University of Kentucky Men's Basketball -- 7th Edition

[Hoosier Red]

Some praise from Basketball Prospectus.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=771

This year already looks like it will represent a return to the old Calipari ways on D. Opponents have managed just 0.77 points per possession, and no one’s scored a point per trip against UK. (Portland holds the current record: 0.91 points per possession in their 87-63 loss to the Cats in Lexington last Saturday. Eric Reveno, I salute you!) And as if to make things easy for you, the viewer of tomorrow’s game, Kentucky has concentrated all of their defensive excellence into just one category: defending shots. Everything else — rebounding, forcing turnovers, etc. — is just what you’d see from a normal team, but when it comes to forcing misses UK’s on another planet. This year opponents have made just 33 percent of their twos and 27 percent of their threes.

Give a lot of the credit for that first number to 6-10 freshman Anthony Davis, who’s blocking an absurd 17 percent of opponents’ twos during his minutes. Even better he’s doing it without fouling — this kid can be on the floor whenever Calipari wishes.

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by cumberlandreds

Anyone watch last night? A pretty incredible defensive performance. 18 blocks with 8 of those by Davis. This team may turn out to be one of UK's best defensive teams of all time. They are already way ahead of last seasons team defensively. When the offense catches up they could be something else.
The big game is tomorrow, UNC. Who shoots the three the best may well win this game.

Our best three point shooter (freshman PJ Hairston) is out after injuring wrist Wednesday against Wisconsin. So I doubt UNC will be much of a three shooting threat tomorrow.

[Scrap Irony]

Henson's stronger than Davis and has more experience.

Zeller and Jones should come close to canceling each other out offensively.

Barnes and Miller/ Kidd-Gilchrist look about even at this point. (Though Barnes could go all Jerry Stackhouse on Sunday-- he just hasn't broken out yet.)

The PG match-up is between a guy that makes too many turnovers and another that can't guard or shoot. Call it a draw.

The question is that shooting guard spot. If Lamb is on-- even a little bit-- it could cause problems for Carolina.

However, I suspect Williams might move McAdoo into the game early as another big body, with Barnes sliding over to the two. (I love that lineup for UNC, as Barnes already handles the ball well enough to be a two, while the three-headed troika of McAdoo, Henson, and Zeller can all shoot well enough to nail the 15-footer. That means they'll have to be played honestly.) If that happens, it'll depend on who can make the shots.

[WMR]

so...........

what team is Scrap predicting achieves victory tomorrow?

[Puffy]

Well, I haven't watched any Kentucky games so far this year so I don't think I can comment on the match ups.

But, as for Carolina, I can give comments. Zeller has not played exceptionally well yet this year so that concerns me. He will turn it on, but when I have no idea. Henson has been exceptional. I mean off the charts. His growth since he was a freshman has been awesome to watch. Barnes is Barnes. He will put up between 16 and 22 every night and if he gets hot look out. He held Singler three times last year when he felt challenged so we could see him really step up his D tomorrow. Just something to look for. James Michael McAdoo is good. Real good. We don't lose anything when he enters game for either Henson or Zeller.

Strickland is best perimeter defender we have. Not much offensively in half court game but super fast in transition. And he can lock down. Marshall is better defender than you think. UNLV took him to school but he came back when matched up against Taylor. Kept him in front of him and used his help. Taylor was 6 of 20. Hairston is out and that hurts. Kid has range and is good rebounder. Bullock is coming on. Last year was really a lost year for him. He had problems with his shot, then got hurt for year. But he looks good now and he can shoot so he and Barnes are three ball threats to watch out for. That said, if they make 5 between them that would be a lot.

Again, I haven't saw any Kentucky games but I would expect them to collapse low on Henson, Zeller and then guard Barnes with Kidd-Gilcrest. If Barnes gets hot them I expect them to double him and dare Marshall and Dex to beat them. If Barnes doesn't get hot and MKG guards him one on one Carolina better hope post game can dominate/cause fouls trouble. I was confident that UNC would win this game coming into season. But, with way UNC has played so far this year, I am now leaning other way. I think on kentucky's home floor they win. Roy's UNC teams seem to peak late, not early. This team seems no different. Should be battle but Kentucky most likely wins.

[5TimeWSChamps]

I think Hairston plays tomorrow.

My quick matchup breakdown:

Davis > Henson, Hes basically Henson with a more refined offensive game.
Jones > Zeller, Zeller's been struggling thus far, but if he "gets it" tomorrow, this could be flipped.
Barnes > MKG/Miller, Will be interesting to see if Barnes is assertive and drives or settles for jumpers like hes prone to do.
Lamb = Strickland
Marshall > Teague

Bench - Even, Not having Hairston helps Balance this out. While different players, McAdoo/Miller are both vital to the team.

Homecourt advantage will be the biggest factor in a 7 pt UK win

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by WMR

so...........

what team is Scrap predicting achieves victory tomorrow?

I don't know, honestly.

Kentucky hasn't been a great offensive team all year, save one game against Penn State. They have shooters that aren't shooting well. They have three legitimate 50% 3-point shooters on that team. Add in Jones, who's almost figured out what a good shot truly is and when to shoot and the Cats could put four guys on the court with an overall 3-point percentage north of one in two. What other team in America can say that?

That said, they just haven't shot well so far, and you have to think North Carolina's length and athleticism means that coming out party will wait at least one more game.

I also keep waiting for Barnes to truly become the player ESPN insists he already is. He's scoring at a decent clip, but he doesn't rebound or pass the ball (at all) and he doesn't block any shots or steal anything. Yet. Basically, he's been Doron Lamb with a bit more length. And he's better than that. A lot better, IMO.

Same thing with Zeller. With Henson being so much better, I would have though Zeller would have made a living at the elbow of the lane or even as a secondary post-up player (as Henson makes some great passes out of double teams). He's really struggled in that area.

If Carolina goes big, I think they'll be able to push Kentucky around a bit. (Davis just doesn't get very low, and, IMO, never will.) If that happens, it'll be interesting to see how Kentucky responds.

I vacillate, but, right now, I think I like Carolina by four, 76-72. UK goes under 40% for the night shooting, while Reggie Bullock gets hot and scores 15+ on deep threes. Cal's first loss at Rupp.

[WVRed]

Some thoughts:

1. While I think UNC could run four bigs as Scrap said, I could see Kentucky countering with a small lineup of Teague, Lamb, MKG, Miller, and Jones. It creates mismatches, but mismatches slice both ways. Cal went small last year during a pivotal point in the game and Henson picked up his fourth foul on a three point play by Darius Miller.

2. I know this won't happen (at least during by Kentucky), but I would like to see a team run a 1-3-1 zone against UNC. The zone negates Kendall Marshall's passing ability and shuts down the post players, forcing Barnes, Bullock, and the like to beat you from three. Unlike UNC teams of the past, I don't see anybody who can consistently shoot. Hairston is the best option and he is out for this game.

3. As much as the home court advantage is mentioned, I think revenge is what will be on the mind of UNC players. It won't erase getting to the Final Four, but I'm sure the UNC players wouldn't mind knocking off UK in Rupp as a consolation prize.

4. I'm going with Dickie V's prediction, 74-71 Cats. If UNC shows they can hit the three, that changes.

5. This will be the final game of the UK-UNC regular season rivalry. The contract is up and UK is looking to balance their schedule with going to Louisville, another Big East school, and playing neutral site games against Maryland and Duke next season. UK is supposedly looking to add either Kansas, Arizona, Texas, or WVU, according to KSR.

[WVRed]

One hour til gametime. Can't wait.

[WVRed]

UNC is hitting the three well, 6-9 from deep. Hairston is playing and has two of them.

UK really needs to clamp down on perimeter defense and get Lamb and Davis more involved or its going to be a loss. Hopefully they come out like they did against Kansas.

[TeamSelig]

Wow this game is reminding me of the UK/WVU game where they refused to miss a 3PT shot

[dabvu2498]

Pretty much as good a game as you'll ever see in early December.

[WVRed]

Originally Posted by dabvu2498

Pretty much as good a game as you'll ever see in early December.

No doubt. I'd be interested in hearing Ole Roy's comments after the game. Judging by the reaction by the UNC players, they thought Henson was fouled by Davis instead of it being a clean block. UNC had enough time to foul and make UK beat them from the foul line, instead stood around as UK ran out the clock. One of the wildest finishes I can ever remember.

[Scrap Irony]

Roy Williams is a class act. His presser should be shown to all prospective big-time coaches (and high school coaches and lower level coaches) on how to react after a tough loss.

"I like my team's effort, I like my team, but I'm disappointed in the outcome of this game."

I thought Zeller was fouled at the end, but Davis was absolutely clean on Henson. The game as a whole, I thought, was played hard, but clean. Neither team wolfed too much. Both teams got some breaks. Kentucky's shooting will get better (though it did get much better after the first half). North Carolina's defense will get better (though I thought it was good pretty much throughout the game).

Four Kentucky players in double figures. The biggest of those were the 17 for Kidd-Gilchrist, who canceled out Barnes, and Lamb's late, long heroics. Miller also played remarkably well off the bench as well. No one in the country is as good as he is off the bench. It's phenomenal 1) that he's willing to do it with no ego bruising, and, 2) that other teams don't key on him. When Miller comes in, the offense goes through him. He's the de-facto UK PG at this point.

Speaking of guards, Carolina's certainly proved me wrong. They all shot well. Really, really well from 3-point range. Hairston played very well, as did Bullock. (Were I Williams, I don't know if I could continue to play both Strickland and Marshall at the same time. The ability to stretch defenses will be key as they continue through to March. It would also give lanes to Barnes (who still refuses to drive to the hoop) and open area for Henson and Zeller to work (both of whom could then rebound better with fewer people around.

I think these two teams, along with Ohio State, are without a doubt the best in the country. Syracuse is decent, Florida is okay, Duke is alright. Louisville could surprise, as all these injuries could help a ton later. UConn I haven't seen, so I'll reserve judgment.

[jmac]

I think the game was well played and both teams seem to play with respect for each other.
Out of the teams I have seen so far (which isnt all of the top 25), it does also appear to me that UK-UNC-Ohio State are in a totally different tier from the rest. Not saying one of these cant be beat as UNC was last week, but it would take a super effort by another team if these teams bring it on that night.