Who is Redszone's #22 prospect?

[camisadelgolf]

#1 C Devin Mesoraco
#2 SS Billy Hamilton
#3 SS Zack Cozart
#4 RHP Dan Corcino
#5 RHP Robert Stephenson
#6 1B Neftali Soto
#7 OF Yorman Rodriguez
#8 UT Todd Frazier
#9 SS Didi Gregorius
#10 2B Henry Rodriguez
#11 LHP Tony Cingrani
#12 OF Juan Duran
#13 RHP Kyle Lotzkar
#14 3B Gabriel Rosa
#15 C Tucker Barnhart
#16 3B David Vidal
#17 RHP J.C. Sulbaran
#18 OF Ryan LaMarre
#19 1B Donald Lutz
#20 OF Denis Phipps
#21 RHP Tim Crabbe

[HokieRed]

Villareal. Same logic as last time. Very good K to W, improvement at the end of the year.

[mace]

I'm still liking Drew Hayes but think that Brodie Greene has a better shot here, and is worthy.

[Edd Roush]

Now that Crabbe has finally won a vote, I am moving on to Amir Garrett. Amir has ace upside if everything were to go right. He is just very raw and very far from the major leagues. I love the high upside arms and Amir has a plus fastball with two developing offerings. For those who like having lefty starters, he is also a lefty starter but that doesn't really move the dial on his status in my mind.

[Scrap Irony]

Still voting Judy.

Has gone through all the minor league levels and shown adeptness across all levels. Likely will help the Reds this season as a middle reliever or more.

At this point, the surety of help trumps the high ceiling of teenagers that may end up being great in five years. Because most of those teenagers end up pretty much useless in the long run.

Or, to put it another way, if Amir Garrett happens to have a career similar to Judy, he's in the extreme minority.

[izzy's dad]

I voted for Ryan Wright, but I really wanted to go with Sean Buckley. I like Buckley's power potential, but I think Wright is the more polished player right now.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Still voting Judy.

Has gone through all the minor league levels and shown adeptness across all levels. Likely will help the Reds this season as a middle reliever or more.

At this point, the surety of help trumps the high ceiling of teenagers that may end up being great in five years. Because most of those teenagers end up pretty much useless in the long run.

Or, to put it another way, if Amir Garrett happens to have a career similar to Judy, he's in the extreme minority.

Scrap, I was going back and forth between Garrett and Judy. I agree with your argument that many young pitchers are pretty useless, but those that aren't happen to be the most valuable commodity in baseball. Young, stud pitchers who cost their team very little and perform way above their contract. These are the kind of prospects the Reds need to accumulate in bunches so even with the high attrition rate, hopefully the farm is producing major league starters every couple years.

Josh Judy has a lot of value. He is far more polished than Garrett and obviously much closer to the bigs. He is the better pitcher right now. He is much more likely to help the Reds. However, Judy is never going to be an ace, nor is he likely to pitch more than 60 innings a year for the Reds. Garrett has the physical tools to be an ace and be a cornerstone for this franchise in 6-8 years. Is it likely? Heck no. Could it happen? Yes.

[*BaseClogger*]

Stalin is the coolest first name ever!



I hope he has a mustache!

[The DARK]

Going back to Garrett. That upside is through the roof, and at this point in the proceedings everyone left is either coming off a terrible season, has limited upside, or is an unknown. I'll go with an unknown that we spent $1 million on.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

Scrap, I was going back and forth between Garrett and Judy. I agree with your argument that many young pitchers are pretty useless, but those that aren't happen to be the most valuable commodity in baseball. Young, stud pitchers who cost their team very little and perform way above their contract. These are the kind of prospects the Reds need to accumulate in bunches so even with the high attrition rate, hopefully the farm is producing major league starters every couple years.

Josh Judy has a lot of value. He is far more polished than Garrett and obviously much closer to the bigs. He is the better pitcher right now. He is much more likely to help the Reds. However, Judy is never going to be an ace, nor is he likely to pitch more than 60 innings a year for the Reds. Garrett has the physical tools to be an ace and be a cornerstone for this franchise in 6-8 years. Is it likely? Heck no. Could it happen? Yes.

I get what you're saying, too, Edd. Upside like Garrett's is nice to see this low in a prospect list. IMO, however, upside is too often focused on without an idea for the gamut prospects have to prove themselves on. For every Amir Garrett, there are ten Thomas Pauly's. No, twenty.

So, I tend to value that upside less until it's shown itself in multiple professional seasons. That gives me an idea of how that arm plays against others that are just as ballyhooed-- or deserve to be.

Judy has crossed every minor league bridge he's needed to with colors flying high. He's going to pitch in the major leagues. Amir Garrett hasn't even thrown a professional inning. Until a year ago, he wasn't even a baseball player.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I get what you're saying, too, Edd. Upside like Garrett's is nice to see this low in a prospect list. IMO, however, upside is too often focused on without an idea for the gamut prospects have to prove themselves on. For every Amir Garrett, there are ten Thomas Pauly's. No, twenty.

So, I tend to value that upside less until it's shown itself in multiple professional seasons. That gives me an idea of how that arm plays against others that are just as ballyhooed-- or deserve to be.

Judy has crossed every minor league bridge he's needed to with colors flying high. He's going to pitch in the major leagues. Amir Garrett hasn't even thrown a professional inning. Until a year ago, he wasn't even a baseball player.

Another way to look at it though is this.... assume that Garrett could be traded (since new draftees can't be traded until a year after they sign), who would be more valuable on the trade market between the two? It might be Judy, but I bet it wouldn't be by much even though Judy can probably step onto the MLB field tomorrow.

And Garrett has played baseball for a while. He just didn't play as much in high school because he was focusing on basketball. He pitched two years for his high school team, then took off his junior season for basketball. He didn't pitch as a senior either for his team, but did work out and pitch with a coach to prepare for the MLB draft.