Who is Redszone's #17 prospect?

[mth123]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I was wondering if anyone would mind that I speed up a couple of the polls. Provided the rest of the prospects aren't traded, we should have no problem getting to #40 a week or two before Opening Day, but if I shorten a couple of polls in which a player jumps out to a big lead early (e.g. #17 would be given to Sulbaran tomorrow unless something drastic happens), we could probably get through 50.

Also, you may have noticed that I've been less consistent in keeping these on track the past couple weeks, but don't worry. Now that all the hustle and bustle surrounding the holidays is over, it shouldn't be a problem now.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by The DARK

Still going with one Amir Garrett. The only one out of the rest of this bunch with the possibility to be a TOR arm.

So a guy with a plus fastball and the best slider in the system (Tim Crabbe) doesn't have a chance to be a TOR arm? That's news to me. IMO, if he masters a third pitch, he should be a top-ten prospect in our entire system.

Crabbe has way more results than Garrett and is WAY closer to doing something in the bigs than Garrett. I think Crabbe has way more value, not that I'm not excited to have Garrett in the system.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I recall Greene being compared with Bip Roberts.

I don't think he is necessarily a backup. Fast, versatile. Steals bases, knocks in runs. Has a little power.

Haven't seen him in person, but sounds like a good prospect.

I don't know if I have heard the Bip Roberts comparisons for Greene.

I would obviously much rather have a Bip Roberts clone than a Miguel Cairo clone in my minor league system.

Looking over Bip's stats, I didn't realize he had a .392 OBP for the Reds in 1992.

It's kind of difficult to compare Bip's minor league stats to Greene's because Bip was a high school draftee and Greene came out of college. Bip tore up Low A when he was only 19 with a .419 OBP. When he hit High A the next year, he had an OBP of .358. Greene only had a .343 OBP in a hitter's league in his Age 23 season.

Bip was a helluva ballplayer. I think Greene has a lot of work to do to get to the Bip Roberts level.

For me, I'll take my choice of the arms with potential still over a guy who hasn't done much in High A.

[The DARK]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

So a guy with a plus fastball and the best slider in the system (Tim Crabbe) doesn't have a chance to be a TOR arm? That's news to me. IMO, if he masters a third pitch, he should be a top-ten prospect in our entire system.

Crabbe has way more results than Garrett and is WAY closer to doing something in the bigs than Garrett. I think Crabbe has way more value, not that I'm not excited to have Garrett in the system.

It'll be great if he can master a third pitch, but as of right now, it takes some serious stuff for a starter to be TOR with only a fastball and a slider (see Chapman's struggles in AAA). Given that Crabbe isn't reportedly a master of control either, I just don't see it translating to a full-season ERA below 3.50 against the best in the world. It's a long way from having the best slider in a pitching-anemic system to dominating with it in the majors.

If he can add an above-average third pitch and stick around as a starter in AA, then yes, he'll be in my top 10. And if he can make the reliever (perhaps closer) transition and still dominate (don't forget, it was difficult with Boxberger at first), he'll be top 15.

Garrett's a big unknown, but he was considered a possible supplemental pick before the draft, got that kind of money, and as a 6'6'' basketball-playing lefty is about as big of an arm as you can get. He's new to the game, so looking at his stuff right now isn't necessarily the best benchmark, but he already has a plus fastball in the mid-90's and promising secondary stuff with the athleticism to take advantage of it.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by The DARK

It's a long way from having the best slider in a pitching-anemic system to dominating with it in the majors.

It is a plus slider. Who is in the system doesn't change that. And to be honest, on an individual pitch basis, the system has plenty. There are plenty of arms with very good stuff. There just aren't a bunch of those who project as starters who also have good control too. But as far as live arms go, there are plenty of them in the system.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by The DARK

It'll be great if he can master a third pitch, but as of right now, it takes some serious stuff for a starter to be TOR with only a fastball and a slider (see Chapman's struggles in AAA). Given that Crabbe isn't reportedly a master of control either, I just don't see it translating to a full-season ERA below 3.50 against the best in the world. It's a long way from having the best slider in a pitching-anemic system to dominating with it in the majors.

If he can add an above-average third pitch and stick around as a starter in AA, then yes, he'll be in my top 10. And if he can make the reliever (perhaps closer) transition and still dominate (don't forget, it was difficult with Boxberger at first), he'll be top 15.

Garrett's a big unknown, but he was considered a possible supplemental pick before the draft, got that kind of money, and as a 6'6'' basketball-playing lefty is about as big of an arm as you can get. He's new to the game, so looking at his stuff right now isn't necessarily the best benchmark, but he already has a plus fastball in the mid-90's and promising secondary stuff with the athleticism to take advantage of it.

Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning here. You admit that Crabbe has two plus pitches and as doug said, it is a major league plus slider right now, but you go on to vote for a guy who has one plus pitch and no minor league results. Don't get me wrong, Garrett has a ton of upside. That being said, I kind of expect him to spend a full six years in the minor leagues developing. Crabbe already has three years of development behind him. Crabbe's control has improved his walk rate and now stands to have average control with a well-above average K rate. He also has had good home run suppression numbers throughout his career.

I expect to see Crabbe in the Pensacola rotation all year and I expect him to keep a strong K rate and hopefully see further improvement with his BB numbers. I hope Mario Soto spends some time with him so he can add a good change up along with his plus fastball and plus slider.

[The DARK]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

It is a plus slider. Who is in the system doesn't change that. And to be honest, on an individual pitch basis, the system has plenty. There are plenty of arms with very good stuff. There just aren't a bunch of those who project as starters who also have good control too. But as far as live arms go, there are plenty of them in the system.

I'm not saying it's not a plus pitch, but it takes a seriously good fastball and slider to be a TOR starter on that alone. I'm just saying that getting that "best slider in the system" accolade from a single source doesn't mean he has enough to be a TOR starter.

[The DARK]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Sorry, I don't follow your reasoning here. You admit that Crabbe has two plus pitches and as doug said, it is a major league plus slider right now, but you go on to vote for a guy who has one plus pitch and no minor league results. Don't get me wrong, Garrett has a ton of upside. That being said, I kind of expect him to spend a full six years in the minor leagues developing. Crabbe already has three years of development behind him. Crabbe's control has improved his walk rate and now stands to have average control with a well-above average K rate. He also has had good home run suppression numbers throughout his career.

I expect to see Crabbe in the Pensacola rotation all year and I expect him to keep a strong K rate and hopefully see further improvement with his BB numbers. I hope Mario Soto spends some time with him so he can add a good change up along with his plus fastball and plus slider.

I've got high hopes for Crabbe (he's actually next on my list, and given Garrett's lack of support, I'll probably vote for him next round), but that third pitch counts. You can't really hold Garrett's lack of a second plus pitch against him yet. Those first few years are very important in developing pitches, and you can bet that the coaches will be focusing on turning that secondary stuff into plus pitches as well. It's much harder for Crabbe to add an above-average pitch at this point in his career than it is for Garrett.

Crabbe is far, far more likely to reach the majors in some form, whether it's in the rotation or as a reliever, and he'll likely be a good player. But Garrett has the potential to be much more, and at this point in the rankings, that's a rare thing.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by The DARK

I'm not saying it's not a plus pitch, but it takes a seriously good fastball and slider to be a TOR starter on that alone. I'm just saying that getting that "best slider in the system" accolade from a single source doesn't mean he has enough to be a TOR starter.

I know this post is directed at doug, but from my viewpoint, I don't think anyone voting for Crabbe as the #18 prospect right now think he has enough right now to be a TOR starter. That being said, he has a lot going for him right now. He has the K rate. He has the improving control. He's already got two plus pitches. All he really needs to be a TOR arm is a third average pitch. I also think he is going to develop better control and I expect him to be the best starter in Pensacola this year.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by The DARK

I've got high hopes for Crabbe (he's actually next on my list, and given Garrett's lack of support, I'll probably vote for him next round), but that third pitch counts. You can't really hold Garrett's lack of a second plus pitch against him yet. Those first few years are very important in developing pitches, and you can bet that the coaches will be focusing on turning that secondary stuff into plus pitches as well. It's much harder for Crabbe to add an above-average pitch at this point in his career than it is for Garrett.

Crabbe is far, far more likely to reach the majors in some form, whether it's in the rotation or as a reliever, and he'll likely be a good player. But Garrett has the potential to be much more, and at this point in the rankings, that's a rare thing.

I don't necessarily understand why it would be harder for a guy who has already developed one plus off-speed pitch to develop another one. Guys add new pitches in the majors all of the time, so certainly you can't be arguing that he is too old to develop another one. Additionally, I don't think that third pitch needs to be above-average for him to be TOR arm. If he can throw an average change-up over the plate, I think that will allow his plus fastball and plus slider to dominate even more. Look at the results he put up in the hitter friendly California league without a third pitch. I can only imagine his numbers will only improve when adding a third pitch.

I also think Garrett has a chance to be another TOR arm, but he isn't a better prospect right now because he is three years behind Crabbe in the developmental curve and has no refined secondary pitches yet.

That being said, as soon as Crabbe is finally voted in, I will likely shift my support to Garrett. I like high upside arms over high floor players like LaMarre and Brodie Greene who have a better chance of making the bigs, but I don't think will do much when they get there. I like Garrett, he is just too far away for me to vote him in over Crabbe.

[dougdirt]

I will admit, I ranked Garrett higher than Crabbe. Crabbe, clearly and unequivocally is the better of the two right now and it isn't close. My reasoning was that Crabbe, despite his two very good pitches is still likely to wind up as a reliever. The Reds know his stuff and even they had him coming out of the bullpen 10+ times this season. Garrett, while much more raw and not nearly as good right now or even having two very good pitches (though I did see promising reports on his curveball), still has a chance to be a starter where as I think the chances are much lower for Crabbe. Still, I completely get either side of the argument.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I will admit, I ranked Garrett higher than Crabbe. Crabbe, clearly and unequivocally is the better of the two right now and it isn't close. My reasoning was that Crabbe, despite his two very good pitches is still likely to wind up as a reliever. The Reds know his stuff and even they had him coming out of the bullpen 10+ times this season. Garrett, while much more raw and not nearly as good right now or even having two very good pitches (though I did see promising reports on his curveball), still has a chance to be a starter where as I think the chances are much lower for Crabbe. Still, I completely get either side of the argument.

doug, the Reds' thinking changed a little towards the end of the season? While he started in the bullpen in 2011 for Dayton after exhibiting disastrous control in the Dragons 2010 rotation, Crabbe did start in his last 10 appearances. Do you think they could now see him as a starter now?

He did strike out 68 guys while only walking 22 in 60 1/3 IP. Thats a K:BB over 3 in that small sample size and his ERA was a stellar 3.28 in that stretch. I believe you said the league average ERA in California was 4.50.

Is there any chance now that the Reds now see what they have on their hands and allow him to start in the 2012 Pensacola rotation?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

doug, the Reds' thinking changed a little towards the end of the season? While he started in the bullpen in 2011 for Dayton after exhibiting disastrous control in the Dragons 2010 rotation, Crabbe did start in his last 10 appearances. Do you think they could now see him as a starter now?

He did strike out 68 guys while only walking 22 in 60 1/3 IP. Thats a K:BB over 3 in that small sample size and his ERA was a stellar 3.28 in that stretch. I believe you said the league average ERA in California was 4.50.

Is there any chance now that the Reds now see what they have on their hands and allow him to start in the 2012 Pensacola rotation?

His stuff didn't really change over that time though. He still needs another pitch that he doesn't really have right now. I would say there is a chance he starts next season, but I don't think his chances of starting in the Majors are more than 20% at this point because of the lack of that third pitch.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

His stuff didn't really change over that time though. He still needs another pitch that he doesn't really have right now. I would say there is a chance he starts next season, but I don't think his chances of starting in the Majors are more than 20% at this point because of the lack of that third pitch.

So you are of the opinion that since he has gone three years in the minors without a third pitch, he is unlikely to pick one up later? Why is that? How difficult can it be to throw a third pitch over the plate? I feel like you can't "teach" velocity, but you can easily "teach" a third pitch especially if the guy has already developed a plus secondary pitch.

I never pitched growing up, so I just don't get how hard it is to throw a different grip on the ball and let 'er rip.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

So you are of the opinion that since he has gone three years in the minors without a third pitch, he is unlikely to pick one up later? Why is that? How difficult can it be to throw a third pitch over the plate? I feel like you can't "teach" velocity, but you can easily "teach" a third pitch especially if the guy has already developed a plus secondary pitch.

I never pitched growing up, so I just don't get how hard it is to throw a different grip on the ball and let 'er rip.

I guess the fact that he has gone three years without finding one suggests he won't. Toss in the fact that because he hasn't done it to this point, the odds aren't good he remains a starter much longer and that coaches have him focus on just two pitches. As for being able to throw it over the plate, well that is much tougher. Especially when we are talking about a guy like Crabbe, who while he improved his control this year, isn't exactly a guy who pounds the strikezone.