Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by savafan

I have accepted that I'll never again see an all-star player retire in a Reds uniform.

That's the truth. It's an awful truth, but it's the nature of the beast (business). I love Brandon Phillips. I love his play, I love his interactions with fans. But I'm not paying him what he wants, over the length of time he wants, because it simply isn't good business for us. I'd rather let a guy go a year too early than a year too late. WOY bringing up Branch Rickey is a perfect example. He would've moved on without thinking twice about it.

[RedsManRick]

I do want the Reds to be on the hook for Phillips' decline phase. He'll be 32 heading in to 2013. 2B do NOT age well. Both Ryne Sanberg and Robbie Alomar quickly declined as they entered their mid 30s. Phillips seems like a good dude and he's averaged more than 4 WAR per season over the last 5 years. That's easily worth $12MM. But as the Arroyo contract very clearly demonstrates, the Reds need to pay people for what they're likely to do, not what they've done. Let somebody else pay Phillips big bucks as starts to lose it.

I'd extend him for next year and then either let him walk in 2012 or flip him at next year's deadline if we're out of the race.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

He's a 3-win player, tops. You don't pay $12 million for a 3-win player.

Well in consideration that he has averaged 4 WAR for the last 5 seasons, that's not really true especially since he has maintained that this year. He's more like a 5 WAR player tops, more than likely a 4 guy.

As he ages, he's more likely to slide to a 2.5-3 WAR as his bat and defense slides. For that reason I would look to trade him for a premium return (and at least pick up the option to play the year) because I don't like the long term value that is likely going to be had on his investment.

[CySeymour]

Originally Posted by savafan

I have accepted that I'll never again see an all-star player retire in a Reds uniform.

Babe Ruth didn't retire a Yankee.

Willie Mays didn't retire a Giant.

Hank Aaron didn't retire a Brave.

Ty Cobb didn't retire a Tiger.

Joe Morgan didn't retire a Red.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I do NOT want the Reds to be on the hook for Phillips' decline phase.

D'oh. I have a bad habit of doing that...

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by mth123

The Reds offer should be a 3 year front loaded deal with a vesting option for year 4. Year 1, $13 Million, year 2 $11 Million, Year 3 $9 Million. Year 4 an option at $12 Million that vests with 500 PAs in year 3. If the option doesn't vest the buy out is $2 Million.

I'm not overly excited about the Reds 2B options until the Torreyes/Hamiton duo arrive. Like Cozart, I think Gregorious may have a chance, but the bat might play at SS and be too light for 2B. H-Rod looks to have a chance with the bat, but I've read too many questions about his defense. I'd sign Phillips to bridge until Torreyes takes over. I don't want to suffer the drop in defense that will come with his departure and to come close to replacing it will require a big drop on the offensive side.

Yep, 3 years with an option is what I was thinking as well although I'd make 2012 the 1st of those 3 years. But, I'd want it for a little less money. I think BP has said that it's not about the money. If that's true make him prove it.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I'd talk to Phillips to gauge his interest and money expectations first. If it's anything more than $6 million per year, I'd deal him-- perhaps this offseason. He's the top 2B in the National League this year, everything considered.

A blockbuster deal that would makes sense for both sides would be to deal him to San Francisco. I'd think a Drew Stubbs and Brandon Phillips for Freddy Sanchez, Eric Surkamp, and Sergio Romo swap would be attractive to both teams.

Phillips would help the Giant offense a bit, if only because he stays healthier than Sanchez and has more power. His defense would allow San Francisco to shop for a FA SS like, say, Marco Scutaro, who doesn't have as much range, but still carries a plus bat. Stubbs would become the Giant CF and provide good power and range. He'd have been their best full-time OF this season (not counting Beltran). Add the two to the rest of the 2012 Giant team and you might actually have an above average San Francisco offense.

Romo becomes the Red closer, a vital role filled more than capably on the cheap. (That's the holy trinity of Redszone usefullness right there-- good, cheap, and underrated.) He's blocked by Wilson with the G-Men, and they have other options in a deep, deep bullpen, so, while he would be missed, he is replaceable. This would have the added benefit of allowing Jocketty and company to move Chapman to the rotation, as Romo is basically who the Reds want Chapman to become, perephially.

Freddy Sanchez balances out the salaries a bit but provides an above average option in Phillips' absence. (He'd be a nice bet to really take off with the GABP as home park, too. He might end up with 15 dingers in Cincinnati and a 300/340/425/765 line. Solid, that.) He is older, at 34, but, with Cairo (and perhaps Valaika) around, you might be able to gamble for a year or two on the veteran. He's a nice number two hitter as well.

Surkamp is a nice lefty prospect with middling stuff but success at the minor league level. In other words, he's Travis Wood without the big league experience. He'd be another arm to add to the mix, perhaps allowing Jocketty and company to deal from excess quantity to find quality in another deal later on.

Anything more than $6 million? 1998 called. It wants its salary-averages for MLB players back.

BP will command around $9-10 mil per. Someone will give it to him if the Reds don't. But the Reds shouldn't even worry about any of that this offseason. Just pick up his option and see what happens.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

Anything more than $6 million? 1998 called. It wants its salary-averages for MLB players back.

BP will command around $9-10 mil per. Someone will give it to him if the Reds don't.

Amen. Just another case of the non-flexible budget. One of the Reds' best players should be rewarded. Jay Bruce gets what I considered a huge contract given his on again, off again performance, and there are more examples. Like many other Reds, appreciate Brandon. Flexible budget be damned. Put the product on the field and watch the success. Cheap it and take players off the trash bin (Freddy Lewis comes to mind) and you get what you deserve.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Amen. Just another case of the non-flexible budget. One of the Reds' best players should be rewarded. Jay Bruce gets what I considered a huge contract given his on again, off again performance, and there are more examples. Like many other Reds, appreciate Brandon. Flexible budget be damned. Put the product on the field and watch the success. Cheap it and take players off the trash bin (Freddy Lewis comes to mind) and you get what you deserve.

Of course the Reds are paying Bruce for his prime, where as Phillips has seen his prime and it was several years ago. He is likely to decline going forward both offensively and defensively. I would rather someone else pay for that.

With that said, I would pick up his option for next year. You don't want to be stuck with no second baseman next year because you weren't able to find a guy in free agency and the Reds simply don't have an internal option for second base ready for April 2012. I would pick up the option and re-evaluate things in August 2012 after seeing most of the season from guys like Didi Gregorius and Henry Rodriguez in AA/AAA.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Well in consideration that he has averaged 4 WAR for the last 5 seasons, that's not really true especially since he has maintained that this year. He's more like a 5 WAR player tops, more than likely a 4 guy.

As he ages, he's more likely to slide to a 2.5-3 WAR as his bat and defense slides. For that reason I would look to trade him for a premium return (and at least pick up the option to play the year) because I don't like the long term value that is likely going to be had on his investment.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...hillbr01.shtml

I'm seeing 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.6, and 3.0 over the past 5 years, with a DWAR slightly negative.

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Of course the Reds are paying Bruce for his prime, where as Phillips has seen his prime and it was several years ago. He is likely to decline going forward both offensively and defensively. I would rather someone else pay for that.

With that said, I would pick up his option for next year. You don't want to be stuck with no second baseman next year because you weren't able to find a guy in free agency and the Reds simply don't have an internal option for second base ready for April 2012. I would pick up the option and re-evaluate things in August 2012 after seeing most of the season from guys like Didi Gregorius and Henry Rodriguez in AA/AAA.

Unless one of those guys tears through AA/AAA without ANY problems the Reds probably won't have an internal replacement in April 2013 either. And even when they think they have someone ready chances are it WON'T be one of those rare prospects that will hit from the get go when they make it to the majors. Maybe BP will still resign after next year. I don't think the Reds should wait til then though. Banking on a Reds prospect to be ready to take over that soon is wishful thinking.

[Phhhl]

We should do everything within our power to sign Brandon to a three year deal. By "we" I mean the Reds. He obviously wants a longer commitment, but what makes the proposition difficult on the organization's side is the length. I eyeball two or three defensive plays every week that very few second basemen in all of baseball make. I am willing to gamble that he will still be making those plays three years from now. I don't believe statistical defensive metrics are sophisticated enough at this point to quantify that. In addition, he is still an exceptional offensive player at his position, even with the decline in stolen bases.

The Reds should be comfortable frontloading a three year deal to Phillips with a reasonable expectation that he will be able to perform at a high level during it's life. Beyond those three years is where the larger markets have the advantage, with the resources to absorb the sunk cost as a trade off.

If Brandon REALLY wants to be a Red for the forseeable future, it should not be all that complicated.

[oneupper]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

Anything more than $6 million? 1998 called. It wants its salary-averages for MLB players back.

BP will command around $9-10 mil per. Someone will give it to him if the Reds don't. .

The REDS can't and shouldn't. He's not getting that kind of money elsewhere. If that's BP's bluff, call it.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...hillbr01.shtml

I'm seeing 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.6, and 3.0 over the past 5 years, with a DWAR slightly negative.

Check out Fangraphs -- paints a very different picture. Avg of 4.1 over the past 5 years, over 1 win of which comes from defense.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...91&position=2B

The difference basically comes down to baserunning & defense. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/

fWAR versus rWAR:

During 2010, Baseball-Reference unveiled a new feature: current and historical WAR values on each of its player pages. This WAR (referred to as rWAR) uses the same framework as FanGraphs’ version (fWAR), but has three main differences:

1. Pitcher Value: fWAR relies totally on FIP, making it a defense-independent metric, while rWAR adds in defensive runs saved as well.

2. Calculating Defense: Each system uses a different defensive metric. fWAR uses UZR, while rWAR uses TotalZone (developed by Sean Smith). UZR is more accurate but is only available from 2002 onward, while TotalZone values can be calculated for any player in baseball history.

3. Baserunning: rWAR includes this, while fWAR doesn’t.

As a result of these differences, rWAR values typically come in lower than fWAR values, meaning a 6 rWAR is more impressive than 6 fWAR. For more on the differences between fWAR and rWAR, please read these links: The Book Blog discussion, On Fielding Differences, and On Scaling.

fWAR is available on FanGraphs for any year in baseball history, but it is only calculated using UZR from 2002 onward. Any fWAR values earlier than that use TotalZone.

rWAR is available on Baseball-Reference for any year in baseball history.

[nate]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...hillbr01.shtml

I'm seeing 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.6, and 3.0 over the past 5 years, with a DWAR slightly negative.

Just a note, BR doesn't use the same defensive component to its WAR that Fangraphs does.