makes that catch, there's one out and nobody on base and he's pitching out of the windup. I like his chances better of getting out of that inning unscathed. He pitched bad, no doubt, but that misplay was very costly. I would give him at least 3-5 more starts before I would even consider sending him down.

[OnBaseMachine]

I often see FIP used around here when a Reds pitchers is overperforming his ERA but it's rarely mentioned when a Reds pitcher is unlucky.

Wood has a 2.56 BB/9, 7.67 K/9, and .366 BABIP against. His actual ERA is 6.82 but his FIP is 3.35. If you look at the peripherals, he's due to turn things around soon.