Who is Redszone's #16 prospect?

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by The DARK

The strikeout numbers aren't acceptable, but again, he's still young and in a pitcher's league. Juan Francisco had similar strikeout issues at that level, and less production. And from what I can tell, most of the strikeouts came towards the end of the year, where he's playing his first full season of minor league ball. Besides, if he can begin to avoid the strikeouts (one of the main things minor league coaches try to teach), you could project his production to go up even higher. Rosa will follow on my list soon, but I'm reserving judgement on him until we know what he's really capable of doing. Nothing against his credentials, but he hasn't put up the numbers in any decent league yet, and I'd like to see what his strengths and weaknesses really are before assessing him too strongly as a prospect.

Francisco had a high strikeout rate at Dayton. Duran's is prodigious.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by The DARK

The strikeout numbers aren't acceptable, but again, he's still young and in a pitcher's league. Juan Francisco had similar strikeout issues at that level, and less production. And from what I can tell, most of the strikeouts came towards the end of the year, where he's playing his first full season of minor league ball. Besides, if he can begin to avoid the strikeouts (one of the main things minor league coaches try to teach), you could project his production to go up even higher. Rosa will follow on my list soon, but I'm reserving judgement on him until we know what he's really capable of doing. Nothing against his credentials, but he hasn't put up the numbers in any decent league yet, and I'd like to see what his strengths and weaknesses really are before assessing him too strongly as a prospect.

Juan Francisco at the same level struck out 32% less often than Juan Duran did. It isn't really comparable. As for most of them coming towards the end of the year.... that is true, kind of. The reason more came later, is because he had a lot more at bats in the final two months than he had in the first three. He actually had much lower strikeout rates in the final two months of the season than he did the first three, by a large amount. He was well over 40% in the first three months, and in the mid 30's in the final two months.

As for Rosa and wanting to see something.... I guess I can get that to an extent, but the Reds seem to know what they are doing when drafting don't they? They thought enough of this kid to spend a 2nd round pick on him.

[camisadelgolf]

The deeper you go into counts, the more often you're going to strike out. Unlike Francisco, Duran has shown a willingness to look at a pitch with three balls or two strikes, which bodes well for his future but inflates his strikeout totals. Also, Don't get me wrong--he obviously has a ton to work on--but I just feel like people are being a little too harsh about the strikeouts. As a side note, I can't help but wonder whether Fifth Third Field has something to do with it. My feeling is that players struck out more than any other stadium in the league by a long shot.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

As a side note, I can't help but wonder whether Fifth Third Field has something to do with it. My feeling is that players struck out more than any other stadium in the league by a long shot.

How is a field affecting strikeouts?

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Superdude

How is a field affecting strikeouts?

Players are able to see the ball better in some fields than others. Some have batters eyes, better lighting, better weather, etc.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Superdude

How is a field affecting strikeouts?

Theoretically speaking:
Lighting
Batters Eye
Pitchers Mound

With that said, I doubt any of those reasons are issues at 5/3.

[The DARK]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Juan Francisco at the same level struck out 32% less often than Juan Duran did. It isn't really comparable. As for most of them coming towards the end of the year.... that is true, kind of. The reason more came later, is because he had a lot more at bats in the final two months than he had in the first three. He actually had much lower strikeout rates in the final two months of the season than he did the first three, by a large amount. He was well over 40% in the first three months, and in the mid 30's in the final two months.

As for Rosa and wanting to see something.... I guess I can get that to an extent, but the Reds seem to know what they are doing when drafting don't they? They thought enough of this kid to spend a 2nd round pick on him.

Hmm, hadn't seen those stats before. That's encouraging to see Duran get it together more towards the end of the year, since I was going off of the game threads I had seen where he had a few poor performances towards the end of the year. Still, every raw prospect in our system has had flaws in his game exposed at that level; high strikeout rates are something that tends to improve with experience and decent coaching, unlike mechanical flaws or confidence issues that can follow a guy and seriously impede progress. I'd say Duran has a lot less holding him back than many at his level, and I won't sweat the strikeout rate until he's in AA and hasn't improved.

I wasn't completely sold on the Rosa pick and thought it was a bit of an overdraft, but maybe that's just because there weren't many touting him and we already have a lot of raw guys with even higher upside in Dayton. It didn't seem like we needed to waste a high draft pick on more, given how active we are in the free agent market in that part of the world anyway. I'll trust the scouts, but my gut says we could have done more with that pick.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Not enough info to vote for Rosa. I admittedly didn't keep up much this season, almost not at all. But if someone wants to toss up a scouting report even of a general nature I'm willing to listen. The same goes for Cingrani. I'm not overly enamored with Duran though I did think he made some decent strides this season which is always a good thing. Otherwise I'll throw my vote away on someone who has no chance of winning the poll and my pick Ryan LaMarre.

LaMarre it is then.