Drew Stubbs

[SidneySlicker]

We know that Drew is gonna play gold glove cf and steal 30 or so bases ,but I'd be interested in seeing what people feel is Drew Stubbs cieling as a hitter. So I figured I'd throw up a poll and see where people stand.

[SidneySlicker]

I'll start. I voted for .250 and 10-20 hr's. I just don't think he's more than that. I think some people tend to over value Stubbs from an offensive perspective. I think he's a 7 hole hitter on a good offensive team, and he's definitely not a leadoff hitter in a good offensive lineup.

[UCBrownsfan]

How could you post his ceiling is less than what he's already done?

He's already bested your CEILING for him in both average and homers.

[KYRedLeg]

I absolutely love Stubbs, both defensively, and once he gets on base. Watching him get there, though, can be painful at times. The guy's got killer speed which makes him a huge asset, but he either needs to work on his patience at the plate, or at least learn how to put down a bunt he can beat out.

[swaisuc]

Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan

How could you post his ceiling is less than what he's already done?

He's already bested your CEILING for him in both average and homers.

Are you talking about the 40 games of 2009 where Stubbs hit in the .260s or are you saying that because .255 > .250

In either case, Stubbs has never been a .275 hitter and I don't see him ever hitting for average as things stand today. As is, I would guess .240-.250 range with 22 HRs and 40 SBs per season is what I'm expecting.

The only reason I am qualifying my pick is that there may come a time where the Reds rework his entire swing/approach to improve the OBP and presumably decrease his power.

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan

How could you post his ceiling is less than what he's already done?

He's already bested your CEILING for him in both average and homers.

Maybe cieling was the wrong way to word it. Basically I'm looking for what people think he is as a hitter. I think last year from a power standpoint was an aboration. I don't see him putting up 20+ homers every year. Look at his minor league stats. Stubbs has never been a power hitter. In 1588 ab's (roughly 3 season's worth of at bats) Stubbs hit a total of 28 homeruns. I like Stubbs glove and speed, but in my mind offensively he's gonna be a .250 12-15 homerun player and he's gonna strikeout probably 150 times. Also he struck out 433 times in those at bats for a strikeout ever 3.66 at bats. Last year in his first full season in the majors he struckout 168 times in 514 at bats for 1 strikeout in every 3.05 at bats. I just think this kid is not a very good offensive player.

[UCBrownsfan]

Originally Posted by swaisuc

Are you talking about the 40 games of 2009 where Stubbs hit in the .260s or are you saying that because .255 > .250

In either case, Stubbs has never been a .275 hitter and I don't see him ever hitting for average as things stand today. As is, I would guess .240-.250 range with 22 HRs and 40 SBs per season is what I'm expecting.

The only reason I am qualifying my pick is that there may come a time where the Reds rework his entire swing/approach to improve the OBP and presumably decrease his power.

I'm saying .250 10-20 Hrs as a ceiling is downright idiotic even as a choice when last year his only full season was .255 22 HRs, even if he never beats his rookie year and you want to round down. He's already out performed that choice, so basically any 10-20 HR performance should be left off the list. And yes when talking ceilings .275 is the ceiling for a .255 hitter, not .250.

[BluegrassRedleg]

I wouldn't say it's his "ceiling," but it is what he is at his current rate of swinging and missing pitches.

[Lockdwn11]

I would say 260ish with 20-30 homers but that wasn't an option