Impending FA, Arbitration and Draft Pick Compensation

[Benihana]

Although the CBA is due to expire after this season and therefore could render all of this moot, the Reds have three players up for Free Agency that would currently qualify as a "Type A" Free Agent. This means that if the Reds offer these players arbitration, the Reds could get up to 2 first round picks (the team that signs them if they draft in the lower half of the first round must give up their pick, in addition to a guaranteed sandwich round pick). Assuming this part of the CBA is renewed, given the risks and potential rewards of offering arbitratation, what would you do?

Personally I would pick up Phillips' option, and offer arbitration to Cordero and Hernandez. I am admittedly bias, as I'm a sucker for having multiple high draft picks.

I think the trade market is showing us that there will always be interest in someone like Hernandez' services, so even if he accepts he should still have some trade value.

Ditto for Cordero, who is quietly having a career year. As Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have shown in recent years, closers who have made it this long can continue to be good through their late 30s, and therefore I believe Cordero should have trade value if the Reds determine he is too expensive to keep should he accept. My guess, however, is that he would decline arbitration and get a 2 or 3 year deal elsewhere (with a contender) leaving the Reds with two additional first round selections to restock the farm (not to mention payroll flexibility).

[RedsManRick]

I could see offering Hernandez arb. Good catchers are hard to come by, he's showing no signs of slowing down and even if he accepted and didn't sign elsewhere and won, the price would be reasonable.

Cordero on the other hand is a regression bomb waiting to happen. That's not to say he's pitching poorly, he's not. He's pitched well. But his .169 BABIP is absurdly low, the 4th lowest in baseball. Even if you think pitchers have a fair amount of control of their BABIP, you're talking about a guy with a career .297 BABIP who is striking out fewer batters than he ever has before. Now, he's also demonstrating his best control since 2007, so the K dip isn't a big issue. But this isn't Craig Kimbrel who is absolutely destroying the league (until last night). This is a relief pitcher having a solid, but pedestrian year in terms of the things he can control, but who has benefited greatly from good fortune in the hit and earned run columns. And now that I just looked at his salary, I see that he's got a $12M team option for 2012 with a $1M buyout. Can they buy him out and still offer arb? Even if they could, I don't want to run the risk of retaining a decent reliever at the cost of 1/7th of our payroll. MLB has generally gotten much smarter about relievers over the last few years and I do not want to run the risk of having Cordero's contract on the books for another year.

[Kc61]

Risk of offering arbitration is that the player accepts it.

I think the Reds should re-sign Cordero, if possible, for two years, with money deferred. The issue for negotiation may be a third year. If not, they should offer him arbitration since he likely will reject it. He would want a multi-year contract and will get one.

I just don't see another closer ready for the Reds. So, again, I would try to sign Cordero up for two years if possible. (The two year deal would replace his current expensive option.)

If the Reds fall out of it, I fully expect Razor to be traded at the deadline, or even after. He would have good value for a contender.
Mes is the future.

If Reds keep Ramon this year, then they may NOT want to offer him arb. He just may take it and, with a big year this season, could get a good contract. He is less likely to get a multi-year contract on the market since he is getting on in years.

[Benihana]

My point is that I think both Cordero and Ramon would still have trade value if they accepted arbitration- even at their higher prices. Cordero on a one year deal has value unless he's making over $15MM. I think the fact that K-Rod is reportedly drawing interest on the trade market proves that. Plus, to Kc's point, I think the Reds could do worse than to have Cordero close games for one more season (although I doubt he'd accept arb, and would be willing to trade him if he did).

I agree that Ramon would be more likely to accept arb than Cordero, but I still think he would carry trade value because good catchers are hard to come by.

To say it another way, I would offer arb to both of them in order to get the draft pick compensation, and would feel confident that either could still be traded if they accept. I would not plan on either being on the team next year, despite my wish to offer them arb.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Benihana

My point is that I think both Cordero and Ramon would still have trade value if they accepted arbitration- even at their higher prices. Cordero on a one year deal has value unless he's making over $15MM. I think the fact that K-Rod is reportedly drawing interest on the trade market proves that. Plus, to Kc's point, I think the Reds could do worse than to have Cordero close games for one more season (although I doubt he'd accept arb, and would be willing to trade him if he did).

I agree that Ramon would be more likely to accept arb than Cordero, but I still think he would carry trade value because good catchers are hard to come by.

To say it another way, I would offer arb to both of them in order to get the draft pick compensation, and would feel confident that either could still be traded if they accept. I would not plan on either being on the team next year, despite my wish to offer them arb.

If Ramon H accepts arbitration, I'm not sure it will be so easy to trade him. Other teams might not want to arbitrate with him. Other teams might not want to negotiate with him in an arbitration setting.

I don't think it's very common to get into an arb situation with a player and then trade him. It happens, but not that often.

Again, if the Reds fall out of it (I wonder where they will be on July 4th!) I would trade Ramon. For the rest of this year, he is a valuable chip.

Keep in mind also that the Reds don't have a track record of offering arbitration to their free agents. It would be a departure from their usual practice.

I do agree with you, though, that if the Reds don't re-sign Cordero they should DEFINITELY offer him arbitration. He will get a mult-year contract elsewhere and the Reds will get draft picks.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Kc61

If Ramon H accepts arbitration, I'm not sure it will be so easy to trade him. Other teams might not want to arbitrate with him. Other teams might not want to negotiate with him in an arbitration setting.

I don't think it's very common to get into an arb situation with a player and then trade him. It happens, but not that often.

Again, if the Reds fall out of it (I wonder where they will be on July 4th!) I would trade Ramon. For the rest of this year, he is a valuable chip.

Keep in mind also that the Reds don't have a track record of offering arbitration to their free agents. It would be a departure from their usual practice.

I do agree with you, though, that if the Reds don't re-sign Cordero they should DEFINITELY offer him arbitration. He will get a mult-year contract elsewhere and the Reds will get draft picks.

With Hernandez, the Reds could arbitrate with him and still trade him before the season starts. Even if we get very little in return in terms of prospects, it would be worth the risk to see if he declines IMO.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by Benihana

To say it another way, I would offer arb to both of them in order to get the draft pick compensation, and would feel confident that either could still be traded if they accept. I would not plan on either being on the team next year, despite my wish to offer them arb.

For years the reds as a franchise were so bad that we just got used to doing it this way. That time is over. The franchise needs to make decisions based on who they want on the 25 man roster and trust that player development will do their part.

I think they have to let one of either Hernandez or Hanigan go in order to make room for a AAA catcher that is hitting 320/399/536 and has already burned an option year.

I don't think there is any question that the front office will pick up Brandon Phillip's option.

Cordero is the interesting one. I wouldn't pick up that option, but I can understand that there are decent reasons to do so.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by dfs

I think they have to let one of either Hernandez or Hanigan go in order to make room for a AAA catcher that is hitting 320/399/536 and has already burned an option year.

How has Mesoraco burned an option? Maybe there's some rule I'm not aware of, but you can't use an option until he's promoted and sent back down, right?

[dfs]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

How has Mesoraco burned an option? Maybe there's some rule I'm not aware of, but you can't use an option until he's promoted and sent back down, right?

My mistake. I assumed Mes was on the 40 man. He's not.

Unfortunately, Grandal is.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dfs

For years the reds as a franchise were so bad that we just got used to doing it this way. That time is over. The franchise needs to make decisions based on who they want on the 25 man roster and trust that player development will do their part.

Disagree. Smart GMs also play for picks. See Billy Beane, Andrew Friedman, and Theo Epstein just to name a few.

I think they have to let one of either Hernandez or Hanigan go in order to make room for a AAA catcher that is hitting 320/399/536 and has already burned an option year.

Agree. Trade Hernandez if he accepts arb. Let him walk if he declines it. I'd also be OK trading him this year if the return was sufficient (ie Eric Surkamp). When did I suggest otherwise.

I don't think there is any question that the front office will pick up Brandon Phillip's option.

Cordero is the interesting one. I wouldn't pick up that option, but I can understand that there are decent reasons to do so.

Would not pick up Cordero's option, but would buy him out then offer him arb. That way if he declines and signs elsewhere, you get the picks.

[PuffyPig]

There is zero chance we offer arbitation to Cordero.

[cinreds21]

Teams don't offer guys arbitration for Type-A or B free agents and then trade them if they accept it. I believe it's a rule. You cannot trade a newly signed player until a certain date (June something I believe.) So it's not like the Reds can offer Ramon arbitration and he accepts and then they just trade him because they wanted the draft pick. That's why a lot of good players who are Type-A free agents are not offered arbitration because teams do not want them back and don't want to take the risk of that player accepting it and then they are stuck with them for another year.

[Benihana]

Interesting perspective:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/0...be-type-b.html

Both Ramon and Cordero could easily "fall" into the Type B category if their second half numbers decline. As this article points out, that could possibly be a good thing for the Reds.

[camisadelgolf]

There's no way I'd offer Cordero arbitration because he would need to be offered a minimum of $9.6M. He'd be crazy not to accept. I'm open to offering arbitration to Ramon to keep him around for one more year, though. I would undoubtedly pick up Phillips' option, but I worry about what to do with him after next year.

What about the arbitration guys? Would you offer arbitration to Jeremy Hermida, Jose Arredondo, Jared Burton, Fred Lewis, etc.?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

There's no way I'd offer Cordero arbitration because he would need to be offered a minimum of $9.6M. He'd be crazy not to accept. I'm open to offering arbitration to Ramon to keep him around for one more year, though. I would undoubtedly pick up Phillips' option, but I worry about what to do with him after next year.

What about the arbitration guys? Would you offer arbitration to Jeremy Hermida, Jose Arredondo, Jared Burton, Fred Lewis, etc.?

I'm not sure Cordero would accept a 1-year $9.6MM deal. This could be his last chance to get a multiyear deal. By accepting arbitration, he'd be one year closer to 40 without a multiyear contract. If I were him, I'd seek a 2 or 3 year contract at $8 or $9MM per rather than go year-to-year at this point, especially after the season he's having so far this year. I think he's likely to get it, too.

I'd pick up Phillips' option for 2012 but let him walk afterwards unless he was willing to sign a 3 or 4 year deal at $11MM per. If he requires more than $11MM annually (which he likely will), I'd offer him arb, let him walk and take the picks.

I would not offer arb to Hermida or Lewis. Too many options for LF in AAA (unless one or more of those guys is traded at the deadline.) Jury is still out on Arredondo and Burton.