Originally Posted by RedsManRick
I don't doubt he's improved. But he has a .430 BABIP. That is massively unsustainable regardless of how good a hitter he is right now. I may have said organization, but I might have well as said the universe. Looking at true talent, what we can reasonable expect from a guy moving forward, the highest BABIP in the majors over the last 3 years (1500 PA) is Votto at .366. Only 3 other guys are at .350+.
Even if he's suddenly a world-class line drive hitter like Votto, Wright, Upton, Choo, and Bruan (the highest BABIP guys who aren't doing it with speed), he's still 70+ points above sustainable. If he's merely a very good major league hitter, he's 100+ above sustainable. And if he's average, he's 130 points above it. And that's more than 25% of his hits which will go away when he regresses.
So again, yeah, it looks like he's improved. But he's playing way over his head and there is no denying that.
If you are right, and I think you mostly are, that would put his adjusted OPS at about .740 based on some rough math. That's a pretty different picture thst mskes his 2011 look a lot like his 2010 including a roughly .315 OBP and a roughly .425 SLG.
I wonder if he's been in demand on the trade market. Seems like a sell high candidate to me. A different GM might take advantage of that. Of course in Cincy not much will happen.