Robert Stephenson

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Calm down. I am sure that EVERY pitching coach has worked with multiple guys who has blown elbows and shoulders. It is the nature of the beast.

I was kidding. Though he doesn't sound to be a pitching coach, more a strength and conditioning guy.

[klw]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Calm down. I am sure that EVERY pitching coach has worked with multiple guys who has blown elbows and shoulders. It is the nature of the beast.

Just don't let Bench make any comparisons to Seaver and things should be okay.

[Benihana]

From BA Chat today:

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): What is the ceiling for Reds 1st Pick Robert Stephenson?

Jim Callis: Frontline starter. 93-95 fastball, good curveball, good command.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Apparently the Braves really coveted Stephenson and were set to take him with their pick just after our's.

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-...ta_braves_blog

I've liked this pick from the moment it was announced. This just makes me like it even more. Picking 27th, you don't go in with very high expectations. I think the Reds "maxed out" on their pick so to speak. Reading about this kid, you would think he had the resume of a top 15 overall pick, no worse than top 20. And we got him 27th. Not too shabby. Will be interesting to follow his development.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

I've liked this pick from the moment it was announced. This just makes me like it even more. Picking 27th, you don't go in with very high expectations. I think the Reds "maxed out" on their pick so to speak. Reading about this kid, you would think he had the resume of a top 15 overall pick, no worse than top 20. And we got him 27th. Not too shabby. Will be interesting to follow his development.

Completely agree.

[gedred69]

Has he got what it takes to pitch at Billings or does he go to AZL? Being a HS pitcher I'm thinking AZL....

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by gedred69

Has he got what it takes to pitch at Billings or does he go to AZL? Being a HS pitcher I'm thinking AZL....

Homer started in the Gulf Coast League, so I suspect you're right. It's so hard to believe he's in his 8th professional season (5th at the big league level).

[Blitz Dorsey]

These days ... he probably won't even sign in time to play anywhere this season. Or if he does, it will be a start or two at best. And yes, I'm sure it would be for the AZL Reds.

Next year, I fully expect him to start the year with Dayton.

[MikeS21]

“The really good high school guys are gone, that we wanted,” DeMacio said. “We were on Stephenson right in front of us. We were really on him, and we thought we had him.”

He was referring to Robert Stephenson of Martinez Calif., the smooth throwing right-hander with the mid-90s fastball out of Alhambra High School. The Braves were primed to pick him in the first round, but the Reds nabbed him with the 27th pick, just before the Braves were announced as the next team on the clock.

Typical Braves pick: a tall righthanded high school pitcher with amid-90's fastball and decent secondary stuff.

[OnBaseMachine]

John Sickels on Stephenson and the Reds draft.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/...ti-reds-review

[AmarilloRed]

Anyone have any idea how fast Stephenson's slider is? Someone uploaded a version of Robert Stephenson to the Player Vault in MLB 11, but they didn't give him a slider.

[camisadelgolf]

I was looking at first rounders from 1994 to 2003, and here are some I gathered:
37.1% never reach the majors
23.3% provide negative WAR

That means 60.4% of first round draft picks hurt their teams. Wow. Of the first round picks who do provide any semblance of production, only about a fourth of them make even a remotely-significant impact. In other words, only 15.7% of first round picks from '94-'03 provide more than 10.0 WAR throughout their careers.

What are everyone's expectations for Stephenson? I'm not asking about what you're hoping for--obviously, all Reds fans are hoping for a shelf full of Cy Young Awards--but what do you think is a fair expectation for a high school pitcher drafted late in the first round? The odds say that he won't amount to much. Would anyone else be thrilled with Mark Prior, Brett Myers, Mark Mulder, or Jason Jennings numbers?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I was looking at first rounders from 1994 to 2003, and here are some I gathered:
37.1% never reach the majors
23.3% provide negative WAR

That means 60.4% of first round draft picks hurt their teams. Wow. Of the first round picks who do provide any semblance of production, only about a fourth of them make even a remotely-significant impact. In other words, only 15.7% of first round picks from '94-'03 provide more than 10.0 WAR throughout their careers.

What are everyone's expectations for Stephenson? I'm not asking about what you're hoping for--obviously, all Reds fans are hoping for a shelf full of Cy Young Awards--but what do you think is a fair expectation for a high school pitcher drafted late in the first round? The odds say that he won't amount to much. Would anyone else be thrilled with Mark Prior, Brett Myers, Mark Mulder, or Jason Jennings numbers?

Which makes it all the more amazing that once Mesoraco is called up at some point this season, the Reds will have had 7 straight first rounders make the majors, 6 of whom will (hopefully) make a strong positive contribution. (Knocking on wood) I'd also be quite surprised if Grandal doesn't continue the streak, even if it's for a team other than the Reds. Let's hope Stephenson will one day eventually make it 9 straight first rounders to make the big club.

As far as your question goes, I think if you look at other high-upside HS RHP that were drafted in the later part of the first round, you're looking at names like Phil Hughes, Matt Garza (Stephenson's closest comp), Clay Buchholz, and Rick Porcello (you could also probably add Kyle Drabek, and perhaps eventually Zach Lee to this group). Stephenson is not as highly rated as Porcello (who slipped to #27 -ironically- for signability reasons) coming out of HS, but I think the other three are pretty fair comps for what to expect/hope for out of him.

Of course the downside would be guys like Michael Main and Tim Alderson, who still have time to develop into something useful. Ironically, the one guy who fits into this category that did not sign was Gerrit Cole (taken #28) in 2008. Remarkably, the washout rate for high-upside HS RHP drafted in the later part of the first round is not as high as you would think if you look at the past 6-7 years, which is one of the many reasons I am a big fan of this type of pick.

[Benihana]

Going back 2 more years (2002 and 2003) there were two other HS RHP drafted in the 20s:
Matt Cain and today's Reds opponent and Ohio product Chad Billingsley.

2 more years, and the hit rate is 2-for-3: Adam Wainwright, Jeremy Bonderman, and Macay McBride.

Amazingly, the hit rate for HS RHP drafted in the late first round (#21-30) over the last ten years is over 75%!! If that's any indication of things to come, I'd say Robert Stephenson is in pretty good company.

[redsmetz]

I went looking for something about the team contacting him while they were on the West Coast. I found this blurb at MLB.com's Notebook which I'm going to quote since it's just a segment and there was no link to just this part. Glad to see they had him in as their guest in San Francisco.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...k_cin&c_id=cin

SAN FRANCISCO -- Robert Stephenson is no stranger to AT&T Park, having grown up in nearby Martinez, Calif. But when he stepped onto the field Sunday afternoon, Stephenson was no longer just a Giants fan -- he was a guest of the Reds.

Stephenson, picked 27th in the first round of the 2011 First-Year Player Draft, was invited by the club to come out to the park and meet some of Cincinnati's players before Sunday's game. Stephenson said he got to talk to Jay Bruce, Scott Rolen, Joey Votto, Edgar Renteria, Bronson Arroyo and a number of other Reds.

"I thought it was actually kind of convenient that they were out here this weekend, so it was pretty cool," said Stephenson, who attends nearby Alhambra High School. "But I don't think I'll have a problem being able to root for them."

The 18-year-old right-handed pitcher has still not signed with the club, and he has yet to decide whether he'll do so or honor his commitment to play for the University of Washington. That's the next step for him, he said, as he continues to work out during the offseason. Stephenson went 7-2 with a 1.33 ERA in 13 regular-season appearances during his senior year and was named the San Jose Mercury News' Gatorade California Baseball Player of the Year.

Stephenson's high-powered fastball -- he has touched 98 mph on the radar gun -- helped him begin his senior season with back-to-back no-hitters, and Baseball America ranked him as the 25th-best prospect in this year's Draft. Giants special assistant John Barr said after the Draft the club was hoping to have a chance at drafting the local prospect, but the Reds took him two picks before the Giants were on the clock.

Stephenson said he is impressed with what he has seen out of the Reds, particularly in their 10-2 win over Tim Lincecum and the Giants on Saturday. And his initial impression of the Reds was on the mark.

"They can hit," he said, smiling.