Latos' impact on the Reds SP

[nate]

In case you haven't heard, the Reds improved their starting pitching by acquiring Mat Latos. What's the impact?

At a very basic level, I think this is around a 4-win move for the Reds. This is the sum of Latos' addition and Volquez' subtraction. He instantly becomes the best strikeout pitcher and one of the best at keeping the ball in the park. He a little bit better than league average in walks but the 2010 Reds starters with 100 IP were also better than average.

I think he ends up complimenting the existing staff nicely. We would still benefit from adding another good starting pitcher and replacing Arroyo's dreadful 2011 with at least league average (note, this could come from Arroyo simply being better.)

How do you think Latos will impact the 2012 starting pitching?

As a visual, here's how Latos compares to Cueto and Leake:







And how he compares to Bailey and Arroyo:

[kaldaniels]

I hear you Nate. Latos plus a not historically bad Arroyo in 2012 will do wonders for this team. No guarantees but I don't see Arroyo being so putrid once again this year.

[nate]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I hear you Nate. Latos plus a not historically bad Arroyo in 2012 will do wonders for this team. No guarantees but I don't see Arroyo being so putrid once again this year.

Right, that's the best "net" the Reds could have hoped for. However, the second best "net" was replacing EV.

A league average Arroyo is even more of a boost, yes.

[Scrap Irony]

I think Arroyo improves simply because he's going to be the "fifth starter." He should be healthier, add back that lost mph or two he lost last season as a result of his mono, and log innings.

Bill James' projections says he'll go 4.00 ERA with a 4.68 FIP. If that happens, the Reds will win 100 games.

[mth123]

Add more innings from Cueto, Bailey and Leake replacing Wood and the soft underbelly of the bullpen (and keeping the pen fresher and avoiding a mid-June collapse) and this staff looks to be a lot better.

It won't all work out, but this staff should be much improved. One less question mark should have a domino effect on all the others.

[RANDY IN INDY]

I still like Travis Wood. I hope he can put it together and give the Reds a quality lefty in the rotation. He had some moments of brilliance.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY

I still like Travis Wood. I hope he can put it together and give the Reds a quality lefty in the rotation. He had some moments of brilliance.

I agree. I still think Wood will settle in nicely as a #3 starter in the big leagues.

[corkedbat]

I guess there's always the chance that BA could just be toast, but I think it's more likely that he reverts back to his 2009-10 form. Its very tough to perform when trying to recover from a mono-like illness that saps your strength reserves without time off & rest. Bronson IMO, should have been shutdown and put on a program to regain his strength - if not coming out of Spring Training, then some time in May or June.

I will be interested to see what an offseason of rest will do for him. I would deal Arroyo right now for the payflex, but if he comes out and performs as he did in 2009-10, he will certainly be worht having around - especially as the number four starter.

- The more time passes since the Latos deal, the more I like it. I think he is just what this rotation needed.

- Cueto may not have K'd as many batters per 9 as in previous years, but I saw a lot of maturity from him last year. I've got a feeling that he is just now reaching his prime.

- the thing I like most about Mike Leake is his head for the game. He doesn't have to rely on the speed of his fastball and has a very solid idea of what he needs to do to be successful for a kid so young with little MiL experience.

- There are a lot of teams out there right now with far worse options than Homer Bailey and Travis Wood for their 5th spot in the rotation. I've always been a big fan of Homer's and I'm hoping this is the year he stays healthy and puts it all together. if he does, he can challenge Leake and posible even Cueto as the second or third best starter in the rotation.

- Wood is nice to have as a lefty option, but he needs consistencey. He can look almost dominant at times and then go three of four outings where he looks putrid. If it would fill a hole elsewhere with a piece I really liked though, I would consider dangling either travis or Homer in a deal.

- I kind of expect to see 2012 as a wasted year for Aroldis Chapmanif they convert him to a starter. With no starts in winter ball, they will need to start stretching him out in spring training and then probably 8-10 starts in Louisville. By the time I think he may be ready for the Reds rotation, it may be almost time to shut him down due to innings worked. I'm not sure that he will be automatically successful in his conversion to starter and it is more than just a matter of stretching out his arm.

Chapman started before at Louisville with mixed results. You have to think that prolonged starting will draw down the top speed on AC's heater, but just how much remains to be seen. I also wonder how returning to the starting rotation will affect Chapman's control (one of the factors he had an issues with the first go round a starter.

I've seen that even if Aroldis reaches just one-third of his potential, that he Latos and Cueto would make for a dominant 1-2-3 in the rotation. That may or may not be true, but I will say that I am highly doubt it will come to be true at any point in 2012 for any significant stretch of the season. Chapman has the portential to become a TOR starter in time, but I don't see it happening until 2013 atthe earliest.

I love Aroldis and I am not trying to bring him down - just trying to be realistic. If I'm Walt though and I'm trying to go all-in to capitalize on having Joey Votto for two more years. I have to consider leaving Chapman in the bull pen where I'm retty sure he can dominate or I consider packaging him in a deal for maybe a closer and an outfielder (or even another starter) that I really like.

As far as rotational depth goes, I look at some of the second or even third-tier FA starters that are out there and try to sign a couple for spots in the Louisville rotation just in case. It was nice to have Dontrelle down there last year and I wish he was there this year (or in the Reds pen).

[Strikes Out Looking]

What upgrades by getting Latos is the bullpen -- Latos averages over six innings a start -- they guy WJ dumped in SD, Volquez did not average anywhere near that -- plus in many of his starts. So the longer starts equals less innings for the bullpen. Additionally, many of Volquez's starts had the bullpen up and warming in the early innings. This also added to bullpen wear and tear in 2011.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

I guess there's always the chance that BA could just be toast, but I think it's more likely that he reverts back to his 2009-10 form. Its very tough to perform when trying to recover from a mono-like illness that saps your strength reserves without time off & rest. Bronson IMO, should have been shutdown and put on a program to regain his strength - if not coming out of Spring Training, then some time in May or June.

I will be interested to see what an offseason of rest will do for him. I would deal Arroyo right now for the payflex, but if he comes out and performs as he did in 2009-10, he will certainly be worht having around - especially as the number four starter.

- The more time passes since the Latos deal, the more I like it. I think he is just what this rotation needed.

- Cueto may not have K'd as many batters per 9 as in previous years, but I saw a lot of maturity from him last year. I've got a feeling that he is just now reaching his prime.

- the thing I like most about Mike Leake is his head for the game. He doesn't have to rely on the speed of his fastball and has a very solid idea of what he needs to do to be successful for a kid so young with little MiL experience.

- There are a lot of teams out there right now with far worse options than Homer Bailey and Travis Wood for their 5th spot in the rotation. I've always been a big fan of Homer's and I'm hoping this is the year he stays healthy and puts it all together. if he does, he can challenge Leake and posible even Cueto as the second or third best starter in the rotation.

- Wood is nice to have as a lefty option, but he needs consistencey. He can look almost dominant at times and then go three of four outings where he looks putrid. If it would fill a hole elsewhere with a piece I really liked though, I would consider dangling either travis or Homer in a deal.

- I kind of expect to see 2012 as a wasted year for Aroldis Chapmanif they convert him to a starter. With no starts in winter ball, they will need to start stretching him out in spring training and then probably 8-10 starts in Louisville. By the time I think he may be ready for the Reds rotation, it may be almost time to shut him down due to innings worked. I'm not sure that he will be automatically successful in his conversion to starter and it is more than just a matter of stretching out his arm.

Chapman started before at Louisville with mixed results. You have to think that prolonged starting will draw down the top speed on AC's heater, but just how much remains to be seen. I also wonder how returning to the starting rotation will affect Chapman's control (one of the factors he had an issues with the first go round a starter.

I've seen that even if Aroldis reaches just one-third of his potential, that he Latos and Cueto would make for a dominant 1-2-3 in the rotation. That may or may not be true, but I will say that I am highly doubt it will come to be true at any point in 2012 for any significant stretch of the season. Chapman has the portential to become a TOR starter in time, but I don't see it happening until 2013 atthe earliest.

I love Aroldis and I am not trying to bring him down - just trying to be realistic. If I'm Walt though and I'm trying to go all-in to capitalize on having Joey Votto for two more years. I have to consider leaving Chapman in the bull pen where I'm retty sure he can dominate or I consider packaging him in a deal for maybe a closer and an outfielder (or even another starter) that I really like.

As far as rotational depth goes, I look at some of the second or even third-tier FA starters that are out there and try to sign a couple for spots in the Louisville rotation just in case. It was nice to have Dontrelle down there last year and I wish he was there this year (or in the Reds pen).

Very nice analysis of the current state of the staff in this post. I concur on Arroyo especially and keep harping on him being the senior member of the staff and he's just 34!

With Latos, we have quite a lot of depth either in reserve in Louisville or as chips for making the club even better.

[jojo]

Latos is a 4 win upgrade only if you think his true talent level is 4 wins better than Volquez. Last season, Volquez was essentially replacement level.

I think it's reasonable that Volquez could be a true talent 4.3 FIP guy over 180 innings arm (i.e. like a poor man's Jhoulys Chacin circa 2011). That's roughly a 2 win pitcher. For Latos to be 4 wins better than that, he's got to be a true talent 2.60 FIP arm over like 220 innings.

I'm very positive about the trade but I'm not sure his addition is as big of an impact as intuition suggests. Obviously alot of the calculus depends upon Volquez and estimating his true skill level at this point is a bit like reading chicken intestines. I'm pretty confident we know what we're getting with Latos barring injury issues (a 4 win pitcher). For comparison, Cueto was a 2.8 win pitcher last season and the next best pitcher in the rotation only posted a 1.5 WAR season (Leake/Bailey).

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I think Arroyo improves simply because he's going to be the "fifth starter." He should be healthier, add back that lost mph or two he lost last season as a result of his mono, and log innings.

Bill James' projections says he'll go 4.00 ERA with a 4.68 FIP. If that happens, the Reds will win 100 games.

I wouldn't slot Arroyo 5th. I would actually slot him 2nd. He is the guy who can give you innings and starts. The Reds do need that, especially going with the likes of Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Wood, or Chapman who haven't shown the ability to throw over 200 innings.

[OnBaseMachine]

Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P

I'm salivating.

[redsfan30]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Bill James' 2012 Mat Latos projection:

211 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 2.99 ERA, 3.11 FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...815&position=P

I think we could deal with that!