New Approach: Find a 2013 FA SP to Acquire

[mdccclxix]

This beating of head upon wall trying to obtain a:

1) #1 or #2 starter that is
2) Young, and that is
3) Cost controlled, that is
4) 3+ years away from FA...

is apparently quite a tall order. Understandably so.

Looking at the acquisition of a few TRUE aces over the last few years, they were had for, generally, a top 50, a top 100, a high upside guy, at least one great arm, usually 2.

If you could have one of:

Cliff Lee
Roy Halladay
Johan Santana

These players are true, true forces of gravity. The division will take notice upon their arrival.

Wouldn't that be preferable to Gio, Jurrens & Shields in 2012?

Well, I encourage you to observe what those players cost their receiving teams. The problem for the Reds is that their prospect arms are not in the top 50. In almost any deal for an ace, the dealing team MUST get a true pitching prospect (unless their filthy rich in arms and need bats - Rays!?!?!). Would you be happy with less than a top 50 pitching prospect for Cueto? No.

That said, I think the Reds can get what they need, for 2012 at least, for what they'd be willing to do without in the short term (Alonso, Grandal, etc, etc, you know the players). No, it's not a long term thing, but signing that player to an extension may be possible as well.

To me, Matt Cain is a guy that I'd like to target, but it seems SF would love to keep him.

Other #1/#2 2013 FA's

Matt Cain (28)
John Danks (28)
Ryan Dempster (36)
Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option
Zack Greinke (28)
Cole Hamels (29)
Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout
Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Carlos Zambrano (32) - $19.25MM player option depending on Zambrano's Cy Young voting placement

OK, I watered it down a bit. But to me, this crop would be easier to begin prying from their teams. Payroll is a huge consideration, but paying more in prospects would lead to cash coming our way. For example, I wonder if we could get Zambrano for, like, Frazier and Corcino, with them kicking in 10 million just to be rid of the headache. I know all the trouble Z brings, but he knows Dusty yada yada and my point is only to show that an upgrade to the rotation is actually much easier in this buy low effort. Walt is a buy low guy. Edmonds, Carpenter, Macgwire. Peavy is another fit.

If Walt is loathe to spend his prospect chips, then he needs to lower his sights and take on other forms of risk. The market is the market.

[mdccclxix]

The market is the market and 2012 is 2012, MUST WIN!

[RedlegJake]

I'd be trying to get Z right now with a couple prospects and a chunk of salary coming our way. I'd risk the headache with Dusty handling him if the Cubs are serious about wanting him gone and are willing to pay a big enough chunk. Epstein says he wants prospects. The Reds got 'em.

[mth123]

It would have to be a sweet deal. Something expendable like Chris Valaika and Jordan Smith for Zambrano and $15 Million. Not sure there are many bullets left in his gun and even if the Cubs cover all the money, I wouldn't give up a top trade chip unless its somebody I'm confident will actually fix the rotation. The Reds have question marks in spades. Adding another who might be a bad apple doesn't seem like a fix. Even if you could get him on a favorable deal, I'd still be looking to add some one with more certainty.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Cain
Danks
Floyd

In that order is who I'd try to obtain.

[mdccclxix]

Kenny Williams has said he wants an Ubaldo type return for one of Danks or Floyd. Prior to Ubaldo's trade, in the early going, the Rox said they wanted a Hershal Walker type deal. They certainly didn't get that, but they did get two top 50 or 100 arms. I feel like Danks or Floyd would definitely cost Corcino.

My list refine from above would be:

Floyd
Dempster
Cain

Everyone else is on a "win now" team, with the exception of Cain. But SF's historically bad offense could use an upgrade and I think we could help them if we included one of our #4/#5 starters in the deal. Volquez and Heisey and ?

But if I was Walt I'd shift my attention to Chicago's north and south side.

[Benihana]

I like the idea of trying to buy low on Peavy. He was one of the best pitchers in the game two years ago. Hopefully he could have a Pete Harnisch-like resurgence.

Dan Haren might be interesting on a shorter term (2 or at most 3 year deal) if the Angels run out of money after this offseason.

I'd also be interested in kicking the tires on Cole Hamels, assuming the Phillies can't afford to pay 3 pitchers $60MM+. Unfortunately though, that's probably a pipedream.

I think Cain will re-sign with the Jints, and Greinke will be unaffordable (likely as will Hamels).

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

I'd be trying to get Z right now with a couple prospects and a chunk of salary coming our way. I'd risk the headache with Dusty handling him if the Cubs are serious about wanting him gone and are willing to pay a big enough chunk. Epstein says he wants prospects. The Reds got 'em.

If we're going to trade prospects for a Cubs starting pitcher, it better be Garza.

Zambrano is going to Miami if he goes anywhere IMO, and that's just fine by me. The guy destroys the clubhouse, both literally and figuratively.

[mdccclxix]

Yeah, Zambrano wouldn't like Cincinnati, either. He'd blame his poor outings on GABP. I'm scratching Z off the list, but Dempster on the other hand, I think, would be a decent pick up. His FIP and xFIP is pretty consistently in the mid 3's. Give him the Reds defense and I think he'd be great.

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Yeah, Zambrano wouldn't like Cincinnati, either. He'd blame his poor outings on GABP. I'm scratching Z off the list, but Dempster on the other hand, I think, would be a decent pick up. His FIP and xFIP is pretty consistently in the mid 3's. Give him the Reds defense and I think he'd be great.

The irony is that we HAD Dempster at one time and let him go.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Wonder what type of haul the Halos would want for Haren.. He'd be a good fit as he was a Reds target a few years back when in Oakland. I'd include Hamilton in a deal for a Haren.

[Vottomatic]

I think the Reds need to sign a free agent quality starting pitcher, like Oswalt. Not only does it fill a need, but it sends a message to potential trading partners that we're not messing around.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

Wonder what type of haul the Halos would want for Haren.. He'd be a good fit as he was a Reds target a few years back when in Oakland. I'd include Hamilton in a deal for a Haren.

Angels aren't trading Haren. They're in all-in mode right now after the big signings. If we/anyone have any chance of acquiring Haren, it will be as a FA next offseason if, as I said, the Angels ever run out of money.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

This beating of head upon wall trying to obtain a:

1) #1 or #2 starter that is
2) Young, and that is
3) Cost controlled, that is
4) 3+ years away from FA...

is apparently quite a tall order. Understandably so.

Looking at the acquisition of a few TRUE aces over the last few years, they were had for, generally, a top 50, a top 100, a high upside guy, at least one great arm, usually 2.

If you could have one of:

Cliff Lee
Roy Halladay
Johan Santana

These players are true, true forces of gravity. The division will take notice upon their arrival.

Wouldn't that be preferable to Gio, Jurrens & Shields in 2012?

Well, I encourage you to observe what those players cost their receiving teams. The problem for the Reds is that their prospect arms are not in the top 50. In almost any deal for an ace, the dealing team MUST get a true pitching prospect (unless their filthy rich in arms and need bats - Rays!?!?!). Would you be happy with less than a top 50 pitching prospect for Cueto? No.

That said, I think the Reds can get what they need, for 2012 at least, for what they'd be willing to do without in the short term (Alonso, Grandal, etc, etc, you know the players). No, it's not a long term thing, but signing that player to an extension may be possible as well.

To me, Matt Cain is a guy that I'd like to target, but it seems SF would love to keep him.

Other #1/#2 2013 FA's

Matt Cain (28)
John Danks (28)
Ryan Dempster (36)
Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option
Zack Greinke (28)
Cole Hamels (29)
Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout
Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Carlos Zambrano (32) - $19.25MM player option depending on Zambrano's Cy Young voting placement

OK, I watered it down a bit. But to me, this crop would be easier to begin prying from their teams. Payroll is a huge consideration, but paying more in prospects would lead to cash coming our way. For example, I wonder if we could get Zambrano for, like, Frazier and Corcino, with them kicking in 10 million just to be rid of the headache. I know all the trouble Z brings, but he knows Dusty yada yada and my point is only to show that an upgrade to the rotation is actually much easier in this buy low effort. Walt is a buy low guy. Edmonds, Carpenter, Macgwire. Peavy is another fit.

If Walt is loathe to spend his prospect chips, then he needs to lower his sights and take on other forms of risk. The market is the market.

I may be the biggest Matt Cain fan on this board. He has tended to fly under the radar for most of his career, but should he hit FA, his name will be in lights the premier starting pitcher available (no offense to Cole Hamels), if his agent is doing his job. I like your thought but he's gonna be a 15-20 million a year guy easily.

Edit - I see you are just talking about getting him as a rental for this year...sure if the price is right midseason.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I think the Reds need to sign a free agent quality starting pitcher, like Oswalt. Not only does it fill a need, but it sends a message to potential trading partners that we're not messing around.

But to get a higher profile pitcher the Reds will no doubt have to overpay for him. Oswalt & Saunders are about the only ones I could project as a #1-#2...mostly #2. Saunders had a solid ERA but also allowed 29 Homers.. He does however go the distance; logging 212 innings. Oswalt is a name the Reds fans know all to well. He had some injuries in 2011 that may hinder him but he is that big name that could put butts in seats.