Alonso .850 OPS or a mirage?

[Mario-Rijo]

I have maintained I don't much believe in the guys bat (and definitely not in the rest of his game). I realize a vast majority of you disagree and that's fine, I've been wrong before I can live with it again. He had a nice 1st long stretch of MLB PA's that seems to have won a bunch of folks over. A .943 OPS will do that to people. But I just want to know for the record who believes he is for real? You can even add why if you like but I just want folks to get on the side of the fence they think he will end up and an .850 OPS or better is a good number to determine whether he is "legit" or not.

Just for the record I say trade him now, he will never bring back anything more and I don't believe he will be a very productive major leaguer so keeping him is a bad idea regardless. Frankly I think once teams figure him out he'll be lucky to get to .800 consistently but I think .850 or better will reflect that he was never worth keeping over trading his currently high value.

*POLL coming*

[REDREAD]

If we get an 800 OPS out of Alonso next year, I will be happy.
Expecting more from any rookie playing out of position is just setting yourself up for disappointment, IMO.

Honestly, I would love to trade him for pitching or even a true LF.
His bat will help the lineup, no doubt, but I don't think assuming an 850 OPS next season is really realistic. I do hope I'm wrong though.

I'd just really hate to see the club assume that Alonso is going to hold down the #4 spot behind Votto. (I don't think Dusty thinks that way, but some posters here do.. not criticizing or calling anyone out).

[Kc61]

I think Alonso can hit. I think he will be an above .800 OPS bat, if not immediately, then very soon.

But, folks, an OPS alone doesn't make a top flight outfielder. Alonso is a sub-standard left fielder. He doesn't run well. He isn't an all around top LF prospect IMO.

How about as a first baseman? Alonso will probably defend adequately at first base. So the question then is whether his bat is good enough to be a top first baseman. The top first basemen are great power threats, guys like Pujols, Fielder, Votto, Tex, Ryan Howard, etc.

I think the jury is out on whether Alonso's bat can carry him to elite first baseman status. Among other things, I'd like to see how he does against LHP in the big leagues.

My guess right now is that Alonso will hit well enough to be a solid, but not elite, first baseman.

Alonso is currently blocked at first base on the Reds. That's his position. I would try to trade him. If not possible, then he will play some LF, he will hit adequately or better, and there will be a defensive hole in LF.

[IslandRed]

I think he's for real, in the sense that he's already pretty good at the plate and he doesn't appear to have any glaring weaknesses that are going to prevent him from continuing to improve. He's healthy, after that power-sapping wrist injury in the minors. Everything about his plate approach is solid -- he doesn't go up there hacking, he seems to have good pitch recognition, good contact skills by the standards of power hitters, hits a lot of line drives, will go to the opposite field.

So where does that put him? I don't know. .850 is a pretty high bar (would have been eighth in MLB for first basemen last season) and "not as productive as Votto" seems to be a given, but I don't really worry about him hitting. I worry about where he'll play or, if he doesn't play here, what he'll fetch in a trade.

[RedsManRick]

I can understand thinking he may not have as much power as some suggest, but I don't know how one can either watch him or look at his stats and not believe in the bat at a basic level.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

If we get an 800 OPS out of Alonso next year, I will be happy.
Expecting more from any rookie playing out of position is just setting yourself up for disappointment, IMO.

Honestly, I would love to trade him for pitching or even a true LF.
His bat will help the lineup, no doubt, but I don't think assuming an 850 OPS next season is really realistic. I do hope I'm wrong though.

I'd just really hate to see the club assume that Alonso is going to hold down the #4 spot behind Votto. (I don't think Dusty thinks that way, but some posters here do.. not criticizing or calling anyone out).

I don't necessarily mean next year, just going forward do you think he projects to be good enough to not cash in on his perceived value right now? .850 is maybe too high a bar but I think if he cannot do that going forward then we should deal him now. He's not a real good defender or a very good runner so his bat has to carry him.

I don't think I am gonna be giving him much of a mulligan for playing out of position in this case, he's had alot of time to get prepared for it what with his Louisville time out there and all offseason to prepare. If he does even OPS .800 this year (with a full season worth of PA's or at least more than half) then I might be impressed enought o change my mind. I hinestly think he likely start off with a bang and come crashing down hard pre-AS break, ending the season with most everyone not knowing what to expect because "he put up such great numbers the 98 PA's before that".

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I can understand thinking he may not have as much power as some suggest, but I don't know how one can either watch him or look at his stats and not believe in the bat at a basic level.

I simply think his swing is too long thru the zone and that is basically the only big issue I see with it and if so then that is enough to render him less than worth keeping right now. I don't have any problem with the rest of his offensive game. I just wonder if it is too long can he ever fix it. I think at best his game might be Carlos Pena like but just with much less pure power but with a better eye (which is really about all Carlos has). Pena seems to have always had the same issue but with greater raw power.

[Benihana]

Wow, recycling old polls that aren't even a month old. We really, really need some action to talk about, Walt.

[mdccclxix]

Isn't this very similar to the "Predict Alonso's OPS thread"?

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Wow, recycling old polls that aren't even a month old. We really, really need some action to talk about, Walt.

I wasn't a part of a previous poll, guess I must have missed that thread completely. Sorry...

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Isn't this very similar to the "Predict Alonso's OPS thread"?

I didn't read it but from the poll title it sounds like it was meant for 2012, mine is meant to establish who believes he is good in '12 and beyond.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I don't necessarily mean next year, just going forward do you think he projects to be good enough to not cash in on his perceived value right now? .850 is maybe too high a bar but I think if he cannot do that going forward then we should deal him now. He's not a real good defender or a very good runner so his bat has to carry him.
.

I would prefer to cash Alonso in a trade. He has more value to other teams (that need a cheap 1b/DH than he does to us).
You're right, this may be the peak of his trade value.
Honestly, I wouldn't mind trading him for a the right relief pitcher, especially if we can pick up a decent LF for Volquez or other spare parts (not a given).

There's a genuine risk that the Reds keep Alosno for 3 years, he hits well, but not elete and then has very little value as his salary bumps up. Averagish 1b really don't have a lot of trade value. So your point is well taken. He put up great numbers last year.. if someone is drooling over his potential, maybe now is the time to cash in.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

I wasn't a part of a previous poll, guess I must have missed that thread completely. Sorry...

No worries- wasn't meant to criticize but more to observe that we really do need some real Hot Stove action to discuss.

[mth123]

I suspect yes eventually. Assuming it will happen in his first full year is too much hoping and not enough forecasting. But even at .775 to .825 OPS he's still the best bet to be the team's second or third best offensive player.

[jojo]

I think he's going to hit.